Bitcoin’s three-day surge has pushed a major market gauge bullish for the first time since October.
Bitcoin surged toward $80,000 on Friday, extending a three-day rally that has liquidated more than $4 billion in bearish bets and pushed the cryptocurrency to a three-month high.
The rally began Wednesday after the US Treasury said it would at least double liquidity-support buybacks for 10- to 30-year government debt, sending long-term yields lower and improving risk appetite.
Momentum accelerated as President Donald Trump hosted crypto executives at the White House and urged Congress to advance the CLARITY Act, while the SEC and CFTC moved ahead with additional industry-friendly proposals.
Institutional demand also strengthened. SoSoValue data shows spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds have attracted more than $1 billion since Wednesday, adding fresh buying as Bitcoin broke through resistance levels that had capped earlier recovery attempts.
Derivatives positioning then magnified the move. CoinGlass data shows more than $4 billion in Bitcoin shorts have been liquidated since Wednesday as the asset jumped from around $65,000 through $70,000 and then above $75,000.
According to him, ETF inflows and broader spot demand also supported the advance, helping Bitcoin reclaim its 20-week and 200-day moving averages and move above the estimated short-term holder cost basis near $68,700.
More than $4 billion in Bitcoin shorts have been liquidated since Wednesday, forcing bearish traders to buy back positions as prices rose. That added momentum to demand already coming from ETFs and other spot buyers.
The resulting shift in positioning is now creating a different risk. Søndergaard said momentum is stretched, funding has turned positive, and leveraged traders are increasingly crowded long.
While those conditions do not signal that the breakout is ending, they make continued spot demand more important as forced short covering becomes a smaller part of the move.
Lacie Zhang, research analyst at Bitget Wallet, told CryptoSlate that Bitcoin is beginning to trade with a US political premium as the Trump administration pushes to advance crypto legislation ahead of November's midterm elections.
Zhang said the timing could matter as much as the substance. The administration has an incentive to show progress on borrowing costs, financial markets and emerging industries before the midterms, while the crypto sector has reason to secure the CLARITY Act legislation before a change in the congressional balance makes further action harder.
That political premium could also become a vulnerability. Failure to advance the CLARITY Act, renewed disputes over the administration's crypto policies or a slowdown in regulatory momentum after the elections could quickly weaken part of the support now being priced into Bitcoin.
That leaves spot and ETF demand as the clearest test of what comes next. As the pool of vulnerable short positions shrinks, further gains will increasingly depend on investors continuing to buy Bitcoin at higher prices rather than on forced covering alone.