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ALISHBA SOZAR
Building knowledge in crypto & blockchain | Research-driven insights | Web3 • DeFi • Digital assets | X:TG @Alishbasozar
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FASTGJORT
Paper money was never supposed to be the money.
It was a receipt.
You deposited gold at a bank.
The bank gave you a note that said:
"The bearer of this note may redeem it for X amount of gold."
That's all a dollar was. A claim ticket.
The paper had no value.
The gold in the vault did.
The paper just made it easier to carry.
This system worked for centuries.
Every major currency was backed this way.
The British pound.
The French franc.
The U.S. dollar.
Then, slowly, governments realized something:
If people trust the paper,
they never come for the gold.
So they printed more notes than they had gold.
Then more.
Then more.
When too many people asked questions,
they closed the gold window.
That was supposed to be temporary.
55 years later, the dollar is still backed by nothing
but trust. And that trust has cost you 97% of your purchasing power.
The receipt became the money.
Global money became trust-based.
And money became nothing but a promise
that nobody has to keep.
#Alishba_Sozar
$USDC
It was a receipt.
You deposited gold at a bank.
The bank gave you a note that said:
"The bearer of this note may redeem it for X amount of gold."
That's all a dollar was. A claim ticket.
The paper had no value.
The gold in the vault did.
The paper just made it easier to carry.
This system worked for centuries.
Every major currency was backed this way.
The British pound.
The French franc.
The U.S. dollar.
Then, slowly, governments realized something:
If people trust the paper,
they never come for the gold.
So they printed more notes than they had gold.
Then more.
Then more.
When too many people asked questions,
they closed the gold window.
That was supposed to be temporary.
55 years later, the dollar is still backed by nothing
but trust. And that trust has cost you 97% of your purchasing power.
The receipt became the money.
Global money became trust-based.
And money became nothing but a promise
that nobody has to keep.
#Alishba_Sozar
$USDC
FASTGJORT
Someone just sent 2.565 $BTC to Satoshi Nakamoto’s Genesis address 🚨
Here’s what actually happened:
On February 7, 2026, at 00:04 UTC, an unusual transaction hit the most famous Bitcoin address ever:
1A1zP1eP5QGefi2DMPTfTL5SLmv7DivfNa
The Genesis address.
The exact amount sent was:
2.56536737 BTC
That’s around $181,000 at ~$70,600 per BTC.
This could be basically a tribute.
Or a burn.
- The Genesis wallet is special
This address has existed since January 3, 2009.
The first block.
The start of Bitcoin.
It has now received a total of: 107.10 BTC
Worth about $7.6 million.
And it has never sent anything out.
Over 56,000 transactions have been sent there.
- Who sent it?
That’s the mystery.
Someone just sent $181,000 straight into the Genesis void.
Here’s what actually happened:
On February 7, 2026, at 00:04 UTC, an unusual transaction hit the most famous Bitcoin address ever:
1A1zP1eP5QGefi2DMPTfTL5SLmv7DivfNa
The Genesis address.
The exact amount sent was:
2.56536737 BTC
That’s around $181,000 at ~$70,600 per BTC.
This could be basically a tribute.
Or a burn.
- The Genesis wallet is special
This address has existed since January 3, 2009.
The first block.
The start of Bitcoin.
It has now received a total of: 107.10 BTC
Worth about $7.6 million.
And it has never sent anything out.
Over 56,000 transactions have been sent there.
- Who sent it?
That’s the mystery.
Someone just sent $181,000 straight into the Genesis void.
A lesson about stabling.
This is some of my trenching money from the last 2 months.
I usually stable everything, always did. 140, 120, 80, I don't care. In my head, it saves me from having to trade macro SOL/USDC, which is a market that I'm not familiar with.
When you hold SOL, you're pretty much entering a second trade, one that's not under your control, in the same way a 3k market cap token is.
These 216k USD would be worth $140,000 in current SOL price. Sure, they could also be worth $500,000 in some months; but also could be worth $100,000.
Don't enter a second trade guys. You're memecoin traders, not macro analysts.
#Alishba_Sozar
$USDC
This is some of my trenching money from the last 2 months.
I usually stable everything, always did. 140, 120, 80, I don't care. In my head, it saves me from having to trade macro SOL/USDC, which is a market that I'm not familiar with.
