$BTC NUPL just hit 0.158 — a metric that tracks unrealized profit/loss across the entire Bitcoin supply.
Here's the pattern: every major bottom (2011, 2015, 2018, 2022) only arrived after NUPL's exponential moving average dropped below zero. That's been the rule.
But here's where it gets interesting.
NUPL lows have risen each cycle. The bottoms are getting progressively shallower. So we're facing two possible paths:
1. This could be the first cycle to bottom without ever crossing zero — fitting the broader trend of less severe drawdowns each time.
2. Or the pattern holds, and we haven't seen the real bottom yet.
Meanwhile, supply held at a loss is running about two months behind levels that typically mark bear market ends. Two historically solid signals, both saying the same thing: we're not there yet.
So the question becomes: does breaking the zero-cross pattern confirm we're in a new regime of shallower cycles? Or does it mean the real bottom is still ahead and the old playbook still works?
Either way, the data isn't giving an all-clear signal yet.
Here's the pattern: every major bottom (2011, 2015, 2018, 2022) only arrived after NUPL's exponential moving average dropped below zero. That's been the rule.
But here's where it gets interesting.
NUPL lows have risen each cycle. The bottoms are getting progressively shallower. So we're facing two possible paths:
1. This could be the first cycle to bottom without ever crossing zero — fitting the broader trend of less severe drawdowns each time.
2. Or the pattern holds, and we haven't seen the real bottom yet.
Meanwhile, supply held at a loss is running about two months behind levels that typically mark bear market ends. Two historically solid signals, both saying the same thing: we're not there yet.
So the question becomes: does breaking the zero-cross pattern confirm we're in a new regime of shallower cycles? Or does it mean the real bottom is still ahead and the old playbook still works?
Either way, the data isn't giving an all-clear signal yet.