GDP miss + inflation surprise = stagflation vibes creeping back in 📉
Q2 GDP came in at +1.5% vs 2.1% expected — growth slowing harder than forecast. But here's the kicker: GDP Price Index jumped to 6.3% vs 4.1% expected. That's not just a miss, that's inflation running hotter while growth cools.
This is the exact combo the Fed doesn't want to see. Slower growth limits how aggressive they can be, but sticky inflation means they can't pivot dovish either. Market's caught in no man's land.
$SPY already pricing in the confusion. If this trend holds, we're looking at more chop, more volatility, and fewer easy trades. Watch how bonds and the dollar react — that's where the real story plays out next.
Q2 GDP came in at +1.5% vs 2.1% expected — growth slowing harder than forecast. But here's the kicker: GDP Price Index jumped to 6.3% vs 4.1% expected. That's not just a miss, that's inflation running hotter while growth cools.
This is the exact combo the Fed doesn't want to see. Slower growth limits how aggressive they can be, but sticky inflation means they can't pivot dovish either. Market's caught in no man's land.
$SPY already pricing in the confusion. If this trend holds, we're looking at more chop, more volatility, and fewer easy trades. Watch how bonds and the dollar react — that's where the real story plays out next.