đ¨ U.S. INFLATION: THE NEXT BIG MARKET TEST
The market is about to get another inflation reality checkâand this one could get ugly.
đ August CPI Forecast
⢠Headline: +0.4% MoM | +3.4% YoY
⢠Core: +0.2% MoM | +2.4% YoY
And there are already warning signs.
â˝ Gasoline averaged $4.192/gallon in August, while oil prices pushing above $100 are adding fresh pressure. Meanwhile, August PPI jumped 0.4% MoM and 5.4% YoY.
Markets are currently pricing around a 70% chance of a 25bps Fed hike at the September 15â16 meeting.
Now comes the real question: How hot will CPI be?
đĽ Hotter-than-expected CPI: Stocks, crypto and gold could come under pressure as Treasury yields and the dollar climb.
âď¸ Softer CPI: Risk assets could get a powerful relief rally as fears of tighter policy ease.
One inflation print.
One Fed decision.
Potentially a massive reaction across stocks, crypto, bonds, gold and the dollar.
August CPI isnât just another data point. It could be the marketâs next major trigger. đ$BTC
$BLUR
$MET
#btc
The market is about to get another inflation reality checkâand this one could get ugly.
đ August CPI Forecast
⢠Headline: +0.4% MoM | +3.4% YoY
⢠Core: +0.2% MoM | +2.4% YoY
And there are already warning signs.
â˝ Gasoline averaged $4.192/gallon in August, while oil prices pushing above $100 are adding fresh pressure. Meanwhile, August PPI jumped 0.4% MoM and 5.4% YoY.
Markets are currently pricing around a 70% chance of a 25bps Fed hike at the September 15â16 meeting.
Now comes the real question: How hot will CPI be?
đĽ Hotter-than-expected CPI: Stocks, crypto and gold could come under pressure as Treasury yields and the dollar climb.
âď¸ Softer CPI: Risk assets could get a powerful relief rally as fears of tighter policy ease.
One inflation print.
One Fed decision.
Potentially a massive reaction across stocks, crypto, bonds, gold and the dollar.
August CPI isnât just another data point. It could be the marketâs next major trigger. đ$BTC
$BLUR
$MET
#btc
