Muhammad talha Hasha

Ceny zlata dnes kolísaly s mírným oslabením, protože globální trh vstoupil do fáze konsolidace po nedávných silných ziskách. Nálada investořů zůstala opatrná, při ziskových výběrech byla omezena růstová dynamika v hlavních obchodních sezeních.
Zlatý trh byl především ovlivněn pohyby amerického dolaru, výnosy dluhopisů a makroekonomickými očekáváními. Zatímco krátkodobí obchodníci ustoupili, dlouhodobá pozice zůstala zachována, což drželo ceny blízko vyšších úrovní.
📊 Přehled trhu
Asie: Zlato otevřelo s opatrným obchodováním, protože kupující vyhýbali cenám blízko svým vrcholům.

Ceny zlata zůstaly dnes silné, protože investoři i nadále hledali bezpečí ve světové nejistotě a ekonomické opatrnosti na začátku roku 2026. Drahocenný kov si udržuje svůj vzestupný trend po historickém nájezdu minulého roku, podpořený geopolitickými napětími, očekáváním nižších úrokových sazeb a slabším americkým dolaru.
Účastníci trhu pozorně sledují politiku centrálních bank, protože rostoucí očekávání uvolnění měnové politiky zvýšily přitažlivost zlata jako aktiva bez výnosu. Zároveň trvající geopolitické rizika posilují roli zlata jako ochrany proti nestabilitě, což udržuje poptávku odolnou na mezinárodních trzích.

Gold prices moved higher during early Asian trading as an unexpected escalation in geopolitical risk triggered renewed demand for safe-haven assets. The move followed reports of a sudden U.S. military operation in Venezuela, which removed President Nicolás Maduro and introduced fresh uncertainty into an already fragile global environment.
Spot gold climbed around 1.8% to near $4,410 per ounce, reflecting a rapid repricing of near-term tail risks. Market participants appeared to shift positioning toward capital-preservation assets, prioritizing geopolitical uncertainty over traditional macroeconomic or monetary policy drivers.
Investor focus has turned to the broader implications of renewed U.S. interventionism in Latin America. Concerns are centered on potential spillover risks, regional instability, and diplomatic friction, factors that historically support demand for defensive assets such as gold during periods of political shock.
Analysts noted that the price reaction was driven less by changes in interest-rate expectations and more by uncertainty surrounding regional power dynamics and the precedent set by unilateral action. According to Capital Economics, markets may be pricing not just a single event, but the possibility of a prolonged phase of heightened geopolitical sensitivity across the region.
Looking ahead, gold is expected to remain supported as long as geopolitical uncertainty persists and policy signals remain unclear. However, a rapid de-escalation or the emergence of a clear diplomatic framework could reduce the current risk premium, potentially leading to short-term consolidation after the sharp move higher.
The next key catalyst for gold will depend on whether geopolitical tensions broaden beyond Venezuela or fade quickly, determining whether the current safe-haven bid proves durable or temporary.

Ceny zlata vzrostly na začátku roku 2026, když dolar oslabil a naděje na snížení sazeb rostly
Evropské trhy zažily silný skok cen zlata v pátek, což bylo první obchodní sezení roku 2026, když slabší americký dolar a očekávání dalších snížení úrokových sazeb oživily poptávku investorů po cenných kovech.
Cena zlata vzrostla o 1,8 % na 4 387,09 $ za unci, zatímco americké zlaté futures vzrostly o 1,4 % na 4 399,90 $, když se trhy znovu otevřely po prázdninovém období na konci roku.
Zlato se na chvíli vzdálilo od rekordních výšin v posledních dnech roku 2025, ale na začátku nového roku se objevilo nové kupování, podporováno obnoveným optimismem ohledně uvolnění měnové politiky.

Futures na zlato vstupují do přechodu cyklu po vyčerpání vysokého bodu
Futures na zlato ukazují na jasný přechod cyklu, následující vyčerpávající vzor VC PMI podle učebnice. Nedávný růst dosáhl vrcholu poblíž 4584, což byla úroveň, která označila vrchol cyklu, kde začal slábnout vzestupný momentum navzdory vyšším cenám.
Tato výška se přesně shodovala se symetrií odporu VC PMI a harmonickým časováním Čtverce 9, což signalizovalo rostoucí riziko poklesu. Z pohledu cyklu cena dokončila horní rotační oblouk, fázi typicky spojenou s únavou trendu a oslabením síly kupujících.

