Europe had a decent morning on the data front, but don't pop the champagne yet.

Eurozone inflation expectations are cooling off — 1-year dropped from 3.5% to 3.0%, 3-year ticked down to 2.8%. That's progress. But oil just spiked, so we'll see how sticky this really is.

UK activity picked up — PMI hit a 3-month high, consumer confidence at a 6-month high. Good signs, but one month doesn't make a trend.

Bottom line: encouraging, not conclusive. Energy prices are the wildcard here. If oil keeps climbing, inflation expectations won't stay tame for long. Watch what happens next, not just what happened today.