Ripple faces a concrete quantum computing risk after an Anthropic model slashed the work needed to crack a leading post-quantum signature candidate by 67 million times last month, accelerating the push to harden the XRP Ledger before Q-Day arrives.
Key Takeaways
An Anthropic model reduced the work needed to crack a post-quantum signature candidate by 67 million times last month
XRP, Bitcoin and Ethereum all rely on elliptic curve cryptography to sign transactions
NIST opened a public contest in 2016 to find replacement algorithms, finalizing the first standards in 2024
Ripple has spent two years testing quantum-resistant signature options for the XRP Ledger
Anthropic’s Model Exposes A Quantum Computing Risk In Post-Quantum Code
An analysis published Friday traced the reduction to an Anthropic model probing a signature scheme under review in the National Institute of Standards and Technology‘s post-quantum program.
A 67 million-fold cut does not make today’s quantum machines capable of the attack, it is like discovering a job that took decades can now be done in a weekend, but it signals that networks relying on classical cryptography can no longer treat the threat as distant.
Why Q-Day Would Break XRP, Bitcoin And Ethereum Alike
Researchers call the moment quantum machines turn practical Q-Day. XRP, Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) all rely on elliptic curve cryptography, signing transactions using algebra on a curve rather than factoring.
A large enough quantum computer running Shor’s algorithm could reverse that math and forge a signature without holding the private key, rendering current wallet protections obsolete.
Post-quantum cryptography covers the signature and encryption schemes designed to resist exactly that capability.
From NIST’s 2016 Contest To Ripple’s Quantum-Ready Ledger
NIST opened a public contest in 2016 to find replacement algorithms, finalizing the first standards in 2024. Ripple has spent two years testing quantum-resistant signature options for the XRP Ledger, work that predates this finding but now carries fresh urgency.
Bitcoin and Ethereum developers have floated similar proposals for years without committing either network to a mandatory migration date.
The Migration Nobody Can Delay Too Long
Moving a live blockchain to new cryptography requires every wallet, exchange integration and validator to recognize the new signature format before old keys can be retired. Ripple has not set a public deadline for a mandatory switch, and neither has Bitcoin’s or Ethereum’s core developer community.