SignalPlus

Rizikový sentiment se v pátek otočil o 180 stupňů, když se makro aktiva prodávala napříč trhem, přičemž hlavním faktorem byla významná slabost technologických akcií s medvědím zpevněním křivky výnosů. Obavy o výsledky Oracle a Broadcom stahovaly celkový rizikový komplex dolů, zatímco výběr zisků na konci roku a rotace sektorů stahovaly Nasdaq dolů o -2 % během dne v jednom okamžiku.

Kromě toho se Nejvyšší soud chystá rozhodnout o pravomoci prezidenta Trumpa v oblasti cel již tento týden, a negativní rozhodnutí by znamenalo, že by americká vláda mohla dlužit ~200 miliard USD na vrácených platbách dovozcům během příštího roku. To by muselo být financováno z dalšího vydání dluhopisů, spolu se značným dopadem na budoucí vládní rozpočet, protože cla byla určena jako hlavní zdroj příjmů. V důsledku toho 10letý výnos testoval a vypadá, že se chystá prolomit více než měsíční strop na ~4,20 %, přičemž křivka výnosů 2/10 se také strmě zvyšovala o ~15 bazických bodů pouze za poslední 2 týdny.

While risk sentiment steadied last week, G7 fixed income had a rough go as a number of Tier-1, non-US economic indicators surprised to the upside. Australia CPI came in at 3.8% vs 3.6% expected, triggering a 15bp gap up in their 5yr yield and AUDUSD +2.5% higher on the month. Canada’s job report was up next with an extremely strong upside beat (unemployment at 6.5% vs 7.0% expected), which triggered the sharpest daily move in the Canadian 5yr bond since 2022 (+20bp), and the CAD soaring by 2%. Over in Japan, despite weak capex spending, the market is pricing in a 90% chance of a BOJ hike this month, making the dovish Fed the odd one out of the G7.

The market widely expects a 25bp in the FOMC this week, with an addition 2 more priced in for all of 2026. Despite stubborn inflation, the Fed has hinted that they will lean on the softness in the unemployment rate (~4.5%) to justify the final cut of the year. Furthermore, with 2 more jobs reports between the Dec and Jan FOMC, we expect Chairman Powell to keep his options open for another rate cut in January or March, with the 2026 ‘dot plot’ similar to before.

Unsurprisingly, the Fed dovishness is starting to meet some market resistance, with market participants starting to price in the chance of a ‘hawkish cut’ through Powell’s Q&A guidance or a change in SEP forecasts. In order to make that happen, the Fed would need to be rather explicit in his forward guidance, such as by shifting the 2026 rate cuts expectations to 1 or less, which we think has a low probability of happening.
On the other hand, with President Trump strongly hinting at Kevin Hasset being the next chair, that’s likely going to be the market’s modal outcome, which implies a more ‘easier’ Fed Chair taking the helm starting next June. As such, the medium views of 1) weaker USD, 2) higher inflation, 3) Treasury curve steepeners and 4) higher asset prices are likely to stay without a meaningful change in realized macro conditions.

All that hasn’t meant a lot of crypto, which saw BTC prices rebound to the 86–92k price range after a quiet week of trading. Unfortunately, underlying sentiment appears to have turned for the worst as Blackrock’s IBIT has suffered its longest streak of weekly outflows since inception, with nearly $2.9bln of cumulative outflows over the past 6 consecutive weeks.

The structural mood change can be seen from BTC’s recent correlation (or lack off), as it has dramatically underperformed the rest of the high-beta, risk-on complex over the past 8 weeks. The asset decoupling is happening at a time when the investor mindshare has fully pivoted to AI and related stocks, with global retail traders flocking back to day trading stocks (and prediction) markets, while gold and silver are still within a stone’s throw from ATHs.

From a production perspective, BTC continues to cover below most measure of product costs. Hash rate has fallen precipiously given China’s recent regulatory turn against crypto activities, as well as miners having shifted its compute resources towards AI and downsizing on their pure mining activities. A protracted stay underneath the product cost shall put additional pressures on miners which could lead to a further retreat in the hash rate and mining difficulty, leading to a more negatively reflexive loop of lower BTC prices in the medium term.