When you hold SOL, you're pretty much entering a second trade, one that's not under your control, in the same way a 3k market cap token is.
These 216k USD would be worth $140,000 in current SOL price. Sure, they could also be worth $500,000 in some months; but also could be worth $100,000.
Don't enter a second trade guys. You're memecoin traders, not macro analysts.
#Alishba_Sozar
$USDC
🚨 CRYPTO IS DYING
I'm watching something fascinating happen in real time.
My timeline is full of "buy the dip" and "accumulation zone" posts.
Meanwhile, literally 90% of the traders I know personally sold everything between $100K-$120K, moved into stables, and haven't looked back.
They're not waiting. They're not planning their re-entry. They're just out.
And here's the kicker: they feel amazing about it.
That gap between what people are posting and what they're actually doing with their money?
That's your signal. Let me show you what's really happening.
ETF Flows:
Bitcoin ETFs have bled $6.18 billion since November. Three straight months of exits:
> November: -$3.5B
> December: -$1.1B
> January: -$1.6B
BlackRock's IBIT dumped $817M in a single day on January 29th.
The same institutional money everyone said would "never sell" is walking out the door.
This isn't retail panic. This is Wall Street leaving.
Where Are The Catalysts For Growth?
Name one. Seriously.
Halving? That was April 2024. Eighteen months ago.
ETF approval? Done.
Regulatory clarity? GENIUS Act passed July 2025.
The uncertainty everyone blamed for holding prices back? Gone.
So what's left?
Fed rate cuts help everything, not just crypto.
AI + crypto convergence? Still vaporware.
Tokenized T-bills? Institutional back-office stuff that has nothing to do with price.
There is nothing bullish on the horizon. ZERO.
The only trade left is hoping something appears.
2 Major Crypto Crashes:
October 10, 2025: $19 billion wiped in 24 hours. 1.6 million traders liquidated. BTC dropped from $122K to $104K in minutes. Order books evaporated. Spreads widened 1,321x.
February 5-6, 2026: Bitcoin hit $60,000. $2.67B liquidated. ETH crashed to $1,750. The Fear & Greed Index hit 5 (extreme fear, lowest reading since the index launched in June 2023).
Total market cap is down 46.6% from the October peak.
And the setup that caused October 10?
Still there.
Same thin liquidity. Same excessive leverage. Just waiting to detonate again.
Where Is Something New?
Last real breakthrough we had IMO was pumpfun.
Launched January 2024. TWO YEARS AGO.
Since then? Nothing.
Just old ideas with "AI-powered" slapped on top.
Pumpfun created over 16 million tokens.
Want to know how many weren't scams? 1%.
The other 99% were rugs, exit scams, vaporware.
That's the "innovation." A meme casino designed to extract money from latecomers.
DeFi TVL sitting at $105B, down from $120B.
Ethereum hitting "record transactions"? It's bots. MEV extractors. Airdrop farmers. Not real users.
Name the last major protocol launch that mattered. You can't. Because there isn't one.
Everyone I Know Already Rotated Out
Real builders. Multi-cycle survivors. Professional traders. They all made the same move: sold between $100K-$120K, moved to USDC, and they're just sitting there.
Not waiting to buy back. Not looking for entry points. Done.
Stablecoin market cap went up $100 billion in 2025 while crypto crashed.
That's not new money coming in. That's capital rotating out of risk and parking on the sidelines.
And those people sleeping great. No liquidation anxiety. No watching their net worth bleed 40% while some influencer tells them to HODL.
For REGULAR Users, There's Nothing To Do Right Now
If you're not actively trading or gambling, what's the point right now?
> DeFi yields are terrible
> NFTs are dead (again)
> Gaming projects are still vaporware
> The only activity is airdrop farming and leverage trading
That's it. No killer app. No reason for normal people to show up.
The market hasn't built anything useful in two years. Just repackaged narratives and empty promises.
So What's Is The Current State?
I'm not saying crypto is dead forever.
I'm saying right now, in February 2026, every fundamental is flashing red:
> Institutions selling
> Zero catalysts
> Innovation stagnant
> Smart money in stables
> Leverage waiting to blow
The believers will call this FUD. But everyone with a brain already exited months ago and they're fine.
If you're still long, ask yourself: what are you waiting for?
Hope isn't a strategy. And this market isn't rewarding patience. It's punishing it.
