Latest: Glassnode Market Pulse Sep 29 — BTC bounced $84K — profit-taking dominating — NUPL hit 14.25 start of week highest since January — realized profit/loss ratio 0.8 → 1.4 week — "strongly suggests market environment dominated by profit-taking activities" — rise driven by spot ETF inflows, sold into by perps + existing holders — BTC $83,472 Binance -1.66%, Upbit 113.357M won -0.17%*
- *7-day realized: $5.1B net profits last 7 days — described as moderate — closer to late-2023 levels not major tops — well below 2024-2025 peak spikes — but profit-taking surged vs prior week — Week On-Chain: fraction of prior peaks — Realized Price floor: BTC did not close single day below Realized Price this bear phase — unlike 2018-19 and 2022-23 extended periods under — absence of systemic collapse like LUNA/3AC/FTX*
- *Your 74% number: That's Glassnode long-term mean — all-time mean 74% — historical reference: >83% = euphoric phase start — recent readings: 69.3% in profit above high band Sep 8 Market Pulse — Hot Capital Share 27.5%→30.1% above 22.8% upper band — futures OI $37.1B above band, options $40.1B — 70-75% addresses in profit during prior downturn much higher than 45-50% in 2018 bear*
- *Risk: Elevated profitability + high reactive short-term capital + negative vol spread -20.87% + call skew -2.05% — setup historically raises risk sharp move either direction — $84-85K long-term holder supply cluster key — MVRV mean $96.7K next resistance if holds above*
*BREAKING 🚨 Glassnode: Profit-taking dominates as NUPL hits 14.25 high since Jan 📈 Realized P/L ratio 0.8→1.4, $5.1B net profits 7d moderate vs tops — BTC $84K bounce on ETF inflows sold by holders — supply in profit 69.3% above band, mean 74% — Hot Capital 30.1% >22.8% — warns stretched profitability risks volatility ⚡ $NMR $GRASS $CELO
- *7-day realized: $5.1B net profits last 7 days — described as moderate — closer to late-2023 levels not major tops — well below 2024-2025 peak spikes — but profit-taking surged vs prior week — Week On-Chain: fraction of prior peaks — Realized Price floor: BTC did not close single day below Realized Price this bear phase — unlike 2018-19 and 2022-23 extended periods under — absence of systemic collapse like LUNA/3AC/FTX*
- *Your 74% number: That's Glassnode long-term mean — all-time mean 74% — historical reference: >83% = euphoric phase start — recent readings: 69.3% in profit above high band Sep 8 Market Pulse — Hot Capital Share 27.5%→30.1% above 22.8% upper band — futures OI $37.1B above band, options $40.1B — 70-75% addresses in profit during prior downturn much higher than 45-50% in 2018 bear*
- *Risk: Elevated profitability + high reactive short-term capital + negative vol spread -20.87% + call skew -2.05% — setup historically raises risk sharp move either direction — $84-85K long-term holder supply cluster key — MVRV mean $96.7K next resistance if holds above*
*BREAKING 🚨 Glassnode: Profit-taking dominates as NUPL hits 14.25 high since Jan 📈 Realized P/L ratio 0.8→1.4, $5.1B net profits 7d moderate vs tops — BTC $84K bounce on ETF inflows sold by holders — supply in profit 69.3% above band, mean 74% — Hot Capital 30.1% >22.8% — warns stretched profitability risks volatility ⚡ $NMR $GRASS $CELO
