BTC is hovering near $67.6K, and sentiment has shifted decisively into Extreme Fear. Yet price hasn’t collapsed. That divergence matters. When fear spikes but structure holds, the market is usually in one of two phases:
1. Late stage distribution before a breakdown
2. Final leverage washout before reversal
The weekly close will decide which.
📉 The Bearish Case: Weekly Close Below $60K
For bitcoin to close under $60K, three things likely need to happen:
1. A decisive loss of the $64K–$65K demand zone
2. Rising sell side volume into the weekend
3. Derivatives funding flipping deeply negative with sustained open interest expansion
A break below $60K would confirm a weekly lower low and shift structure into medium term bearish continuation. That opens liquidity pockets in the mid-$50Ks, where prior consolidation occurred. But right now, that breakdown hasn’t happened.
📈 The Bullish Case: Weekly Reclaim Above $70K
The more interesting scenario is a push back above $70K before weekly settlement. Why?
1. $70K is both psychological resistance and a structural pivot
2. A weekly close above it invalidates the recent breakdown attempt
3. It would mark a reclaim of the prior range high
Technically, BTC is compressing between $64K support and $70K resistance. Compression in high fear environments often resolves violently. If bulls defend $65K and force a short squeeze into the close, $70K+ becomes realistic.
So Which Is More Likely?
A weekly close above $60K is highly probable given current structure.
2. A close above $70K is possible but requires momentum expansion.
3. A close below $60K would require fresh downside catalysts and sustained selling pressure (not currently evident).
