FOMC SEPTEMBER: THE 25BP MOVE ISN’T THE WHOLE STORY
The interesting part of this week isn’t just whether the Fed hikes by 25bp. It’s what Powell says after the decision.
August core CPI came in at 0.3% MoM, showing that inflation still isn’t completely under control. At the same time, the market is assigning a very high probability to a hike.
But here’s where it gets tricky:
If this is a one-off move, markets could eventually look past it. BTC and tech stocks may find room to recover if future hikes aren’t signaled.
If it’s the beginning of a longer tightening cycle, the picture changes. Higher yields can pressure risk assets, while gold may face competing forces from rates, inflation and safe-haven demand.
So I’m not choosing “bullish” or “bearish” based only on the 25bp headline.
I’m watching the Fed’s forward guidance. That’s where the real signal could be.
#FedRateWatch
$AKE
$POWER
$ACE
The interesting part of this week isn’t just whether the Fed hikes by 25bp. It’s what Powell says after the decision.
August core CPI came in at 0.3% MoM, showing that inflation still isn’t completely under control. At the same time, the market is assigning a very high probability to a hike.
But here’s where it gets tricky:
If this is a one-off move, markets could eventually look past it. BTC and tech stocks may find room to recover if future hikes aren’t signaled.
If it’s the beginning of a longer tightening cycle, the picture changes. Higher yields can pressure risk assets, while gold may face competing forces from rates, inflation and safe-haven demand.
So I’m not choosing “bullish” or “bearish” based only on the 25bp headline.
I’m watching the Fed’s forward guidance. That’s where the real signal could be.
#FedRateWatch
$AKE
$POWER
$ACE