Blue-chip NFTs are undergoing an eerie resurgence. The floor price of the Bored Ape Yacht Club has rebounded more than 40% from its early-year low, and CryptoPunks’ trading volume has also hit a quarterly high over the past two weeks. But does this mean the NFT market has already bottomed out—or is it just a short-term tug-of-war among existing capital?
Judging by fund flows, the main driver of this rally isn’t new money entering the market. On-chain data shows that whale wallets are increasing their concentration of NFT holdings, while smaller and mid-sized traders are still exiting. This suggests the so-called recovery is more about whales accumulating at low prices than a genuine turnaround in demand. At the same time, Ethereum gas fees have not risen significantly, indicating that NFT trading hasn’t triggered broad-based market sentiment synchronization.
The deeper issue is that the NFT market’s structural problems remain unresolved: liquidity is drying up, royalty disputes persist, and users are growing tired of the purely PFP-style aesthetic. Even though blue-chip projects have seen price rebounds, trading volume is still far below the 2022 peak. This looks less like a trend reversal and more like existing capital performing self-rescue in a low-liquidity environment.
My view is that the current NFT market is in the bottom zone, but a true cycle reversal requires two conditions: first, the emergence of application scenarios that can attract mainstream users, rather than tools for mere speculation; second, an improvement in the macroeconomic environment so that risk assets regain liquidity. Until then, rallies in blue-chip NFTs are better treated as opportunities for swing trading—not signals for long-term holding.
What do you think? Is it time to bottom-fish blue chips, or should we keep watching from the sidelines? Feel free to discuss.
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