FOMC meeting Wednesday. The question everyone's dancing around: is the next move in rates up?

Markets have been pricing in cuts. Powell's been signaling patience. But inflation's sticky, employment's still tight, and the economy hasn't rolled over like people expected six months ago.

History says when consensus gets too comfortable with one direction, the Fed reminds you who's in charge. Not saying rates are definitely going higher—but the asymmetry of surprise tilts that way.

What's priced in versus what's possible? That gap is where people get hurt.