In 2025, prediction markets stopped acting like a sideshow and started behaving like a real financial category.

Prediction Markets Go Mainstream
What began as a niche experiment in forecasting elections and sports quietly evolved into a multibillion-dollar ecosystem touching Wall Street, media giants, professional sports, and crypto infrastructure.

From regulatory victories and courtroom battles to record volumes, blockbuster fundraises, and mainstream media integrations, prediction markets spent 2025 elbowing their way into the center of the conversation—and mostly winning the fight.

A Strong Start, With Lawyers in the Background
The year opened with momentum already in motion. Polymarket entered January averaging more than $1 billion in monthly trading volume, riding engagement that never faded after the 2024 election cycle. Kalshi, meanwhile, leaned harder into sports and economic markets while preparing for legal tests that would define its future.

Those tests arrived quickly. In January, Kalshi found itself back in court challenging federal restrictions on political event contracts, while state regulators sharpened their knives. The legal uncertainty did little to slow participation, but it ensured that prediction markets would spend much of 2025 proving they belonged.

Regulation Tightens—Then Starts to Blink
By February, regulators were paying closer attention. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission scheduled public discussions around event contracts, signaling that prediction markets were no longer flying under the radar. State-level scrutiny intensified, setting the stage for clashes that would unfold over the spring.

March delivered both innovation and confrontation. Blockchain-native protocol Myriad launched with an onchain, non-custodial model using stablecoins, reinforcing prediction markets’ growing overlap with crypto rails. At the same time, New Jersey regulators issued a cease-and-desist order against Kalshi, accusing it of operating unlawful gambling markets.

Kalshi responded the way it would all year: by suing back.

Prediction Markets Had Their Breakout Year in 2025 — and There Was No Going Back

Courtrooms, Clarity, and a Federal Green Light
April marked a turning point. A federal judge blocked New Jersey’s enforcement action, siding—at least temporarily—with Kalshi’s argument that federal commodities law preempts state gambling statutes. Days later, the CFTC dropped its appeal in Kalshi’s election-contract case, effectively leaving a pro-market ruling intact.

The message was unmistakable: prediction markets had found firmer footing at the federal level, even if states continued to resist. Trading activity reflected that shift almost immediately, with Kalshi posting hundreds of millions in volume tied to fast-resolving sports events.

Growth Accelerates as Legal Fog Lifts
By May, participation accelerated. Kalshi reported weekly volumes approaching $1 billion, a staggering jump from the prior year. Sports accounted for most activity, but economics, crypto, and political markets quietly gained traction beneath the headline numbers.

Industry-wide, the tone changed. Venture capital interest deepened, institutional observers began framing prediction markets as information tools rather than novelty bets, and whispers of partnerships with mainstream platforms grew louder.

Deals, Integrations, and Wall Street Curiosity
June brought confirmation. Polymarket revealed it had acquired a small CFTC-licensed exchange to facilitate a U.S. return, a strategic move that signaled long-term intent rather than regulatory brinkmanship. Kalshi, meanwhile, inked a distribution partnership with Robinhood, pushing prediction markets directly into a retail trading app used by millions.

The subtext was clear: prediction markets were no longer content living at the edges of the internet.

Summer Funding and the Push Toward the U.S.
Throughout the summer, capital flowed in. Polymarket raised additional funding while preparing for its U.S. relaunch, attracting backers spanning crypto-native funds and traditional venture firms. Kalshi ramped marketing and expanded categories, even turning live odds into subway ads—a subtle flex that would have seemed absurd a few years earlier.

Behind the scenes, lawmakers debated whether these markets could serve public forecasting functions. No laws changed, but the conversation itself marked progress.

The U.S. Door Reopens
September delivered one of the year’s defining moments: Polymarket regained approval to operate in the United States. The timing aligned neatly with major sports seasons and renewed political speculation, pushing combined weekly volume across leading platforms past $2 billion.

State battles continued, but user growth did not wait for unanimous permission.

October’s Capital Floodgates Open
October was the month when prediction markets went unmistakably big. Intercontinental Exchange (ICE), owner of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), announced plans to invest up to $2 billion in Polymarket, valuing the company in rarefied territory and cementing Wall Street’s interest in event-driven data.

