The 25bp Hike Isn’t the Real Risk 👀
August CPI came in hotter, with headline inflation rising 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, while core CPI increased 0.3%.
For me, the key question at this FOMC is no longer simply whether the Fed hikes 25bp.
The real question is:
Is this a one-off hike, or the beginning of another tightening cycle?
If Powell signals that further hikes are limited, an initial sell-off in $BTC and tech stocks could quickly reverse as markets price in less tightening ahead.
But if the Fed stays aggressively hawkish, higher yields and a stronger dollar would likely remain a headwind for risk assets.
Gold is more complicated: higher real yields hurt, but persistent inflation can keep safe-haven demand alive.
My plan is simple: don’t chase the first FOMC candle.
I’ll watch Treasury yields → DXY → Nasdaq → BTC before deciding the next move.
The market may already be pricing the hike. What matters is what comes next.
#FedRateWatch #fomc
August CPI came in hotter, with headline inflation rising 0.4% MoM and 3.4% YoY, while core CPI increased 0.3%.
For me, the key question at this FOMC is no longer simply whether the Fed hikes 25bp.
The real question is:
Is this a one-off hike, or the beginning of another tightening cycle?
If Powell signals that further hikes are limited, an initial sell-off in $BTC and tech stocks could quickly reverse as markets price in less tightening ahead.
But if the Fed stays aggressively hawkish, higher yields and a stronger dollar would likely remain a headwind for risk assets.
Gold is more complicated: higher real yields hurt, but persistent inflation can keep safe-haven demand alive.
My plan is simple: don’t chase the first FOMC candle.
I’ll watch Treasury yields → DXY → Nasdaq → BTC before deciding the next move.
The market may already be pricing the hike. What matters is what comes next.
#FedRateWatch #fomc
