Odds of a Fed hike jumped from 58.4% to 86.4% in seven days, and if you're trading off "hike day itself won't hurt much," the historical data actually agrees, right up until it doesn't. Analyst Sherlock ran the numbers across all 20 Fed hikes since 2015. BTC actually closed higher on 11 of those 20 decision days. Read stopping at the announcement, that looks bullish, or at worst neutral. Here's the catch. On 10 of those 11 green days, Bitcoin was still trading below that same closing price a month later. The initial reaction was misleading almost every time. Across the full sample, #BTC was lower 30 days out in 17 of 20 cases, dipping below the decision-day price at some point in the following month in 19 of 20. Median drawdown in that window was 9.3%, which off a $78,000 base would put BTC near $70,700. What stands out to me is the gap between the day-of reaction and what plays out over the following weeks, those are functionally two different trades, and conflating them is probably the most common mistake in how people position around FOMC. Worth noting the tail risk explicitly, this isn't a random hike, it's the start of a fresh tightening cycle, which historically hits harder. After the first hike in December 2015, BTC lost 19% in 30 days. After the March 2022 hike that opened that cycle, the drawdown reached 46.3% within 90 days. The counter-argument matters too. Futures markets are already pricing a 72.6% chance rates sit at least 50bps higher by December, so a chunk of this tightening path may already be priced in rather than sitting as a fresh shock. The open question isn't whether $BTC survives the announcement, it probably does. It's whether the pattern that's repeated in 17 of the last 20 hikes holds again, or this time is different because the market already knows what's coming. #Bitcoin Price Prediction: What is Bitcoins next move?# #FedRate