Michael Faulkender nennt die nächste Fed-Zinserhöhung nächste Woche einen Fehler, während Bitcoin (BTC) auf das FOMC wartet

COINOTAG · 2026-09-14T02:40:31.000Z

• Michael Faulkender sagt, dass der jüngste US-Inflationsdruck fast vollständig von Energiepreisen ausgegangen sei. • Der US-CPI für August stieg um 0,4% im Monatsvergleich und um 3,4% im Jahresvergleich. • Zinshoffnungen preisen grob 85% Wahrscheinlichkeit für eine Fed-Erhöhung um 25 Basispunkte am 17. September ein. Faulkender: Energie hat den Inflations-Print angetrieben Michael Faulkender, der als stellvertretender US-Finanzminister für Wirtschaftspolitik tätig war, sagte am 13. September, dass ein zusätzlicher Zinsschritt der Federal Reserve eine politische Fehlentscheidung wäre. Er argumentierte, dass nahezu der gesamte jüngste Inflationsdruck aus dem Energiesektor stamme, nicht aus der zugrunde liegenden Nachfrage. Ohne Energie und mit Erdöl verbundenen Produkte, so hielt er fest, liege das Preiswachstum bereits nahe am Fed-Ziel von 2% — was eine zusätzliche Anhebung um die zusätzliche Kernbegründung beraube. Auf die Frage nach dem August-Consumer-Price-Index, der um 0,4% im Monatsvergleich und um 3,4% im Jahresvergleich gestiegen war, erwiderte er, dass sich die nahezu gesamte jüngste Bewegung der Preise auf Energie zurückführen lasse. Und dass die Herausnahme von erdölbezogenen Positionen wie Flugpreisen den Wert auf rund 2% senke.

• Michael Faulkender says recent US inflation pressure came almost entirely from energy prices.
• August US CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year.
• Rate futures price roughly 85% odds of a 25 basis point Fed hike on September 17.
Faulkender: Energy Drove the Inflation Print
Michael Faulkender, who served as Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, said on September 13 that an additional Federal Reserve rate hike would be a policy mistake, arguing that nearly all of the recent inflation pressure has come from energy rather than underlying demand. Excluding energy and petroleum-linked products, he maintained, price growth is already running close to the Fed's 2% target — which strips an extra hike of its core justification. Asked about the August consumer price index, up 0.4% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year, he replied that virtually the entire recent move in prices traces back to energy, and that stripping out petroleum-related items such as airfares brings the reading down to roughly 2%.
In his assessment, markets have already priced next week's move almost fully, so the direct economic effect would be limited; the hike, he suggested, functions mainly as a signal that Kevin Warsh is serious about defending price stability. On mortgage rates, he pushed back on the notion that short-term increases deliver long-term relief, contending that the durable fix is fiscal: Congress correcting the long-running deficit so investors see that deficit-driven debt will not be monetized. Faulkender also rejected the $5,000 dividend proposal floated by the Trump camp, pointing to the roughly 9% inflation surge that followed the 2021 round of $2,000 checks — in his framing, injecting fresh cash into an economy where too much money already chases too few goods is the last thing to do. Lasting relief, he argued, should come from the supply side: expanding energy output, raising productivity through AI, easing housing supply constraints and trimming regulations that raise business costs. He closed by citing the first Trump term, when real median household income rose by about $6,000 as wage gains and tax cuts outpaced inflation — a record he wants policy to replicate rather than repeat the 2021 stimulus.
Fed Week: Dot Plot and 85% Odds
Those comments land days before a decision that rate futures already treat as close to certain. Pricing as of this weekend implies roughly an 85% probability of a 25 basis point hike at the Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 17, with the statement, economic projections and dot plot due at 02:00 UTC and a press conference following 30 minutes later. Attention has shifted from whether the Fed hikes to what the projections signal: whether the median official still projects further moves within 2026, and whether the 2027 easing path narrows again. A higher median path would lift Treasury yields and the dollar and press high-valuation technology shares; a less hawkish set of dots would force the opposite repricing.
The week is crowded beyond the Fed. UK August CPI lands on September 16, the last major print before the Bank of England's decision, with service prices and core inflation the key reads and energy pass-through worth monitoring. The same session brings US August retail sales and import-export price data; July retail sales fell 0.6% month-over-month, so the update will test whether consumption is holding up as fuel and living costs rise. Surveyed economists broadly expect the Bank of England to hold at 3.75% on September 17, with focus on the vote split and the pace of gilt runoff. On September 18, the Bank of Japan is widely expected to raise rates 25 basis points to 1.25%. A hawkish surprise there would strengthen the yen and add pressure to unwind yield farming-style carry positioning, hitting liquidity-sensitive assets from high-valuation equities to the leveraged books that crypto whale desks build — and to the speculative tail of the market where ICO-era risk appetite and retail copy trading flows have historically re-priced first.
Bitcoin's $78K Level in Play
COINOTAG's aggregate market data still reads greedy: the Fear & Greed Index sits at 57/100, Bitcoin (BTC) holds 68.1% of our tracked universe at $77,601 as of writing, and total tracked market cap stands near $2.29 trillion — positioning that leaves little cushion if the dot plot skews hawkish this week.