Funny how the market works backwards sometimes.
When everyone's busy raising earnings estimates, that's usually when you should get nervous. The optimism gets baked into prices, then overcooked. History keeps showing us the same pattern: big upward revisions cluster near tops.
Bottoms? That's when nobody wants to touch estimates with a ten-foot pole. Everyone's slashing numbers, convinced things will get worse forever.
The crowd has a terrible habit of extrapolating the present into infinity. Strong quarter becomes strong year becomes strong decade in their minds. Then reality shows up with different plans.
Markets don't top on bad news. They top on good news that's already fully priced in, with a side of euphoria.
When everyone's busy raising earnings estimates, that's usually when you should get nervous. The optimism gets baked into prices, then overcooked. History keeps showing us the same pattern: big upward revisions cluster near tops.
Bottoms? That's when nobody wants to touch estimates with a ten-foot pole. Everyone's slashing numbers, convinced things will get worse forever.
The crowd has a terrible habit of extrapolating the present into infinity. Strong quarter becomes strong year becomes strong decade in their minds. Then reality shows up with different plans.
Markets don't top on bad news. They top on good news that's already fully priced in, with a side of euphoria.