TD Cowen Puts CLARITY Act’s Near-Term Passage Odds at Just 25%
TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group estimates there is only a 25% chance that the CLARITY Act becomes law in the next few months, as the landmark U.S. crypto market-structure bill faces mounting political and scheduling obstacles.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has postponed the first procedural vote until Sept. 15, after lawmakers return from the August recess. The delay leaves Congress with a narrow window to advance the bill before lawmakers leave Washington for October and shift their attention toward the November elections.
The CLARITY Act would establish a comprehensive federal framework for the crypto industry and significantly expand the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s authority over digital assets.
Key unresolved issues include stablecoin rewards, ethics rules covering public officials’ crypto interests, illicit-finance safeguards and differences between the House and Senate versions of the bill. Banks are also pushing lawmakers to tighten restrictions on stablecoin rewards.
TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg said the bill’s best opportunity for passage was before the summer recess, adding that while the legislation is “not dead,” its path has become considerably more difficult.
The White House and major crypto industry groups remain supportive, however, and still see September as a possible window for passage. Meanwhile, the SEC and CFTC are moving ahead with their own crypto rulemaking efforts, although industry representatives argue that agency rules cannot provide the same long-term legal certainty as legislation passed by Congress. $BTC
$ETH
TD Cowen’s Washington Research Group estimates there is only a 25% chance that the CLARITY Act becomes law in the next few months, as the landmark U.S. crypto market-structure bill faces mounting political and scheduling obstacles.
Senate Majority Leader John Thune has postponed the first procedural vote until Sept. 15, after lawmakers return from the August recess. The delay leaves Congress with a narrow window to advance the bill before lawmakers leave Washington for October and shift their attention toward the November elections.
The CLARITY Act would establish a comprehensive federal framework for the crypto industry and significantly expand the Commodity Futures Trading Commission’s authority over digital assets.
Key unresolved issues include stablecoin rewards, ethics rules covering public officials’ crypto interests, illicit-finance safeguards and differences between the House and Senate versions of the bill. Banks are also pushing lawmakers to tighten restrictions on stablecoin rewards.
TD Cowen analyst Jaret Seiberg said the bill’s best opportunity for passage was before the summer recess, adding that while the legislation is “not dead,” its path has become considerably more difficult.
The White House and major crypto industry groups remain supportive, however, and still see September as a possible window for passage. Meanwhile, the SEC and CFTC are moving ahead with their own crypto rulemaking efforts, although industry representatives argue that agency rules cannot provide the same long-term legal certainty as legislation passed by Congress. $BTC
$ETH