Metals diverge as gold faces yield pressure while copper and zinc remain supported by physical tightness
🟡 Gold fell about 2–2.3% during Sep 21–25 to around $4,280–4,288/oz, while silver lost roughly 4%. The main pressure came from the US 10-year Treasury yield rising above 5% and the DXY holding near 101, increasing the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets despite ongoing Middle East risks.
📉 The move appears more like a repricing of rate expectations than a broad exit from precious metals. Gold speculative positioning remains heavily net long, while GLD holdings only declined modestly on Sep 24.
🔶 Copper moved in the opposite direction. LME 3-month copper held near $14,620–14,630/t, while COMEX briefly reached around $15,060/t. Cash-to-3-month backwardation widened to roughly $125/t, showing that immediately available metal still commands a strong premium despite a firmer dollar.
⚙️ Zinc also remained relatively tight, with backwardation near $106/t. Deeply negative treatment charges in China and Nyrstar’s review of the Budel smelter added further supply concerns. Nickel was weaker as inventories continued to build.
🏗️ Iron ore did not follow copper higher. Prices stayed near CNY 713–715/t on Dalian and $95–96/t on SGX, while Chinese port inventories rose to about 145.45 million tonnes. Pre-Golden Week restocking helped, but weak steel margins and blast-furnace maintenance limited demand.
📌 This was not a uniform risk-off week for metals. Precious metals remain driven mainly by yields and the dollar, while copper and zinc are still supported by physical tightness. US PCE will be key for gold and silver, while China’s post-holiday demand will matter more for copper and iron ore.
#Metals $XAU $XAG $XCU
🟡 Gold fell about 2–2.3% during Sep 21–25 to around $4,280–4,288/oz, while silver lost roughly 4%. The main pressure came from the US 10-year Treasury yield rising above 5% and the DXY holding near 101, increasing the opportunity cost of non-yielding assets despite ongoing Middle East risks.
📉 The move appears more like a repricing of rate expectations than a broad exit from precious metals. Gold speculative positioning remains heavily net long, while GLD holdings only declined modestly on Sep 24.
🔶 Copper moved in the opposite direction. LME 3-month copper held near $14,620–14,630/t, while COMEX briefly reached around $15,060/t. Cash-to-3-month backwardation widened to roughly $125/t, showing that immediately available metal still commands a strong premium despite a firmer dollar.
⚙️ Zinc also remained relatively tight, with backwardation near $106/t. Deeply negative treatment charges in China and Nyrstar’s review of the Budel smelter added further supply concerns. Nickel was weaker as inventories continued to build.
🏗️ Iron ore did not follow copper higher. Prices stayed near CNY 713–715/t on Dalian and $95–96/t on SGX, while Chinese port inventories rose to about 145.45 million tonnes. Pre-Golden Week restocking helped, but weak steel margins and blast-furnace maintenance limited demand.
📌 This was not a uniform risk-off week for metals. Precious metals remain driven mainly by yields and the dollar, while copper and zinc are still supported by physical tightness. US PCE will be key for gold and silver, while China’s post-holiday demand will matter more for copper and iron ore.
#Metals $XAU $XAG $XCU
