According to a CryptoQuant report, Bitcoin has recovered to around $86,000, while several on-chain indicators now point to a possible new bull phase.

BTC has reclaimed its 365-day moving average near $80,500, a level that previously marked major cycle shifts. CryptoQuant’s Bull Score has also returned to 80 after moving into bullish territory in mid-August.

Long-term holder activity is equally important. Around 539,000 BTC were sold between $77.1K and $80.2K, yet the market absorbed that supply and moved higher. The next major supply cluster sits around $88K–$91K.

However, caution remains. ERC20 stablecoin supply has fallen from its recent peak to about $143.6B, suggesting that broad crypto liquidity is not yet expanding strongly.

So the picture is mixed: the long-term structure looks bullish, but liquidity remains weaker than in a full-scale risk-on market. High interest rates, rising leverage, and the approaching U.S. midterm elections could also increase volatility.

My view: this is not a market to chase blindly. Be prepared for both a breakout above $90K and a pullback toward the low-$80K area.

Written by XWIN Japan