📊 BTC/USDC Analysis (1D timeframe)

🔻 Trend Structure

•Market structure: Downtrend

➡️BTC is currently in a medium-term bearish correction after failing near 98k.

1️⃣Key observation:

•Lower highs and lower lows

•Price trading below MA(25) and MA(99)

•MA ribbons are sloping down

➡️This confirms bearish pressure is still dominant.

2️⃣Moving Averages

•MA(7): 68,173 (price slightly below)

•MA(25): 75,321 (well above price)

•MA(99): 86,802 (far above price)

🔹Interpretation:

•Short term: weak

•Mid term: bearish

•Long term: bearish

⚠️ BTC would need to reclaim ~75k to shift momentum.

3️⃣RSI (6): 37

•Below 50 → bearish momentum

•Not yet oversold (<30)

🔹This suggests:

•Sellers still in control

•But downside momentum is slowing

•Neutral-bearish zone.

4️⃣MACD

•DIF below DEA

•Histogram slightly positive but weak

➡️Momentum is trying to stabilize, but no strong bullish reversal yet.

5️⃣Stoch RSI: ~92

•This is interesting.

•Stoch RSI is overbought

•While price is weak

🔹This often signals:

•Possible short-term pullback or sideways chop

•Not a strong buy signal yet

6️⃣Volume & OBV

•OBV negative and declining

•Volume not showing strong accumulation

➡️Big money not aggressively buying yet.

7️⃣Sentiment Analysis

•Fear & Greed Index: 13 (Extreme Fear)

🔸This is important.

🔹Historically:

•Extreme fear = often near local bottoms

•But bottoms can take time to form

✅ Good for long-term accumulation

⚠️ Not automatically a short-term pump

8️⃣ETF Flows

•Latest shown: +$15.10M

•But chart shows many recent outflows

➡️Institutions have been net selling recently, which explains the downtrend.

9️⃣Key Levels

🟢 Support

• $59,900 (major support)

• $64k–65k zone (minor support)

🔴 Resistance

• $72k (first resistance)

• $75k (major MA resistance)

• $88k (macro resistance)

🔟Possible Scenarios

🐻 Bearish Case (still likely)

🔹If BTC fails to hold 65k:

•Retest 60k

•Possible wick into 58k–62k zone

➡️Probability: medium-high

🐂 Bullish Reversal Case

🔸For bulls to regain control:

🔹BTC must:

1. Hold above 65k

2. Break and hold 72k

3. Reclaim 75k MA

•Only then would trend shift.

➡️Probability right now: moderate but not confirmed

👨‍🏫Strategic Takeaway

•Short term: sideways to slightly bearish

•Mid term: corrective downtrend

•Long term: still bullish structure (macro)

✔ Market is in fear zone (good for investors)

❗ But no confirmed bottom yet

#Bitcoin #BTC