Bitcoin’s Risk Index has continued to rise from the low-risk zone and is now moving back toward the mid-risk regime, with the index above its 90-day average.

The metric is calculated as Delta Cap relative to Market Cap, normalized by a scaling factor. In simple terms, it shows the size of Delta Cap relative to Bitcoin’s overall market capitalization.

This matters because BTC is no longer in the same low-risk regime seen earlier in the cycle. The move above the 90-day average suggests that risk momentum is strengthening, rather than just a short-term spike.

Historically, major reset phases showed higher readings. The Risk Index reached around 4.20 near the January 2015 low, around 4.39 near the December 2018 low, and roughly 3.37–3.40 during the June and November 2022 stress phases.

One important nuance is that major Risk Index peaks have formed lower highs since 2018. Since the index is normalized by Market Cap, fixed historical thresholds should not be read mechanically as BTC’s market size changes.

Key takeaway:

The Risk Index has risen above its 90-day average, but remains below prior major reset levels.

Source: CryptoQuant

Written by Zizcrypto