杀破狼 WolfyXBT

Today's Wolf Wave Cycle Index = 0.222 (0 = bear bottom, 1 = bull top)

• Wolf Wave Cycle Index: https://wolfyxbt.github.io/wolfy-wave-index/

This bear market cycle will bottom at block height 971,250, which corresponds to approximately ≈ 2026/10/15. The date may be off by a few days depending on Bitcoin's block production speed.

The bull market for Bitcoin has ended, and we have now entered a bear market.

The peak of this bull market occurred on 2025/10/06, with the price of Bitcoin at 126,000. I also do not wish to speak negatively about my career, but according to the "four-year cycle theory," the price of Bitcoin has indeed peaked. I just want to convey this fact to more newcomers who have entered this cycle.

In my opinion, the "Bitcoin halving" has the greatest impact on the price of Bitcoin; it is much larger than any other event (macroeconomics, regulatory policies, geopolitical issues, wars, pandemics, etc.). The four-year cycle theory is a cyclical theory that revolves around Bitcoin halving, and it is currently the most reliable cyclical theory in the cryptocurrency space, without exception.

The core of the four-year cycle theory is: "Bitcoin halving" dominates the rhythm of Bitcoin's bull and bear transitions, dividing the fluctuations of a Bitcoin bull and bear cycle into 4 parts, which are:

Bull Beginning >> Halving >> Bull End >> Bear Market

Before the "halving," there will be a "Bull Beginning,"
After the "halving," there will be a "Bull End,"
The "halving day" will be interspersed in the "middle region" of the entire bull market,
The duration of the "Bull Beginning" and "Bull End" is basically similar,

After the "Bull End," there will be a bear market lasting 1 year, and then we will wait for the next "halving day" to drive the next "Bull Beginning" market, and so on, ad infinitum.

From the diagram below, we can see that the "Bull End" of this round has already concluded, and we have officially entered the "Bear Market" zone. Even if the date I mentioned may not be absolutely accurate, there is no need for us to continue betting in this zone.

China's cultural export to overseas audiences over the past year: Black Myth: Wukong, Labubu, Lan Lao, and Niu Lai.

There are way too many people shorting. I’ve been singing bearish for half a year—when it rallied to 70,000 I quit early and surrendered. Now that it dips a bit, there are all these people shorting again. If Bitcoin can’t drop, it’s your fault—just rally back up and go bull early!

They’re not really telling you to go all-in—it's telling you to go all-in gradually. It’s not going all-in all at once. When you go all-in, you need to find a good timing, then go all-in slowly. After you’ve gone in and gotten your profit, you should exit. Wait for the next opportunity, then go all-in again.

I just found out I’ve hit exactly 860,000 followers—can you all congratulate me, please? Thank you.

The sudden breakout of “Bull Niu” has made the market start to take IP seriously again. IPX recently officially licensed Minini, a top-tier meme sticker IP, to Minicoin, a Web3 project, @mini_cto.

IPX is the parent company behind @_LINEFRIENDS. Everyone should know LINE—it's like WeChat for Japan and South Korea. LINE has long done a pretty good job with its sticker culture. The Minini sticker character licensed to Minicoin this time is one of their original sticker IP characters that everyone has probably seen to some extent.

Minicoin is an “IP on-chain” project within the Creditcoin @Creditcoin ecosystem. What they’ve been doing recently is quite interesting, so you may want to keep an eye on it.

Creditcoin itself is a Layer1 blockchain focused on RWA.

And what Minicoin is doing with this “IP on-chain” effort is, at its core, also building RWA. IP originally belongs to the “off-chain asset” world. Through legal agreements, ownership of the IP is proven—who the true holder is. Minicoin now wants to bring this off-chain IP rights verification process onto the blockchain as well.

Artists/creators can now go to the Minicoin platform, package their IP works into NFTs (the supported formats currently include: sticker packs, music, and virtual characters). Then the Minicoin platform helps artists/creators apply for an IP legal agreement off-chain for the IP works they uploaded.

Ultimately, it realizes the concept: “Whoever holds this NFT owns the IP.” This ownership doesn’t only take effect on-chain—it also has legal effect off-chain, enabling real IP rights verification.

I think Minicoin’s approach does indeed address an NFT-related shortcoming when it comes to IP rights verification.

In Web3, if you hold an NFT, people do treat you as the IP owner of that NFT. But off-chain, that claim is hard to substantiate. Off-chain, there’s your own IP rights verification method—legal agreements. Minicoin’s approach perfectly fills that gap.

The market can also pay for licenses to use IP on the Minicoin platform. Minicoin’s agreement automatically converts these proceeds into $MINI and routes them to the NFT holders. The entire process is implemented purely via smart contracts, and the project team itself can’t touch this money.

And this system also supports redemption: NFT holders can burn the NFT and redeem the complete IP ownership legal agreement with the Minicoin platform off-chain.

Overall, I think what Minicoin is doing is pretty interesting. For digital artists/creators, it may become a better option for asset issuance in the future.

This market is really terrible, brothers—protect your principal.

If Bitcoin sets a new low within the next 3 months, the Wolf Wave Index still holds true.

If a bull run resumes from here, with 58,000 as the bottom of this bear market, then the Wolf Wave Index will be completely invalidated.

• Wolf Wave Index：https://wolfyxbt.github.io/wolfy-wave-index/

It’s over—I’ve completely failed.

Incredible, the AI Agent prediction platform @NeoSoulAI that was getting a lot of World Cup buzz earlier has just officially announced that it raised $11 million. The participating VCs include Amber Group, MH Ventures, ArkStream Capital, 0G Foundation, and more.

NeoSoul has been collaborating closely with the public chains @0G_labs and @BNBCHAIN. Coincidentally, these two chains have also been pushing into the direction of AI agents recently, which aligns well with @NeoSoulAI’s current focus. During the World Cup, NeoSoul also co-hosted events with them.

Their new product is called NeoTrade. It’s kind of like a prediction-themed Little Lobster Agent: you can download and set up the Agent on your computer, set the permission scope for the Agent, and then it will run on your computer 24 hours a day. Pretty interesting—if you’re interested, you can go try it out.

When you feel anxious, put down your phone, walk to the nearby convenience store to buy a bottle of cola, stand by the roadside and drink it. Watch the red light turn green, then turn back to red. See how the delivery rider rushes to deliver an order and runs the red light. Notice how the old man by the roadside picks up plastic bottles that can be sold for two yuan per kilogram next to the trash can—then look at yourself too.

We don’t need lots and lots of money to live. As long as we have enough for three meals, warm clothes to wear, a place to live, wake up each day with hope, and be able to do the things we love—then that’s enough.

I completely failed

On this Qixi Festival, people who are able to like my post at this time are kind of pitiful.

Next life, I’m not trading crypto anymore—I'll save some time to go for evening walks with you. But not this life; I haven’t recovered my losses yet.

Yushuke Technology is terrifying!

In the group chat, an IPO lottery winner earned a net profit of 470,000 RMB. Chinese robots can fly.

I always thought 肏 was just a pictographic character. Just now I found out it actually is pronounced cào, and its meaning is also indeed cào

I once explored a new world nine times

Send a private message to someone you don’t know and you send just one line: “Are you there?”

Personally, I think that’s quite disrespectful—if not outright rude. If you’re going to message someone you don’t know, it’s best to lay out your purpose clearly in one go, along with the main point you want to express.

Say less and write less. If the other person usually uses English, translate it into English and send it over—do your best to reduce the time and effort cost for them to read your message.

If you send just “Are you there?”, then do you expect them to reply with something like “Yes, what is it?” and then you’re done, while they still have to wait for your response?