#CPIWatch 🚨 CPI JUST CHANGED THE FED BET
The August CPI report is out — and the inflation picture isn't giving the Fed much room to relax.
U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month in August and remained at 3.4% year-over-year. More importantly, core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and remains at 2.4% annually.
That matters because the Fed's September 15–16 meeting is now looking much more hawkish.
Christopher Waller previously said he could support holding rates if the incoming inflation data continued to show disinflation. But he also warned that if the improvement proved temporary, a rate hike could be appropriate.
Now the market is increasingly pricing in a 25bp hike.
For crypto, I'm watching this closely.
Higher rates can strengthen the dollar, push Treasury yields higher and reduce liquidity/risk appetite — all of which can create pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
My short-term view: bearish/cautious unless Bitcoin can absorb the macro pressure.
But the bigger question isn't simply “Will the Fed hike?”
It's: What has the market already priced in?
Because markets move on expectations — and the September 15–16 decision could still surprise them.
#CPIWatch #Bitcoin #crypto #Fed
The August CPI report is out — and the inflation picture isn't giving the Fed much room to relax.
U.S. CPI rose 0.4% month-over-month in August and remained at 3.4% year-over-year. More importantly, core CPI increased 0.3% for the month and remains at 2.4% annually.
That matters because the Fed's September 15–16 meeting is now looking much more hawkish.
Christopher Waller previously said he could support holding rates if the incoming inflation data continued to show disinflation. But he also warned that if the improvement proved temporary, a rate hike could be appropriate.
Now the market is increasingly pricing in a 25bp hike.
For crypto, I'm watching this closely.
Higher rates can strengthen the dollar, push Treasury yields higher and reduce liquidity/risk appetite — all of which can create pressure on Bitcoin and other risk assets.
My short-term view: bearish/cautious unless Bitcoin can absorb the macro pressure.
But the bigger question isn't simply “Will the Fed hike?”
It's: What has the market already priced in?
Because markets move on expectations — and the September 15–16 decision could still surprise them.
#CPIWatch #Bitcoin #crypto #Fed