To make matters trickier, the collapse in global DATs has brought a lot of negative attention to supply overhang and possible forced selling should these listed equity prices trade significantly beneath their BTC treasury values. MSTR has been under the most pressure, with the company’s combined debt + equity values now barely trading at a premium to its BTC holdings. When pressed against the uncomfortable question of what happens if the ratio was to dip below 1, Saylor worrisomely said:
“When our equity is trading above the net asset value of the bitcoin, we just sell the equity it creates shareholder value and when the equity is trading below the (net asset) value of the bitcoin, we would either sell bitcoin derivatives or we would just sell the bitcoin.” — Michael Saylor at Binance Blockchain Week, December 3rd
Let’s hope that MSTR’s $1.4bln reserve fund will be able to keep them from force liquidating its BTC reserves in the foreseeable future.

Looking ahead, pretty much the same playbook as before — equities are likely to hold up heading into year-end, with fixed income underlying a near-term adjustment as yields trend higher with global central banks turning more neutral/hawkish outside of the Fed. We fear that crypto remains in a near-term bear market until proven otherwise, and is reflected in the vol market where traders continue to pay-up for protection against lower prices. It would likely take a very dovish cut (or a surprise SPX index inclusion decision) to reverse the near-term trend, so we expect more of the same grind lower in interest and sentiment heading into the new year.
Good luck & good trading.

Klíčové metriky: (17. listopadu 16:00 HK -> 1. prosince 16:00 HK)
BTC/USD -9,6% (95 600 $-> 86 400 $), ETH/USD -11,9% (3 200 $ -> 2 820 $)
Po poklesu směrem k klíčové podpoře na 80 000 $ před dvěma pátky, byl minulý týden charakterizován jako korektivní vzestup zpět z minim, když se trh v tenkých díkůvzdáních pokusil získat pevnou půdu před očekávaným „Santa“ rally. Tento týden začal s konfrontací s realitou: přebytek dlouhých pozic, které stále existují, a pivotní úroveň 89 000 $ vyvolala silný prodej během asijské seance. I když očekáváme, že trh v průběhu měsíce vytvoří „Santa rally“ (zejména s ohledem na očekávané snížení sazeb Fedem), zpočátku (pokračujeme) očekáváme, že nejpravděpodobnější cesta vpřed je opětovné testování minim odsud, ale toto minimum bude dlouhodobou příležitostí k nákupu. Účastníci, kteří minulý týden neprodali odraz, by mohli být trochu panikáři, zejména pokud neuvidíme rychlý návrat/vzestup směrem k rezistenci ($88.5–90k) a to by mohlo vyvolat pohyb dolů

No, to bylo rychlé. Po silném rally na riziko na konci týdne ceny kryptoměn prudce klesly na začátku prosince, přičemž BTC klesl pod 87 000 dolarů během dalšího běhu stop-lossu, který byl poháněn během tenké ranní seance v Asii.

I když je těžké obvinit konkrétní spouštěč, celková chuť na riziko zůstává slabá po výplachu v říjnu a listopadu, a to zhoršeno řadou negativních titulků, které se objevily během posledních několika sezení. S dalším útokem DeFi na OG protokol (Yearn staking), DEX terminál, který opustil své dlouho očekávané spuštění kvůli těžkým tržním podmínkám (Terminal Finance), OG Arthur Hayes otevřeně 'FUD'ing nedávný Monad ICO (99% pokles), snížení ratingu S&P na USDT na 'slabý' (špatné zveřejnění), a PBoC opakující svůj opatrný postoj k obchodování s kryptoměnami a stablecoiny, je pravděpodobně spravedlivé říci, že zůstáváme pevně v medvědím trhu, dokud není dále oznámeno.

Krypto vykázalo váhavé známky stabilizace po dramatickém výprodeji minulého týdne. Ceny se odrazily od nízkých 80k a obchodují se blízko 88k v ranních hodinách v pondělí, zatímco trh se blíží týdnu svátku Díkůvzdání s určitou opatrnou optimismem, jak prezident Fedu Williams obnovil očekávání na snížení sazeb v prosinci. Silný růst akcií (SPX +1,5 %, Nasdaq +2,7 %) před brzkými měsíčními rebalančními toky také pomohl posílit sentiment rizika.

Sentiment rizika se široce zlepšil, s otevřeným zájmem o BTC opce, který se mírně pozitivně obrací s poměrem put-call přibližně ~0,67 pro expiraci na konci měsíce. Velké put strike se objevují kolem 80k, protože put skews zůstávají agresivně nabízeny s velkým množstvím prodejních opčních kontraktů. Trhy se určitě cítí lépe zajištěny proti dalšímu poklesu v tomto okamžiku, což umožňuje trhům užít si oddechový skok proti úrovni podpory 82k.