Track the flows. Watch what people do, not what they say.##
My timeline is full of "buy the dip" and "accumulation zone" posts.
Meanwhile, literally 90% of the traders I know personally sold everything between $100K-$120K, moved into stables, and haven't looked back.
They're not waiting. They're not planning their re-entry. They're just out.
And here's the kicker: they feel amazing about it.
That gap between what people are posting and what they're actually doing with their money?
That's your signal. Let me show you what's really happening.
ETF Flows:
Bitcoin ETFs have bled $6.18 billion since November. Three straight months of exits:
> November: -$3.5B
> December: -$1.1B
> January: -$1.6B
BlackRock's IBIT dumped $817M in a single day on January 29th.
The same institutional money everyone said would "never sell" is walking out the door.
This isn't retail panic. This is Wall Street leaving.
Where Are The Catalysts For Growth?
Name one. Seriously.
Halving? That was April 2024. Eighteen months ago.
ETF approval? Done.
Regulatory clarity? GENIUS Act passed July 2025.
The uncertainty everyone blamed for holding prices back? Gone.
So what's left?
Fed rate cuts help everything, not just crypto.
AI + crypto convergence? Still vaporware.
Tokenized T-bills? Institutional back-office stuff that has nothing to do with price.
There is nothing bullish on the horizon. ZERO.
The only trade left is hoping something appears.
2 Major Crypto Crashes:
October 10, 2025: $19 billion wiped in 24 hours. 1.6 million traders liquidated. BTC dropped from $122K to $104K in minutes. Order books evaporated. Spreads widened 1,321x.
February 5-6, 2026: Bitcoin hit $60,000. $2.67B liquidated. ETH crashed to $1,750. The Fear & Greed Index hit 5 (extreme fear, lowest reading since the index launched in June 2023).
Total market cap is down 46.6% from the October peak.
And the setup that caused October 10?
Still there.
Same thin liquidity. Same excessive leverage. Just waiting to detonate again.
Where Is Something New?
Last real breakthrough we had IMO was pumpfun.
Launched January 2024. TWO YEARS AGO.
Since then? Nothing.
Just old ideas with "AI-powered" slapped on top.
Pumpfun created over 16 million tokens.
Want to know how many weren't scams? 1%.
The other 99% were rugs, exit scams, vaporware.
That's the "innovation." A meme casino designed to extract money from latecomers.
DeFi TVL sitting at $105B, down from $120B.
Ethereum hitting "record transactions"? It's bots. MEV extractors. Airdrop farmers. Not real users.
Name the last major protocol launch that mattered. You can't. Because there isn't one.
Everyone I Know Already Rotated Out
Real builders. Multi-cycle survivors. Professional traders. They all made the same move: sold between $100K-$120K, moved to USDC, and they're just sitting there.
Not waiting to buy back. Not looking for entry points. Done.
Stablecoin market cap went up $100 billion in 2025 while crypto crashed.
That's not new money coming in. That's capital rotating out of risk and parking on the sidelines.
And those people sleeping great. No liquidation anxiety. No watching their net worth bleed 40% while some influencer tells them to HODL.
For REGULAR Users, There's Nothing To Do Right Now
If you're not actively trading or gambling, what's the point right now?
> DeFi yields are terrible
> NFTs are dead (again)
> Gaming projects are still vaporware
> The only activity is airdrop farming and leverage trading
That's it. No killer app. No reason for normal people to show up.
The market hasn't built anything useful in two years. Just repackaged narratives and empty promises.
So What's Is The Current State?
I'm not saying crypto is dead forever.
I'm saying right now, in February 2026, every fundamental is flashing red:
> Institutions selling
> Zero catalysts
> Innovation stagnant
> Smart money in stables
> Leverage waiting to blow
The believers will call this FUD. But everyone with a brain already exited months ago and they're fine.
If you're still long, ask yourself: what are you waiting for?
Hope isn't a strategy. And this market isn't rewarding patience. It's punishing it.
Track the flows. Watch what people do, not what they say.##
$0
family reactions to crypto earnings:
$0: “you’re wasting your time”
$50: “is this even worth it?”
$200: “it’s still not stable”
$1k: “you should get a job”
$3k: “how did you do that?”
$0 again: “we warned you”
$5k: “can you teach me?”
$500: “this seems risky”
$10k: “are you saving properly?”
