BTC is holding around $64.3K to $64.6K after another rejection near $65K. The multi week triangle is tightening, with support at $64K and the $63.7K to $63.9K SMA zone. Key resistance remains $65K to $65.4K.

Bitcoin’s 30 day apparent spot demand has recovered sharply from a deep contraction of roughly 206K BTC in late July and is either printing its first positive reading or sitting right on the cusp of one for the first time since February 26, 2026.

Historically, these zero crosses produced a median 18.1% gain over 60 days, with a 78% win rate. When MVRV is below its 365 day MA, as it is now, the median rises to 23.3% with an 87% win rate.

What’s different this time is that spot and perpetual futures demand appear to be recovering together, while whales holding 100+ BTC and 10K+ BTC have been accumulating. Exchange reserves also continue to decline.

The macro backdrop is the immediate catalyst. FOMC minutes are due today, alongside the White House crypto meeting with major industry and regulatory officials.

Confirmation for me is a sustained reclaim above $65K, backed by continued ETF inflows and an improving Coinbase premium.

Until then, BTC remains range bound, but the underlying demand setup is becoming increasingly constructive.

Written by theophiluspep