Key metrics: (10Nov 4pm HK -> 17Nov 4pm HK)
BTC/USD -10.0% ($106,200-> $95,600), ETH/USD -11.6% ($3,620 -> $3,200)

The rally on the US government reopening news was short lived and the market turned, retesting and breaking the $98–100k support zone. This resulted in a move down to test the support at $93–94k which so far has managed to absorb supply and hold. At this point the breakdown from $112.5–115k post the October flash crash looks to be mostly played out and while it is hard to call the exact lows, we consider dips below here to provide good buying opportunities. More broadly the ABC move from $123k → $107k → $126k → current/$93k looks almost completely played out, however we could see market re-testing the $93–94k, looking for a print down towards $90k, given the growing bearish sentimentPositioning seems lighter out there and CTAs are likely short here, so we think the risk-reward of further downside in spot is shifting here. Below $93k, expect strong support at $89–90.5k. Should that break, there’s isn’t much strong support until we reach $79k (some limited support $83–85k) since <$90k area was a very choppy “pivot” level back in March/April this year. On the top side resistance comes in around $98–101k initially and then again at $104–107k. We think that in general realised volatility will remain elevated whether spot is going up or down, though market will likely try to sell down implied vols initially on the relief in spot (especially if we get back above $107k)
Market Themes
Extension of risk-off sentiment particularly in US Tech/AI names this week, as the end of the government shutdown proved to be a ‘buy the rumour sell the fact’ event for markets, with the initial relief rally in risk last week fading very quickly. Concerns around AI valuations and spending/investment arose once more while Fedspeak was broadly on the more hawkish side as the market continued to walk back pricing of the December rate cut, from over 90% priced a month ago to a coin-toss 50%/50% as per current pricing. Interestingly though, the pick-up in VIX was fairly muted compared to e.g October, as US equities indexes broadly held in fairly well, with most of the pain felt in AI names specificallyCrypto was not spared from the sell-off in risk assets as BTC plunged back below $100k and took out key support at $98k, trading down to a low of $92.9k over the weekend before finding some temporary equilibrium closer to $95k. ETH also traded down to test $3k again though found some good support again ahead of that level, gravitating back towards the $3.2k that seems to have been a more stable equilibrium for it in the past few sessions. Overall after this latest sell-off, the risk-reward dynamics for accumulating crypto at these levels seems relatively more attractive and we would expect to see a bit more 2-way in the absence of a more protracted sell-off in broader risk assets (or a more material spike in VIX). However native sentiment seems noticeably poor so it will be the resolve of IBIT holders/buyers that will be tested most closely in the coming sessions
BTC$ ATM implied vols

Implied vols rallied in line with the recent spot-vol correlation of higher volatility on lower spot, as we plunged back below $100k and took out key support of $98k. Realised volatility continued to remain high both on a high frequency basis but also on a fix-to-fix, with an 90+ vol observation between Thursday and Friday expiry on fix-to-fix. This extended period of high realised volatility is causing some stress in the market and driving a natural reflation of volatility further out the curve, as the market begins to price a higher structural vol base for the asset after an abnormally low period of realised vol over the recent summer monthsThe term structure of implied vols has flattened up driven by higher front-ends as gamma performance remains elevated. The curve moves have been relatively weighted in fashion (i.e. back end vols have still repriced higher but just by a lower beta vs front-end) as the market continues to feel relatively short vol overall. There has been decent demand observed for January/March/June strangles in the past week as the market looks to cover some legacy short vol positions that were put on when the term structure was much steeper
BTC$ Skew/Convexity

Skew prices broadly moved deeper for puts on the break of $100k and remains fairly bid for puts in gamma tenors as the downside remains the more vulnerable side of the distribution for now. However the market is cognisant of more 2-way risks from this level of spot, particularly on a slightly longer term basis, and this is keeping skew prices fairly stable in tenors further out, as we have begun to see some demand for topside for year-end and out at this lower spot entry levelConvexity prices moved lower as local gamma performed admirably in the past few sessions, while the market is starting to discount the extreme wing observations here as positioning seems to be cleaner and many feel we are coming to the last leg of the sell-off. Directional demand for an extension lower has been seen the in the form of put spreads (e.g. year-end 90k/70k put spreads) while topside plays also seem to be in call-spread format (e.g $110k/125k call spreads) — again adding further supply of convexity to the market. Overall at these levels and given the high vol-of-vol that we have witnessed we think flies are approaching value zone
Good luck for the week ahead!

