Nobody's actually talking about the part that matters.
Yeah, a hike is basically locked in. 90% odds, CPI came in hot, everyone already knows. That's not the trade. The trade is the fifteen minutes after, when Powell opens his mouth and either confirms "one and done" or drops a hint that there's more coming before year end.
Here's my read: hike plus dovish tone, $NVDAB
$BTC
and tech dip on the headline then claw it back in a day or two. Same script we've seen all year, sell the rumor, buy the confirmed pause. Gold's the one worth watching though. It doesn't need bad news, it just needs the uncertainty to stick around.
I'm not opening anything new until the presser's over. The number doesn't move me. The tone does.
One hike and done, or is this the start of something longer? Curious what you're all trading.
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