$0 again: “crypto is dangerous”
$100k+: “you’ve always been smart”
#Alishba_Sozar
$SOL
$0: “you’re wasting your time”
$50: “is this even worth it?”
$200: “it’s still not stable”
$1k: “you should get a job”
$3k: “how did you do that?”
$0 again: “we warned you”
$5k: “can you teach me?”
$500: “this seems risky”
$10k: “are you saving properly?”
$0 again: “crypto is dangerous”
$100k+: “you’ve always been smart”
#Alishba_Sozar
$SOL
whatever you do, please make sure you:
1: do not fade ai
2: do not fade robotics
3: do not fade bitcoin
4: do not fade defi
5: do not fade commodities
the world is going to look completely different in 10 years time to the world we live in today.
you’re either aware of this and you’re preparing yourself + taking advantage of it.
or you have no idea and you’re going to get one-shotted because of that.
choice is yours init.
#Alishba_Sozar
$BTC $ETH $BNB
1: do not fade ai
2: do not fade robotics
3: do not fade bitcoin
4: do not fade defi
5: do not fade commodities
the world is going to look completely different in 10 years time to the world we live in today.
you’re either aware of this and you’re preparing yourself + taking advantage of it.
or you have no idea and you’re going to get one-shotted because of that.
choice is yours init.
#Alishba_Sozar
$BTC $ETH $BNB
If you’re broke, go get a job
Crypto is not going to save you if you’re totally broke
Staying broke & staying home staring at charts is not locking in
You need money to make money
That’s just the reality of things.
#Alishba_Sozar
Crypto is not going to save you if you’re totally broke
Staying broke & staying home staring at charts is not locking in
You need money to make money
That’s just the reality of things.
#Alishba_Sozar
Vitalik Buterin on CZ accusing Ethereum of crashing the market on 10/10:
" Blaming Ethereum’s gas fees for the $19B+ liquidation cascade on 10/10 is not just wrong it’s a deliberate deflection.
Gas spiked because your platform (and others) pumped insane leverage on high risk products like Ethena USDe, marketed as “safe 12% yield” collateral.
When macro hit (tariffs, whatever), the house of cards collapsed forced sells, cascading liquidations, opaque engines amplifying everything.
Ethereum congestion was a minor footnote. The real trigger? Over leveraged retail getting wrecked on centralized platforms that profit from the casino, then reimbursing $283M after the fact to look “SAFU” while pointing fingers elsewhere.
That’s not leadership. That’s damage control and scapegoating. "
#Alishba_Sozar
$BNB $ETH
" Blaming Ethereum’s gas fees for the $19B+ liquidation cascade on 10/10 is not just wrong it’s a deliberate deflection.
Gas spiked because your platform (and others) pumped insane leverage on high risk products like Ethena USDe, marketed as “safe 12% yield” collateral.
When macro hit (tariffs, whatever), the house of cards collapsed forced sells, cascading liquidations, opaque engines amplifying everything.
Ethereum congestion was a minor footnote. The real trigger? Over leveraged retail getting wrecked on centralized platforms that profit from the casino, then reimbursing $283M after the fact to look “SAFU” while pointing fingers elsewhere.
That’s not leadership. That’s damage control and scapegoating. "
#Alishba_Sozar
$BNB $ETH
95% of altcoins will never see ATH again.
Here’s a list of coins that are already dead or dying.
APT – pure VC exit liquidity
SEI – fake hype, zero adoption
TIA – insiders dumping every unlock
WLD – worst tokenomics of the cycle
BLUR – airdrop farmers paradise
PYTH – oracle narrative is dead
STRK – L2s don’t need tokens
DYM – modular hype already fading
JTO – no real revenue
MANTA – ghost chain
AEVO – ponzinomics casino
SAGA – infinite inflation
ZETA – zero organic demand
PORTAL – gaming vaporware
BEAM – recycled narrative
This cycle won’t forgive bad picks.
Only real money + real usage will survive.
#Alishba_Sozar
$USDC
Here’s a list of coins that are already dead or dying.
