🤔Trump reportedly rejects the 7-day plan, the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz faces new changes
Trump rejected Iran's 7-day plan, and the expectation of reopening the Strait of Hormuz was pushed back again.
Iran previously said that as long as the US lifts the maritime blockade and relaxes oil sanctions, the strait would reopen within 7 days. When the news came out, Brent crude oil briefly dropped more than 4%, and the market really thought tensions would ease. But Trump immediately rejected it and is still considering resuming military operations after the midterm elections in November. Oil prices immediately rebounded, WTI rose 1.38%, Brent rose 0.93%.
The impact of this on BTC is still the same old chain. When oil prices rebound, inflation expectations won't come down, and the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increases again. The probability of a rate hike in October was already above 70%, and now there is even less reason to ease. US Treasury yields remain above 5%, keeping the opportunity cost of non-interest-bearing assets too high. BTC is fluctuating around 85,000, with strong resistance between 87,000 and 88,000 above, and key support at 84,000 below. As long as oil prices do not fall back, macro pressure cannot be relieved.
In terms of operations, don't bet on the negotiation results. Trump changes his mind faster than flipping a page; he rejected it today, but might negotiate again tomorrow. Wait until the situation becomes clear or oil prices establish a trend before considering action. At this point, watching more and acting less is better than acting recklessly. $BTC $ETH $SOL
Trump rejected Iran's 7-day plan, and the expectation of reopening the Strait of Hormuz was pushed back again.
Iran previously said that as long as the US lifts the maritime blockade and relaxes oil sanctions, the strait would reopen within 7 days. When the news came out, Brent crude oil briefly dropped more than 4%, and the market really thought tensions would ease. But Trump immediately rejected it and is still considering resuming military operations after the midterm elections in November. Oil prices immediately rebounded, WTI rose 1.38%, Brent rose 0.93%.
The impact of this on BTC is still the same old chain. When oil prices rebound, inflation expectations won't come down, and the urgency for the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates increases again. The probability of a rate hike in October was already above 70%, and now there is even less reason to ease. US Treasury yields remain above 5%, keeping the opportunity cost of non-interest-bearing assets too high. BTC is fluctuating around 85,000, with strong resistance between 87,000 and 88,000 above, and key support at 84,000 below. As long as oil prices do not fall back, macro pressure cannot be relieved.
In terms of operations, don't bet on the negotiation results. Trump changes his mind faster than flipping a page; he rejected it today, but might negotiate again tomorrow. Wait until the situation becomes clear or oil prices establish a trend before considering action. At this point, watching more and acting less is better than acting recklessly. $BTC $ETH $SOL
