THE 90% HIKE SCENARIO
Core CPI just hit 0.3% month-over-month.
That's the catalyst. 90% odds of a 25bp hike THIS WEEK.
Here's what matters:
This isn't a one-time adjustment. This is the Fed signaling: inflation isn't dead yet.
If they hike, it breaks the "rate cuts only" narrative that's been driving markets since March.
The question isn't "will they hike?" (90% odds say yes).
The real question is: "Is this a one-off, or the start of a longer hiking cycle?"
One-off: Technical adjustment, markets shrug it off
Longer cycle: Fed tightens again, risk-on gets crushed
I'm watching the Powell statement closely. If he signals "restrictive for longer," that's cycle confirmation.
What's your read?
Do you think one hike ends it, or is this the start of tightening 2.0?
$BTC
#FedRateWatch
Core CPI just hit 0.3% month-over-month.
That's the catalyst. 90% odds of a 25bp hike THIS WEEK.
Here's what matters:
This isn't a one-time adjustment. This is the Fed signaling: inflation isn't dead yet.
If they hike, it breaks the "rate cuts only" narrative that's been driving markets since March.
The question isn't "will they hike?" (90% odds say yes).
The real question is: "Is this a one-off, or the start of a longer hiking cycle?"
One-off: Technical adjustment, markets shrug it off
Longer cycle: Fed tightens again, risk-on gets crushed
I'm watching the Powell statement closely. If he signals "restrictive for longer," that's cycle confirmation.
What's your read?
Do you think one hike ends it, or is this the start of tightening 2.0?
$BTC
#FedRateWatch