Crypto prices faltered again the past week with BTC touching $94k on the back of a thin Monday selloff, with the majors selling off another 10–20% on a week-on-week basis, and native sentiment as pessimistic as it’s ever been, including the prior bear markets. While macro headwinds could be excused for driving part of the sell-off, crypto has legitimately underperformed most other asset classes, including levered tech stocks, which they have been most tightly correlated with.

Furthermore, post the October meltdown, persistent rumors of significant market maker losses have led to a significant drop in order book liquidity, exacerbating market moves and particularly to the downside.

Unsurprisingly, we’ve seen rapid deleveraging and real money outflows across the entire crypto complex. Significant CEX futures liquidations are followed by YTD highs in ETF outflows and DAT sales, with Blackrock’s IBIT seeing a single day record of -$463M in sales and DATs also seeing the first weekly outflows since inception.

The persistent sales have led to a collapse in DAT premium to negative territory, sparking concerns of treasury sales as companies dispose of assets to support the falling equity market cap. MSTR is obviously the elephant in the room, though Saylor was quick to publicly deny any sale shennigans, but the final verdict might be yet to be seen.

After a long period of doldrum, both realized and implied volatility have perked up as prices crashed through bull cycle ranges. In particular, put skews remain bid especially for ETH, where real money support less supportive than BTC, opening concerns for sharper downsides.

Amidst all the doom and gloom, have there been any good news out of the space as of late? Outside of the recent Square announcement that they have recently started to accept Bitcoin payments for their merchants, the latest 13F filings have also shown that the Harvard Endowment ($57B AUM) now has a $443M position in IBIT, their largest single equity holding in the portfolio. But before everyone gets too excited, it is unclear that if the position is an outright long or as a spread/arbitrage trade vs DATs or other crypto proxy. We lean towards the latter, but it’s still good to see that TradFi real money accounts are at least becoming more active participants in this space, even if it’s not just a pure long exposure.

Back on macro, US stocks shook off a shaky start despite a -3.8% sell off in the KOSPI and an early -2% swoon in the Nasdaq to close positive on the session while holding its 55d moving average support. Fixed income has also been under stress with Japan, Korea, and UK bonds all under pressure due to brewing fiscal / political concerns, with US treasuries facing similar headwinds as yields have reversed higher.

Over in the US, December rate cut odds have fallen towards 40% as Fed officials have been coming out in force to manage down easing spectations, with the US economy still largely holding in despite some concerns over the labour market. The biggest worry remains with inflation, where President Trump has recently suffered a significant setback in polls given high inflation and rising cost of living concerns, with former Treasury Secretary and Fed Chair Yellen declaring that the US is “in danger of becoming a banana republic”.
Fed Officials have Been Explicit in Managing Down Easing Expectations, with Former Chair Yellen Proclaiming the US Being in Danger of Being a “Banana Republic”
“It’s not obvious that monetary policy should be doing more right now,” — Cleveland Fed President Hammack
“As I look to the December meeting, I think it would be hard to support another rate cut unless we were to get convincing evidence that inflation is really coming down faster than my expectations or that we were seeing more than the gradual cooling that we’ve been seeing in the labor market.” — Dallas Fed President Logan
“I do not think further cuts in interest rates will do much to patch over any cracks in the labor market — stresses that more likely than not arise from structural changes in technology and immigration policy,” — Kanas City Fed President Schmid

Looking ahead, we’ll be keeping an eye out on a few things.
1.Deluge of Make-Up Data Releases Following Government Reopening
We expect rate cut expectations to be volatile over the next couple of weeks analysts begin to sift through a backlogged economic dataset

2. A Return of Macro Factors to Drive Near Term Asset Moves as Asset Vol have Picked Up
Cross-asset volatility has picked up as investors are focusing back economic growth with early stages of a labour slowdown against stubborn inflation

3. US Equities Remain Rangebound for Now, But Could See an Acceleration on a Sustained Break >7000 or <6500 on the SPX as the Gamma Profile Flips Negative

4. We Remain Cautiously Optimistic on US Equities on (Still) Rising Earnings Growth and Strong Retail Demand
While valuations are expensive, US corporate earnings growth remain at some of the highest levels in recent years

The retail bid in US equities has shown no signs of subsiding, and should be respected until the trend changes

5. Technical Picture on Crypto is Less Supportive, But Could Offer Decent Long-Term Entry Points
We continue to expect the fallout from the October collapse to drag-on as more victims surface, and more protocols to shut as more native participants exit on further dillusionmentDAT sales are a real risk and present a significant overhang on sentiment until further notice.Further sell-offs would present long-term attractive entry points given the continued and accelerating adoption of BTC in the US financial system.

