Confirmed — Lee said it last night after the hike.
$AVA $ONE $GENIUS
*Tom Lee, Fundstrat, Sep 17 video (Game of Thrones / Simpsons edit):*
- Called FOMC " *peak hawkish Fed* / max hawkish stance" — unanimous hike to 3.75-4.00%, "as hawkish as it could have been" per TwentyFour AM, but leaves room to pivot
- Face-ripping rally he called for *still coming, just delayed* — waterfall decline + rising RSI divergence = same setup as August rally
- Incrementally dovish catalysts ahead: new PCE methodology at month-end could cut YoY by 0.4pp, other Fed speakers likely walk back Warsh tone
Today's action fits his call so far:
- S&P futures +0.81%, Nasdaq +1.04%, Asia +0.3% after 3 straight S&P down days
- 2Y yield slipped 2bp to 4.71% after hitting 2024 highs
Difference from your text: Lee doesn't say "violent move creates max hawkish" — he says *statement + presser was peak hawkish, data now turns dovish*, so equity bounce is delayed, not cancelled. He still expects only that one dot left this year, not continued hiking cycle.
If his PCE call is right, Goldman's Oct hike bet could get repriced back to pause.#ParadigmDisclosesZECHolding #USWeeklyJoblessClaimsFallTo196K
$AVA $ONE $GENIUS
*Tom Lee, Fundstrat, Sep 17 video (Game of Thrones / Simpsons edit):*
- Called FOMC " *peak hawkish Fed* / max hawkish stance" — unanimous hike to 3.75-4.00%, "as hawkish as it could have been" per TwentyFour AM, but leaves room to pivot
- Face-ripping rally he called for *still coming, just delayed* — waterfall decline + rising RSI divergence = same setup as August rally
- Incrementally dovish catalysts ahead: new PCE methodology at month-end could cut YoY by 0.4pp, other Fed speakers likely walk back Warsh tone
Today's action fits his call so far:
- S&P futures +0.81%, Nasdaq +1.04%, Asia +0.3% after 3 straight S&P down days
- 2Y yield slipped 2bp to 4.71% after hitting 2024 highs
Difference from your text: Lee doesn't say "violent move creates max hawkish" — he says *statement + presser was peak hawkish, data now turns dovish*, so equity bounce is delayed, not cancelled. He still expects only that one dot left this year, not continued hiking cycle.
If his PCE call is right, Goldman's Oct hike bet could get repriced back to pause.#ParadigmDisclosesZECHolding #USWeeklyJoblessClaimsFallTo196K
