hike odds, update
before the CPI print i posted that the market was leaning toward a rate increase. the print landed, and Polymarket went from 59% to 81% on a quarter-point hike for September 15-16
and $BTC bounced. from below $77,000 to above $78,000. on news that makes a hike more likely
look inside the print though:
- headline 3.4% over 12 months
- core 2.4%
- energy up 16.3%, gasoline alone over a third of the monthly increase
so if they hike, it's into an oil shock, with Brent still above $100. first hike since July 2023
and most of the bounce is already gone. 77,099 now, -3.2% on the week
my rule from last time hasn't changed, nothing new opens before the decision. i hold no BTC, for what it's worth
anyway. 81% is a betting market, not a decision)
#FederalReserve
before the CPI print i posted that the market was leaning toward a rate increase. the print landed, and Polymarket went from 59% to 81% on a quarter-point hike for September 15-16
and $BTC bounced. from below $77,000 to above $78,000. on news that makes a hike more likely
look inside the print though:
- headline 3.4% over 12 months
- core 2.4%
- energy up 16.3%, gasoline alone over a third of the monthly increase
so if they hike, it's into an oil shock, with Brent still above $100. first hike since July 2023
and most of the bounce is already gone. 77,099 now, -3.2% on the week
my rule from last time hasn't changed, nothing new opens before the decision. i hold no BTC, for what it's worth
anyway. 81% is a betting market, not a decision)
#FederalReserve