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Bitcoin tests critical $76,000 support cluster during macro energy shock

Bitcoin fell below $77,000 on Sept. 10 as oil rose above $100, and a global bond selloff pushed traders toward another Fed hike.

$BTC reached an intraday low of $76,676.07, Nasdaq 100 futures fell 0.7%, and the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.93% while the 30-year touched 5.35%, its highest level in 19 years.

The moves followed another acceleration in US producer prices and a renewed surge in crude, pushing rate markets to price in about a 76% chance of a quarter-point Federal Reserve increase next week.

The complication is that the latest inflation reports capture little of oil's most recent advance, leaving traders to price an energy shock before it fully appears in official data.

Oil surge leaves inflation data chasing the market
Oil's latest leg higher came after much of the August inflation data had already been collected, increasing the risk that current readings understate the price pressure now building through energy markets.

West Texas Intermediate crude rose more than 4% to above $100 a barrel for the first time since May, while Brent climbed past $105 after escalating attacks on Middle East shipping routes renewed concerns about supply disruptions. Brent has risen more than 30% from its early-August lows.

US producer prices rose 0.4% in August and 5.4% from a year earlier, up from a 4.8% annual increase in July. Core PPI increased 0.2% from the previous month, below the 0.3% forecast, but the softer underlying reading did little to halt the selloff in bonds.

Joseph Brusuelas, RSM US LLP principal and chief economist, said the PPI sampling period ended Aug. 11, before the latest surge in crude, gasoline and diesel prices.

Brusuelas estimated current diesel prices were equivalent to crude trading near $207 a barrel and said higher energy costs could begin feeding through wholesale prices and core inflation during September.
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