Kalshi followed with a massive funding round of its own, pushing its valuation into fintech’s upper tier. At the same time, Google began integrating prediction market data into search and finance tools, ensuring millions would encounter probabilistic forecasts whether they asked for them or not.

November Sets Records Across the Board
November shattered expectations. Combined platform volumes reached historic highs, with industry-wide trading estimated at roughly $44 billion for the year. Kalshi and Polymarket each cleared multibillion-dollar monthly totals, while new competitors crossed billion-dollar weekly thresholds.

Major media outlets followed suit. Yahoo Finance integrated prediction market data directly into its pages, while CNN prepared on-air odds segments. Sports partnerships expanded, including high-profile deals with the NHL and UFC, pushing prediction markets into live broadcasts.

Prediction Markets Had Their Breakout Year in 2025 — and There Was No Going Back

December Brings Expansion—and Competition
By December, prediction markets were no longer alone. Draftkings launched a federally compliant prediction app in dozens of states, validating the regulatory path pioneered earlier in the year. A newly launched competitor, Myriad, integrated directly into a major crypto wallet, bringing event trading into a native Web3 environment.

The year closed with optimism, but not without tension. State-level resistance persisted, and lawsuits lingered. Still, participation broadened beyond sports, with economics, tech, and politics showing the fastest growth rates.

A New Asset Class Finds Its Place$BTC
By year’s end, prediction markets looked less like a curiosity and more like an emerging asset class. They blended regulated exchanges, blockchain settlement, real-time data, and crowd-based forecasting into something difficult to ignore—and increasingly difficult to stop.

If 2025 proved anything, it’s that prediction markets are done asking whether they belong. The only remaining question is how far they push next.$BTC

“Bitcoin will one day overtake gold.” — President Trump
What once sounded impossible is now unfolding.
Digital scarcity vs. physical metal.$BTC
History is being written.
$BTC #GOLD

$BNB just proved it once again.

Price spent time cooling off and building a solid base. No panic, no forced moves. And the moment buyers stepped back in, the recovery started — clean, controlled, and healthy.

That bounce from the lower zone clearly shows strong buyer interest. Those who stayed calm instead of reacting emotionally are already seeing the reward.

The chart still looks strong: • Higher lows are forming
• Momentum is gradually rebuilding
• Buyers remain active after a healthy pullback

As long as $BNB holds above its key support zone, the upside remains open.

Trade View – Bullish structure intact
– Buyers in control
– Further upside likely if momentum continues

Sometimes the market needs time.
But when the move comes — it pays big.

Stay patient. Stay disciplined$BNB
Let the chart do the work. 📈

Obchodníci s bitcoinem jsou ve střehu před čtvrtečním zveřejněním CPI v USA, protože trhy přehodnocují očekávání ohledně úrokových sazeb po komentářích guvernéra Fedu Stephena Mirana.$BTC
Miran tvrdil, že inflace je blíže cíli Fedu 2% než naznačují hlavní údaje a že většina zbývajícího tlaku pochází ze statistických zkreslení, nikoli z reálné poptávky. Podle nástroje CME FedWatch nyní trhy oceňují 75,6% pravděpodobnost, že na zasedání Fedu v lednu 2026 nedojde ke změně úrokové sazby, což posiluje měkčí dlouhodobý výhled úrokových sazeb.$BTC

Ethereum je zaseknuté! 😩 Vidíme teď vážnou volatilitu, uvězněni mezi $3,051 a $3,272, a není žádný jasný směr.$ETH

Dobré zprávy? Býci drží linii na $3,000. Pokud se nám podaří prorazit a zůstat nad $3,200, sleduji rally směrem k $3,400 (zejména pokud se instituce zapojí).$ETH

Špatné zprávy? Pokles pod tuto hranici $3,000 by mohl poslat ETH zpět k $2,800. Tato nejistota ze strany Fedu/makroekonomiky spolu s nízkou likviditou určitě podporuje riziko poklesu. Buďte opatrní venku!

​$STG successfully broke out to 0.1395 and has since settled near the 0.131 level.

​The current pullback remains shallow relative to the initial breakout leg.
​Key Insight: As long as the price respects the 0.128 area, this appears to be a phase of consolidation, rather than a sign of underlying weakness.$STG