Klíčové ukazatele: (3. listopadu 16:00 HK -> 10. listopadu 16:00 HK)
BTC/USD -1.0% ($107,200-> $106,200), ETH/USD -1.9% ($3,690 -> $3,620)
Po konečném překonání psychologické úrovně $100k minulý týden, pozitivní zprávy z Washingtonu o víkendu vedly k úlevovému rally, které odstartovalo týden a trh se obchodoval výše, aby otestoval předchozí úroveň/oblast podpory (nyní odporu) $104–107k. Skrze $107–108k očekáváme, že trh uvidí nějakou akceleraci na horní straně vzhledem k rozhodující/rozházené zóně $108–114k

Průlom výše by naznačil, že tato část korekce by mohla být dokončena a trh by se mohl připravit na rychlý a rozházený test ATH. Nakonec si myslíme, že by to vedlo k větší a trvalejší korekci, protože vidíme větší cyklus jako korektivní (i když plochou korektivní) pro nadcházející měsíce

Macro assets had a tough run last week, with Nasdaq suffering its worst weekly loss since Liberation Day in April, dragged down by concerns over a deflating AI bubble and disappointing economic data.

Despite being a ‘2nd-tier’ data release, last Wednesday’s Challenger layoff report shocked market participants with the largest Oct monthly spike since 2003 (+153k, 99k MoM increase), with layoffs driven largely by the private sector. Details showed over 30% of cuts were in warehousing, followed by 22% in tech. While the data can be noisy and not (yet) collaborated by more official payroll figures due to govt shut down, smoothed out averages do show a passing correlation with claims, with markets likely to start assigning more focus on labour data in the coming weeks given the apparent slowdown.

Furthermore, no doubt related to the length of the government shutdown, UMich consumer sentiment fell to the lowest levels since June 2022 (50.3 vs 53 consensus), with short-term inflation expectations sticky at around 3.9%. However, with the shutdown making positive steps to be resolved this week, markets will be hopeful for a sentiment bounce next month to suggest that this was just a temporary lull.

Early headlines this morning suggest that Senate Democrats have voted with Republicans (60–40 count) to overcome the filibuster and move forward with a proposed package that would finally reopen the federal government. The bill still needs to pass the House vote, which could take until Wed or Thursday, which means that might not make the critical CPI release on time.

The apparent deal is coming at a time with President Trump and the Republican party has taken a number of recent losses, starting with the ‘blue-sweep’ mid-term elections and the Supreme Court’s rulings against the President’s tariffs as being unconstitutional. Possible refunds of IEEPA tariffs might be necessary in the case of a negative ruling, which would unwind a fair chunk of budget deficit improvements this year, creating renewed uncertainties on the fiscal and debt issuance path from 2026 onwards.

Perhaps in response to these recent losses, President Trump floated a new stimulus check in the form of a $2000 tariff dividend directly to the American populace, in addition to a new 50-year mortgage to improve housing affordability.
The ‘tariff-dividends’ are reminiscent of the covid stimulus checks that were a direct and effective money-printing stimulus, while the ultra-long duration mortgages will provide additional leverage to the system. Both of these should be viewed as new forms of liquidity easing.

While TradFi assets were closed on the weekend when the news broke, BTC rose roughly 2–3% on this news with the government fully committed to their ‘easy-money’ ways. The Nasdaq also managed to hold its 50d MA last week through the sell-off, just as BTC has managed to hold the $100k support thus far.

Equity flow seasonals are also entering its most positive month in December, so it might be time to start preparing for a Xmas rally as most of the known risk factors might be behind us for now.

Crypto assets traded on the back-foot for much of the entire week, with BTC holding the $100k battle-line the best it can, following a string of perpetual liquidations, ETF outflows, and OG Whale selling.

Moreover, as more victims of the 10/10 collapse continue to surface, we are seeing increasing TVL outflows and stables de-peggings across a number of DeFi yield-bearing protocols, following the unfortunate developments in Stream Finance.

