Will CPI Trigger a Rate Hike?
To be honest the latest inflation data makes the Fed’s job much harder.
August CPI increased 0.4% month-over-month, while annual inflation remained at 3.4%. More importantly, core CPI rose 0.3% in August, above the 0.2% economists had expected.
That is not the kind of inflation report the Fed wants to see when inflation is already sitting well above its 2% target.
Then there’s energy.
Oil has been trading above $100, and higher fuel costs can eventually move through transportation, services and consumer prices.
So my current bias is bearish in the short term.
Markets were already expecting a Fed move, and after CPI, futures pricing pushed the probability of a September hike sharply higher.
But here’s the interesting part
A rate hike itself may already be priced in.
The real market shock could come from what the Fed says after the hike.
If policymakers signal another hike later this year, risk assets could face more pressure.
If they say this is a one-and-done move, we could see the market breathe again.
My trade bias cautious on stocks and crypto, while keeping an eye on gold.
What’s your call Fed Hike or Hold? 👇
#CPIWatch #Bitcoin #crypto #GOLD #Fed
To be honest the latest inflation data makes the Fed’s job much harder.
August CPI increased 0.4% month-over-month, while annual inflation remained at 3.4%. More importantly, core CPI rose 0.3% in August, above the 0.2% economists had expected.
That is not the kind of inflation report the Fed wants to see when inflation is already sitting well above its 2% target.
Then there’s energy.
Oil has been trading above $100, and higher fuel costs can eventually move through transportation, services and consumer prices.
So my current bias is bearish in the short term.
Markets were already expecting a Fed move, and after CPI, futures pricing pushed the probability of a September hike sharply higher.
But here’s the interesting part
A rate hike itself may already be priced in.
The real market shock could come from what the Fed says after the hike.
If policymakers signal another hike later this year, risk assets could face more pressure.
If they say this is a one-and-done move, we could see the market breathe again.
My trade bias cautious on stocks and crypto, while keeping an eye on gold.
What’s your call Fed Hike or Hold? 👇
#CPIWatch #Bitcoin #crypto #GOLD #Fed
