Bitcoin Still Outperforms, But Its Edge Is Getting Smaller
Bitcoin is still capable of crushing the S&P 500 during strong periods.
But the size of that advantage has been shrinking cycle by cycle.
Glassnode’s latest chart shows an interesting split:
• $BTC underperforms the S&P 500 on roughly 2 out of 3 trading days
• When Bitcoin does outperform, the excess return can still be much larger
• But those major bursts of outperformance have gradually weakened over time
The biggest spike shown on the chart reached around +377 percentage points of excess return versus the S&P 500.
Later bursts were much smaller:
+103pp → +76pp → and now around -30pp
Yet Bitcoin’s longer-term performance remains impressive. Across the period shown, $BTC gained around 414%, compared with roughly 130% for the S&P 500.
So the interesting question isn’t whether Bitcoin can still outperform.
It clearly can.
The bigger question is whether its outperformance will continue to come in the massive bursts we’ve seen in previous cycles.
As Bitcoin becomes more mature and increasingly integrated with traditional markets, its explosive edge over equities may naturally become harder to maintain.
That doesn’t make Bitcoin’s long-term case weaker by itself. It simply means the gap between $BTC and traditional assets may be changing.
And that is probably something worth watching as this cycle develops.
Bitcoin is still capable of crushing the S&P 500 during strong periods.
But the size of that advantage has been shrinking cycle by cycle.
Glassnode’s latest chart shows an interesting split:
• $BTC underperforms the S&P 500 on roughly 2 out of 3 trading days
• When Bitcoin does outperform, the excess return can still be much larger
• But those major bursts of outperformance have gradually weakened over time
The biggest spike shown on the chart reached around +377 percentage points of excess return versus the S&P 500.
Later bursts were much smaller:
+103pp → +76pp → and now around -30pp
Yet Bitcoin’s longer-term performance remains impressive. Across the period shown, $BTC gained around 414%, compared with roughly 130% for the S&P 500.
So the interesting question isn’t whether Bitcoin can still outperform.
It clearly can.
The bigger question is whether its outperformance will continue to come in the massive bursts we’ve seen in previous cycles.
As Bitcoin becomes more mature and increasingly integrated with traditional markets, its explosive edge over equities may naturally become harder to maintain.
That doesn’t make Bitcoin’s long-term case weaker by itself. It simply means the gap between $BTC and traditional assets may be changing.
And that is probably something worth watching as this cycle develops.