Meanwhile, while the majors and top altcoins are getting punished, old privacy coins (such as Zcash) have been gapping higher with the sector gaining ~100% over the past month. There’s a bit of a resurging narrative of the need for privacy given the increasing heavy entrenchment of TradFi control, though it’s not yet clear to us on whether that’s a sustainable theme, especially given the legislative environment.
Regardless, it’s nice to see at least some sectors doing well in this downturn, and we are feeling cautiously constructive that BTC has held the lows so far. With positions as clean as they have been for a long time, we would lean on the side of optimism as we head into year-end, especially in light of the improving macro catalysts as mentioned above.
Good luck & good trading.

S americkou vládou stále v lockdownu byla hlavní událost minulého týdne s FOMC, kde zklamali tržní holuby, když Powell odmítl plně ceněný prosincový pokles jako "daleko od" "předem daného závěru". Navzdory poklesu sazby o 25 bazických bodů Powell naznačil, že existují "silně odlišné názory" mezi výborem, přičemž přibližně polovina výboru podporuje kumulativní pokles o 75 bazických bodů ve čtvrtém čtvrtletí, a druhá polovina nesouhlasí. Kromě toho událost uzavření vlády ztížila ekonomické prognózy ještě více než obvykle, a Fed zašel tak daleko, že naznačil, že by mohli být "opatrní" tím, že by vyčkali na prosincové zasedání, aby zjistili, zda je další pokles opodstatněný.

Hlavní metriky: (27. října 16:00 HK -> 3. listopadu 16:00 HK)
BTC/USD -7.3% ($115,600-> $107,200), ETH/USD -12.1% ($4,200 -> $3,690)
Trh pokračuje v kolísání v rozmezí $104/105-$115/116k, přičemž realizovaná volatilita zůstává zvýšená, i když se absolutní rozpětí zmenšuje — to naznačuje, že trh má potíže najít rovnováhu, zmatený rozpojením mezi kryptoměnami a technologiemi/vysokobeta jednotlivými akciemi a obávající se možnosti, že zlato/drahé kovy budou mít výraznější korekci směrem dolů. Technicky očekáváme další pokles, abychom dokončili tuto plochou korekční nohu (první z potenciální třínohého plochého vícemonetního (rok?) korekce), ale mohli bychom vidět, jak se rozpětí bude ještě pár sezení / týdnů pohybovat tam a zpět.

Klíčové metriky: (6. října 16:00 HK -> 27. října 16:00 HK)
BTC/USD -6,4% (123,450-> 115,600), ETH/USD -7,5% (4,540 -> 4,200)
Trh nám dal docela jasnou a zřetelnou vlnu B vysokou kolem 126k $, a od té doby strávil většinu posledních 2 týdnů testováním podpor od 109–104k $, ačkoli se nyní opět vrátil k testování odporu na úrovni 114,5–117,5k $. Náš názor je, že toto je pravděpodobně vlna 2 z 5 většího postupu dolů pod 95k $, ale vzhledem k obtížím při zohlednění flash-crashe 11. října existuje riziko, že jsme se dostali do delší korekce, která by mohla znovu otestovat maxima vlny B (před tím, než se opraví dolů). Podpora dolů na 109k $ zde a poté znovu na 107k $ a 105–104,5k $, zatímco na horní straně počáteční klíčový odpor na 117,5k $ před 121–125k $ silnějším odporem

Americké akcie se v pondělí dostaly na další rekordní maximum, vedené Nasdaqem s nárůstem o +1,6 % a SPX se zvýšil o 1 %. Optimismus ohledně dalšího údajně čínsko-amerického obchodního dohody, býčí pozicování do výnosů Mag-7 a očekávání dalšího jestřábího zasedání Fedu povzbudilo rizikovou náladu.


Volatilita napříč aktivy se také propadla zpět blízko rekordních minim, když se investoři opět vrhli do rizikových pozic, zatímco globální akcie by také mohly vykazovat významné vzestupné průlomy, přičemž šanghajský index se zdá, že prorazil 10letou klesající trendovou linii.

Makro zakončilo bouřlivý týden na silné notě, s dalším ‘TACO’ od Prezidenta, když veřejně přiznal, že vysoké tarify na Čínu nejsou “udržitelné” a že se skutečně setká s prezidentem Xi za dva týdny, jak naznačila ministryně Bessent a jeho tým.

