📊 Macro Overview
— Weekly Market Brief
The macro week flipped the script: equities pulled back from records while crypto ripped higher, after the U.S. Treasury announced a dramatic expansion of its long-term bond buyback program on Aug 19, a liquidity injection that crushed long-end yields, weakened the dollar and detonated a $1.29B short squeeze in BTC.
• S&P 500 -1.4% | DXY ~99
Stocks cooled after the record run: the S&P 500 closed at 7,674.37 on Aug 21, down 1.4% for the week, the Dow slipped 0.8% to 53,277.01 and the Nasdaq fell 2.1% to 26,180.45 as hawkish minutes and AI-valuation worries took the air out of the August rally.
Flash PMIs were mixed-strong: Manufacturing 53.2, Services jumped to 56.8. Consumer Confidence slid to 51 from 55.2 and July retail sales fell -0.6% MoM, soft spots that underpin Goldman's view that a September hike is very low probability.
The bond market was the epicenter: on Aug 19 the Treasury announced it would at least double its long-term bond buyback operations to $4B each, and CNBC later reported it is weighing tapping its ~$950B Treasury General Account cash pile to expand the program further.
On regulation, the SEC on Aug 18 proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, its most significant step toward a bespoke offering regime for crypto. The Clarity Act stayed in limbo, Senate vote now expected in September. Jackson Hole is next week's macro event.
For $BTC, the macro mix turned decisively constructive, a weaker dollar, falling long-end yields and a fresh liquidity channel from the Treasury program, which Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick called exactly the type favored by Bitcoin, reiterating a $100K year-end target.
— Weekly Market Brief
The macro week flipped the script: equities pulled back from records while crypto ripped higher, after the U.S. Treasury announced a dramatic expansion of its long-term bond buyback program on Aug 19, a liquidity injection that crushed long-end yields, weakened the dollar and detonated a $1.29B short squeeze in BTC.
• S&P 500 -1.4% | DXY ~99
Stocks cooled after the record run: the S&P 500 closed at 7,674.37 on Aug 21, down 1.4% for the week, the Dow slipped 0.8% to 53,277.01 and the Nasdaq fell 2.1% to 26,180.45 as hawkish minutes and AI-valuation worries took the air out of the August rally.
Flash PMIs were mixed-strong: Manufacturing 53.2, Services jumped to 56.8. Consumer Confidence slid to 51 from 55.2 and July retail sales fell -0.6% MoM, soft spots that underpin Goldman's view that a September hike is very low probability.
The bond market was the epicenter: on Aug 19 the Treasury announced it would at least double its long-term bond buyback operations to $4B each, and CNBC later reported it is weighing tapping its ~$950B Treasury General Account cash pile to expand the program further.
On regulation, the SEC on Aug 18 proposed Regulation Crypto Assets, its most significant step toward a bespoke offering regime for crypto. The Clarity Act stayed in limbo, Senate vote now expected in September. Jackson Hole is next week's macro event.
For $BTC, the macro mix turned decisively constructive, a weaker dollar, falling long-end yields and a fresh liquidity channel from the Treasury program, which Standard Chartered's Geoff Kendrick called exactly the type favored by Bitcoin, reiterating a $100K year-end target.
