At the moment, BTCUSD is maintaining a fairly clear and easy-to-read bearish structure. Price continues to be rejected by the descending trendline, forming lower highs while trading around or below the Ichimoku Cloud. The fact that recent rebounds have failed to break above the 77.9K–78.6K area suggests that buyers are still struggling, while selling pressure has yet to leave the market.
Combined with the recent macro backdrop, the picture increasingly favors sellers. Hotter-than-expected U.S. inflation has significantly increased expectations that the Fed could raise interest rates this week, while U.S. Treasury yields remain elevated. At the same time, Bitcoin ETF flows have weakened recently, with several consecutive sessions of net outflows. This is not an ideal environment for a liquidity-sensitive asset like Bitcoin, especially as the market enters a crucial week with the Fed’s policy decision ahead.
In the short term, if BTC remains capped below 77.9K–78.6K, I expect selling pressure to return. A loss of the current support area could send price toward 75.8K first; if bearish momentum continues to build, 73K would become the next major downside target to watch this week.
However, BTC is still trading near support, so short-term rebounds are entirely possible. In my view, these rallies are more likely to represent pullbacks within the bearish structure than a genuine trend reversal. As long as the descending trendline and overhead resistance remain intact, I continue to favor SELL setups on rebounds with confirmation.
