Ethereum’s Binance-level NUPL has fallen to around −0.35, a zone historically associated with major ETH market bottoms, including 2019–20, 2022, 2025, and the latest drawdown.

This signals significant unrealized losses among ETH held on Binance, suggesting that weaker holders may already be capitulating. As loss-driven selling matures, downside pressure can weaken and create conditions for stabilization.

However, the signal is not yet confirmed. A recovery above −0.35 while ETH holds its recent low would strengthen the bottoming case. Further NUPL deterioration alongside new price lows would suggest capitulation is still incomplete.
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