Consumer spending held through summer—oil price drop provided temporary relief. Iran positioning for post-election leverage, betting current admin loses power in November. Zero incentive to de-escalate before then. Trump admin unlikely to commit ground forces, sticking to airstrikes. Historical precedent: airstrikes alone don't win wars. Risk: oil volatility returns post-election as Iran recalibrates strategy. Watch energy sector exposure and geopolitical premium pricing into Q4.