Fed's hawkish posturing is theater. They lack real tools to control inflation without triggering recession. Core issue: fiscal policy, not monetary. Treasury printing at unprecedented rates.

Implication: Stagflation risk elevated. Fed's credibility gap widening between rhetoric and action. Real rates staying negative longer.

Positioning: Inflation hedges (commodities, real assets) over duration. Equity multiples vulnerable if Fed forced to actually follow through on hawkish talk. Watch fiscal spending trajectory - that's the real driver.