Bitcoin's Cohort Basis Cycle Index (CBCI) measures how profitable each group of holders is, sorted by how long they have held, compared with that group's own history, on a 0 to 100 scale. As of September 26, 2026, the index reads 47.7. That is up from 2.6 on June 30, the lowest reading in the past year. The index now sits just below 50, the line I treat as the start of Neutral Bull territory.

The recovery is uneven. Coins held 1 to 12 months read 68.5, just below the 70 level that has marked top-forming conditions in my framework. The youngest band, held 1 to 3 months, sits at 92.5. Coins held 1 to 3 years read only 15 to 19. These are mostly buyers from the 2025 highs, and their position is still weak relative to their own history.

The investor picture follows from that. Recent buyers hold unusually large gains, which raises the pull to take profit. The mid-cycle cohort has only just recovered from deep losses, and some of it may sell near its breakeven. Both groups add supply at the same time. That fits with price stalling below 88K this week.

In fifteen years of daily data, a rebound from below 10 to above 45 within six months has happened only twice before, in May 2019 and March 2023. Neither case fell back below 25 over the next six months. Their price paths split, though, and two cases prove nothing. A clean move above 50, led by longer holders rising, would broaden the base. A drop back below 30 would suggest the rally ran only on recent buyers.

The zones are my own framework, and each reading is ranked against a history that is still growing.

Statistics, not advice.

Written by Crazzyblockk