📉 Unrealized profits of whales are melting away with this correction.

In this first chart, we’re looking at the NUPL of big whales, meaning addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC.

💡 NUPL is a simple ratio used to assess latent losses and profits.

When it’s high, unrealized profits dominate.

When it’s low, losses dominate.

Today, the NUPL for this whale cohort has just dropped below 0.2, a level shown in yellow that historically has only been observed once the bear market is already well advanced.

This means that this cohort is now sitting on almost zero unrealized profits.

🔴 Historically, at bear market bottoms, these whales eventually ended up holding mostly unrealized losses, which is not yet the case today.

That’s something to be cautious about, because seeing these large players under pressure can trigger capitulation, potentially dragging BTC and the NUPL even lower.

We can already observe this over the past few days, especially among the youngest whales.

These whales are currently realizing losses, and on some days those losses have been very significant.

Some example :

– Feb 5: $750M in realized losses

– Feb 7: $900M

– Feb 3: almost $1B

👉 So we need to be wary of this whale capitulation phase, which represents a current source of selling pressure.