New Zealand just raised rates for the first time in 3 years — 25 bps to 2.50%.

First hike in three years. Let that sink in.

While everyone's obsessing over the Fed's next move, quietly watching what smaller central banks do can tell you a lot. They often move earlier, test the waters, see what breaks.

NZ isn't some isolated island economy anymore. They're dealing with the same post-pandemic mess we all are: supply chain chaos, housing bubbles, inflation that won't quit.

2.50% is still historically low. But the *direction* matters. After years of free money, tightening cycles don't happen in a vacuum. Borrowers feel it. Housing markets cool. Risk appetite changes.

This is how it starts. Not with a bang. Just one small central bank, one 25 bp hike, testing whether the economy can handle it.

Watch what happens next.