APT – pure VC exit liquidity
SEI – fake hype, zero adoption
TIA – insiders dumping every unlock
WLD – worst tokenomics of the cycle
BLUR – airdrop farmers paradise
PYTH – oracle narrative is dead
STRK – L2s don’t need tokens
DYM – modular hype already fading
JTO – no real revenue
MANTA – ghost chain
AEVO – ponzinomics casino
SAGA – infinite inflation
ZETA – zero organic demand
PORTAL – gaming vaporware
BEAM – recycled narrative
This cycle won’t forgive bad picks.
Only real money + real usage will survive.
#Alishba_Sozar
$USDC
There’s a version of me that never finds bitcoin.
She’s not struggling. She’s got the degree, the career, the 401k. By every measure she’s doing it “right.”
But she’s got this weight she can’t explain. She watches her parents work their entire lives and wonders why it never seems like enough. She sees the cost of everything go up and just accepts it because we’re taught inflation is “normal.”
She doesn’t know why, she just knows something feels off, and she never figures out what it is.
I figured out what it was.
And that’s why a red chart doesn’t shake me. When you understand what bitcoin actually is, not the price, but what it represents, you stop reacting to the noise.
#Alishba_Sozar
$BTC
She’s not struggling. She’s got the degree, the career, the 401k. By every measure she’s doing it “right.”
But she’s got this weight she can’t explain. She watches her parents work their entire lives and wonders why it never seems like enough. She sees the cost of everything go up and just accepts it because we’re taught inflation is “normal.”
She doesn’t know why, she just knows something feels off, and she never figures out what it is.
I figured out what it was.
And that’s why a red chart doesn’t shake me. When you understand what bitcoin actually is, not the price, but what it represents, you stop reacting to the noise.
#Alishba_Sozar
$BTC
🚀 Welcome to the Grand Crypto Seminar Live Now! 🚀
Get ready to experience the future of digital finance! We proudly welcome you to our Grand Seminar, focused on the launch and vision of an exciting new Crypto Coin designed to redefine opportunities in the crypto market. This power-packed session is created for smart investors, entrepreneurs, and forward-thinking individuals who want to stay ahead in the world of blockchain and cryptocurrency.
Get ready to experience the future of digital finance! We proudly welcome you to our Grand Seminar, focused on the launch and vision of an exciting new Crypto Coin designed to redefine opportunities in the crypto market. This power-packed session is created for smart investors, entrepreneurs, and forward-thinking individuals who want to stay ahead in the world of blockchain and cryptocurrency.
[Afsluttet] 🎙️ MOST WELL COME TO GRAND SEMINAR
اهلا بكم في الندوة الكبرى
2.5k lytninger
🎙️ welcome everyone🥰🥰
Slut
02 t 37 m 57 s
512
0
I sold everything I had. Every coin I owned is gone. I'm completely out of the cryptocurrency market, I can't take it anymore.
Aggressive dumping, manipulation, everything is so intense. crypto is over, I am out, I am very glad to meet you, life has dreams, each is wonderful.
Welcome to my new life..
#Alishba_Sozar
Aggressive dumping, manipulation, everything is so intense. crypto is over, I am out, I am very glad to meet you, life has dreams, each is wonderful.
Welcome to my new life..
#Alishba_Sozar
🎙️ 币安WLFI/USD1存款活动及WLFI官方平台存款/借出收益全部解析
Slut
05 t 59 m 45 s
32.8k
3
This is the silence before the BOOOOOOM.
Most people think retail will NEVER return.
But they don’t understand how this market works.
Once institutions finish loading…
once they start pushing Bitcoin hard…
once BTC does a +40% candle out of nowhere…
Retail will come back INSTANTLY.
They always chase hype.
They always chase green candles.
They always buy late.
We’re not waiting for retail.
We’re waiting for the big players to fill their bags.
And they’re doing it quietly right now.
When they finally hit the switch…
Bitcoin will explode…
Altcoins will start 10x… 20x… 50x…
The whole market will wake up in minutes.
This isn’t the end.
This is the calm before the chaos.
The market doesn’t slow down for comfort.
It rewards those who move early and think fast.
Comfort is the enemy of wealth.
You can sleep later.
This is the time to grind.
Opportunities like this won’t come again.
We are about to make stupid amounts of money.
$BTC
#Alishba_Sozar
Most people think retail will NEVER return.
But they don’t understand how this market works.
Once institutions finish loading…
once they start pushing Bitcoin hard…
once BTC does a +40% candle out of nowhere…
Retail will come back INSTANTLY.
They always chase hype.
