FOMC September: What's The Fed's Next Move?
August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, and the odds of a 25bp hike this week are now close to 90%. The key question is whether this would be a one-off move or the start of a longer hiking cycle.
The Hike
A 25bp hike is largely priced in. The market's next move will depend on the Fed's tone. A "one and done" signal could support risk assets, while hints of further hikes would likely keep volatility elevated.
Bitcoin
Higher rates and a stronger dollar typically pressure risk assets in the short term. However, if the hike is already priced in and the statement is balanced, BTC could see a relief bounce. The main thing to watch is whether BTC holds its current range.
Tech Stocks
Tech is sensitive to rates, and a hawkish Fed weighs on growth valuations. If the hike turns out to be a one-off, beaten-down AI and chip stocks could become buy-the-dip candidates.
Gold
Gold faces a tug-of-war: higher rates and a stronger dollar are headwinds, while recession fears and geopolitical risk provide support. A hawkish hike may cause a dip; a dovish signal could push gold higher.
My Trade Plan
Avoid heavy leverage before the FOMC decision.
Wait for the statement and press conference.
Hawkish: stay defensive, watch USD and yields.
One-off or dovish: look for recovery trades in BTC, tech, and gold.
Risk management comes before prediction.
Your view:
Do you expect a hike this week?
One-off or the start of a longer hiking cycle?
Bullish or bearish on BTC, tech stocks, and gold after the decision?
Share your BTC, stocks, or gold trade/holdings with the trade sharing widget.
#FedRateWatch
Not financial advice. DYOR.
$SAGA
$AKE
$BR
August core CPI rose 0.3% month-over-month, and the odds of a 25bp hike this week are now close to 90%. The key question is whether this would be a one-off move or the start of a longer hiking cycle.
The Hike
A 25bp hike is largely priced in. The market's next move will depend on the Fed's tone. A "one and done" signal could support risk assets, while hints of further hikes would likely keep volatility elevated.
Bitcoin
Higher rates and a stronger dollar typically pressure risk assets in the short term. However, if the hike is already priced in and the statement is balanced, BTC could see a relief bounce. The main thing to watch is whether BTC holds its current range.
Tech Stocks
Tech is sensitive to rates, and a hawkish Fed weighs on growth valuations. If the hike turns out to be a one-off, beaten-down AI and chip stocks could become buy-the-dip candidates.
Gold
Gold faces a tug-of-war: higher rates and a stronger dollar are headwinds, while recession fears and geopolitical risk provide support. A hawkish hike may cause a dip; a dovish signal could push gold higher.
My Trade Plan
Avoid heavy leverage before the FOMC decision.
Wait for the statement and press conference.
Hawkish: stay defensive, watch USD and yields.
One-off or dovish: look for recovery trades in BTC, tech, and gold.
Risk management comes before prediction.
Your view:
Do you expect a hike this week?
One-off or the start of a longer hiking cycle?
Bullish or bearish on BTC, tech stocks, and gold after the decision?
Share your BTC, stocks, or gold trade/holdings with the trade sharing widget.
#FedRateWatch
Not financial advice. DYOR.
$SAGA
$AKE
$BR
