🚀The September hike is slipping away.🔥
CME FedWatch now prices just a 30.6% chance of a 25bp Fed hike next month — down from ~40% before the data dump. The Fed holding at 3.50–3.75% is now the base case at ~65%+.
The tape did the talking: CPI cooled to 3.4%, July PPI came in flat, retail sales missed (-0.6% MoM), UMich consumer confidence collapsed to 51, and jobless claims ticked up. Even mortgage rates snapped a 5-week rising streak.
Hawks aren't silent — Hamaker still says policy "isn't restrictive enough" — but the bond market is voting with its wallet.
Read-through for risk: a dovish September opens the door for BTC and gold to decouple and rip. History agrees — soft summers were🔥🔥🔥🔥 #ChinaJulyOutputRetailInvestmentAllMiss #CMESeptemberHikeOddsFallTo30.6% #IsraelStrikesLebanonKillsHezbollahCommander #CardanoSplitsDijkstraUpgradeIntoTwoPhases #SECCancelsCryptoRulemakingMeeting
CME FedWatch now prices just a 30.6% chance of a 25bp Fed hike next month — down from ~40% before the data dump. The Fed holding at 3.50–3.75% is now the base case at ~65%+.
The tape did the talking: CPI cooled to 3.4%, July PPI came in flat, retail sales missed (-0.6% MoM), UMich consumer confidence collapsed to 51, and jobless claims ticked up. Even mortgage rates snapped a 5-week rising streak.
Hawks aren't silent — Hamaker still says policy "isn't restrictive enough" — but the bond market is voting with its wallet.
Read-through for risk: a dovish September opens the door for BTC and gold to decouple and rip. History agrees — soft summers were🔥🔥🔥🔥 #ChinaJulyOutputRetailInvestmentAllMiss #CMESeptemberHikeOddsFallTo30.6% #IsraelStrikesLebanonKillsHezbollahCommander #CardanoSplitsDijkstraUpgradeIntoTwoPhases #SECCancelsCryptoRulemakingMeeting