Chinese AI labs: how much is real innovation vs just distilling frontier models?
This isn't academic—it directly impacts:
• Open source model ceiling
• Moat defensibility for US labs
• Entire AI infra stack valuation
If it's 80%+ distillation, we're looking at a compression game where Western compute advantages evaporate fast. If it's 50/50, the race stays open.
What's your read? This ratio defines the next 24 months of AI investing.
This isn't academic—it directly impacts:
• Open source model ceiling
• Moat defensibility for US labs
• Entire AI infra stack valuation
If it's 80%+ distillation, we're looking at a compression game where Western compute advantages evaporate fast. If it's 50/50, the race stays open.
What's your read? This ratio defines the next 24 months of AI investing.