They always chase green candles.
They always buy late.
We’re not waiting for retail.
We’re waiting for the big players to fill their bags.
And they’re doing it quietly right now.
When they finally hit the switch…
Bitcoin will explode…
Altcoins will start 10x… 20x… 50x…
The whole market will wake up in minutes.
This isn’t the end.
This is the calm before the chaos.
The market doesn’t slow down for comfort.
It rewards those who move early and think fast.
Comfort is the enemy of wealth.
You can sleep later.
This is the time to grind.
Opportunities like this won’t come again.
We are about to make stupid amounts of money.
$BTC
#Alishba_Sozar
This is a complete joke.
Creators who have carried Binance Square for months even years with 800k, 1M, 8.8M+ views are being ignored like they don’t exist. Meanwhile, accounts created 2–4 months ago are handed verified checkmarks despite having no trading knowledge, no credibility, and no value.
Most of these newly verified users post absolute garbage. No analysis. No education. No responsibility. They openly ignore Binance policies and do nothing except spam red packets to farm fake engagement and 20k–30k followers.
And Binance thinks THIS deserves verification?
Verification is supposed to mean trust and authority, not “who can game the system faster.” Handing badges to low effort, policy abusing accounts is not just unfair it’s damaging the platform’s reputation.
If experienced creators with real views and real impact are ignored while clowns get verified, then Binance Square has a serious credibility problem.
This system is broken. It’s embarrassing. And it needs to be fixed now.
#Alishba_Sozar
Creators who have carried Binance Square for months even years with 800k, 1M, 8.8M+ views are being ignored like they don’t exist. Meanwhile, accounts created 2–4 months ago are handed verified checkmarks despite having no trading knowledge, no credibility, and no value.
Most of these newly verified users post absolute garbage. No analysis. No education. No responsibility. They openly ignore Binance policies and do nothing except spam red packets to farm fake engagement and 20k–30k followers.
And Binance thinks THIS deserves verification?
Verification is supposed to mean trust and authority, not “who can game the system faster.” Handing badges to low effort, policy abusing accounts is not just unfair it’s damaging the platform’s reputation.
If experienced creators with real views and real impact are ignored while clowns get verified, then Binance Square has a serious credibility problem.
This system is broken. It’s embarrassing. And it needs to be fixed now.
#Alishba_Sozar
*VERY IMPORTANT*
A lot of people seem uneasy right now because Bitcoin has dropped below Strategy’s average entry price. That average sits around $76,000.
So I’m posting this while rubbing the sleep out of my eyes, hoping it can at least offer a bit of emotional support.
What follows is highly logical.
First of all, in moments like this, it’s worth thinking through the worst-case scenario.
Once you genuinely accept the worst case, nothing worse can really happen. That alone helps neutralize the market’s biggest enemy: Impatience and it keeps panic at bay.
So let’s look at a worstcase scenario that hasn’t actually happened yet. A chain reaction of treasury companies going bankrupt.
Up to now, these companies have been accumulating Bitcoin under pressure, issuing new shares, often at a discount, to raise capital.
Once the average purchase price drops by around 30%, insolvency risk starts to rise meaningfully. At that point, forced selling becomes unavoidable.
That said, if a small treasury company fails, the market impact is limited.
This is where Strategy matters as an indicator. It’s the world’s largest treasury company by far.
Its average Bitcoin purchase price is around $76,000, and it holds roughly 713,500 BTC.
A 30% drop from $76,000 puts us at about $53,000.
I don’t think it gets anywhere near that level.
Why? Because of a historical anomaly that has held throughout Bitcoin’s entire history, something I’ve mentioned many times. The high before a halving has never fallen below the low after the halving.
There was only one brief exception, and that exception turned out to be the absolute buying opportunity.
That “once-in-a-generation” opportunity is still fresh in everyone’s mind: the second half of 2022, around $10,000.
This cycle, that line sits at roughly $69,000.
Based on that historical pattern, it’s reasonable to assume that Strategy’s average purchase price will not be meaningfully breached.
Of course, if they keep buying, the average price changes, so the numbers always need to be monitored.
But at this stage, you can sketch out a scenario in which the world’s largest treasury company survives.
If that happens, the probability increases that the global accumulation culture remains deeply intact.
To be clear, this is framed purely as a worst-case scenario.
And as I often say. Once you’ve accepted the worst case, nothing worse tends to happen and the market’s greatest enemy, impatience, loses its power.
So I’m posting this while rubbing the sleep out of my eyes, hoping it can at least offer a bit of emotional support.
What follows is highly logical.
First of all, in moments like this, it’s worth thinking through the worst-case scenario.
Once you genuinely accept the worst case, nothing worse can really happen. That alone helps neutralize the market’s biggest enemy: Impatience and it keeps panic at bay.
So let’s look at a worstcase scenario that hasn’t actually happened yet. A chain reaction of treasury companies going bankrupt.
Up to now, these companies have been accumulating Bitcoin under pressure, issuing new shares, often at a discount, to raise capital.
Once the average purchase price drops by around 30%, insolvency risk starts to rise meaningfully. At that point, forced selling becomes unavoidable.
That said, if a small treasury company fails, the market impact is limited.
This is where Strategy matters as an indicator. It’s the world’s largest treasury company by far.
Its average Bitcoin purchase price is around $76,000, and it holds roughly 713,500 BTC.
A 30% drop from $76,000 puts us at about $53,000.
I don’t think it gets anywhere near that level.
Why? Because of a historical anomaly that has held throughout Bitcoin’s entire history, something I’ve mentioned many times. The high before a halving has never fallen below the low after the halving.
There was only one brief exception, and that exception turned out to be the absolute buying opportunity.
That “once-in-a-generation” opportunity is still fresh in everyone’s mind: the second half of 2022, around $10,000.
This cycle, that line sits at roughly $69,000.
Based on that historical pattern, it’s reasonable to assume that Strategy’s average purchase price will not be meaningfully breached.
Of course, if they keep buying, the average price changes, so the numbers always need to be monitored.
But at this stage, you can sketch out a scenario in which the world’s largest treasury company survives.
If that happens, the probability increases that the global accumulation culture remains deeply intact.
To be clear, this is framed purely as a worst-case scenario.
And as I often say. Once you’ve accepted the worst case, nothing worse tends to happen and the market’s greatest enemy, impatience, loses its power.
some CRAZY stats about what happened last friday in the silver market:
-price collapsed from $118.450 per ounce to a trough of $74.000 per ounce
- that's a decline of $44.45 per ounce or approximately 37.5%
-that's the largest drop in history, as both a percent and a notional amount
-around 368,561 futures contracts traded on the COMEX
-28,152 options traded as well
-given standard contract size of 5,000 oz, this means that roughly 1.98 BILLION OUNCES of paper silver traded that day
-for context, global mine production according to silver institute is 2.23 million ounces (calculated as 813,000,000 ounces ÷ 365 days).
-that means that COMEX traded 887.89 DAYS, or 2.43 YEARS, of GLOBAL SILVER PRODUCTION IN A SINGLE DAY
-price collapsed from $118.450 per ounce to a trough of $74.000 per ounce
- that's a decline of $44.45 per ounce or approximately 37.5%
-that's the largest drop in history, as both a percent and a notional amount
-around 368,561 futures contracts traded on the COMEX
-28,152 options traded as well
-given standard contract size of 5,000 oz, this means that roughly 1.98 BILLION OUNCES of paper silver traded that day
-for context, global mine production according to silver institute is 2.23 million ounces (calculated as 813,000,000 ounces ÷ 365 days).
-that means that COMEX traded 887.89 DAYS, or 2.43 YEARS, of GLOBAL SILVER PRODUCTION IN A SINGLE DAY
I lost $30k this month and I know thats not a lot compared to some of you but it was a lot to me. Like i didn’t cry about it or anything but i definitely sat in the car for 20 minutes staring at nothing
The worst part isnt even the money its the feeling of knowing you did it to yourself. Bad entry then “ill just hold a little longer,” every time i ignored my own rules
I’m not posting this for sympathy i just think more people should be honest about losing instead of only screenshotting the wins
Anyway im still here and I just bought the dip so theres that.
#Alishba_Sozar
The worst part isnt even the money its the feeling of knowing you did it to yourself. Bad entry then “ill just hold a little longer,” every time i ignored my own rules
I’m not posting this for sympathy i just think more people should be honest about losing instead of only screenshotting the wins
Anyway im still here and I just bought the dip so theres that.
#Alishba_Sozar
Log ind for at udforske mere indhold