Navíc, další čtvrtletí silnějších než očekávaných výsledků bankovních zisků pomohlo uklidnit některé obavy z soukromého kreditu po bankrotu First Brands a odepsání subprime auto věřitele (Tricolor, $170M charge-off), i přesto, že Jamie Dimon hrozivě prohlásil, že “A pravděpodobně bych to neměl říkat, ale když vidíte jednoho švába, pravděpodobně jich je víc. A měli bychom — všichni by měli být na to upozorněni.”, pokud jde o více kreditních defaultů v budoucnu.

Nejhorší den likvidace od FTX.. $19bln (nebo mnohem více) v PNL bylo vymazáno z algoritmů ADL (automatické odleveraging) napříč CEXy… altcoiny se dostávaly na nulu, jak podpora market makerů zmizela… Pravděpodobně není potřeba, abychom znovu opakovali, co byl brutální pátkový závěr pro obchodníky s kryptoměnami a makro investory.

Obchodní příměří mezi Čínou a USA náhle skončilo, když prezident Trump narušil klid vyčerpanou reakcí na obnovené vývozní kontroly Číny, které jsou bezprecedentní ve své složitosti a komplexnosti. Dlouhý víkend v USA/Japonsku přinesl nešťastné načasování, když trhy katastrofálně spadly do pátkového uzavření, což vedlo k poklesu o -4 % na Nasdaq a okamžitému vymazání napříč mnoha altcoiny.

Klíčové metriky: (22. září 16:00 HK -&gt; 6. října 16:00 HK)
· BTC/USD +9,2% ($113,000 -&gt; $123,450), ETH/USD +8,6% ($4,180-&gt; $4,540)

Velmi ostrý a rychlý pohyb zpět k testování a vytváření nových maxim v minulém týdnu, poté, co se snížil na $108k na konci měsíce/čtvrtletí při vyrovnání týdne předtím. Technicky se zdá, že (rozšířená?) plochá korekce, kterou jsme hledali, začala probíhat. Vzhledem k tomu, že cenová akce je široce konzistentní s našimi dlouhodobými úrovněmi, nadále si myslíme, že plochá korekce je zde nejpravděpodobnější dynamikou, a s tím si myslíme, že by mohlo dojít k vrcholu kolem $129–130k; nad tímto bodem budeme muset znovu přehodnotit tento pohyb, jak se stává stále pravděpodobnějším, že je součástí progresivního pohybu. Očekáváme dobrou podporu při zpětných pohybech zpočátku na $120–118k, ale jakékoli pohyby pod tuto úroveň by mohly znamenat, že se dostáváme do naší očekávané agresivnější korekce vlny C dolů (pod $100k)

V souladu s předchozími lety si trhy užily výbušný začátek Uptober s BTC a akciemi, které se dostaly na nová historická maxima, přičemž americké akcie byly podpořeny dalším multi-miliardovým obchodem OpenAI/AMD, zatímco japonské akcie vzrostly o 5 % (JPY FX -2 %) poté, co Takaichi-san překvapil vítězstvím v oblasti vedení jako fiskální holubice.

Navzdory výpadku dat způsobenému vládním uzavřením se akciový trh i nadále rozvíjel, přičemž vedly polovodiče (+4,4 %), biotechnologie (+10 %) a spotřební zboží (+3,6 %) v minulém týdnu. Několik dat, která přišla, stále vykazuje silnou americkou ekonomiku, přičemž překvapení přicházejí na nejvyšších úrovních od počátku roku proti sníženým očekáváním. HDP USA se široce očekává, že dosáhne dna ve čtvrtém čtvrtletí před tím, než se v roce 2026 výrazně vzchopí, a to díky dostatečné likviditě systému a odolnému americkému spotřebiteli.

Key metrics: (15Sep 4pm HK -> 22Sep 4pm HK)
BTC/USD -2.2% ($115,500 -> $113,000), ETH/USD -9.1% ($4,600-> $4,180)

BTC spot price action continues to exhibit dynamics that are consistent with our flat corrective pattern. From here our base case is that after a test of $112k lows (possibly a brief visit to $111–110k), a hold/bounce off this level will set up for a re-test of all time highs. That final wave higher will be the setup for an eventual violent move back lower. Should key support at $110–112k fail to hold, then this would potentially suggest the multi-year progression has indeed already completed with the visit to $124–125k in August. Locally, topside resistance is at $116k and then larger resistance at $117.5–118k, which notably held both after Jackson Hole and FOMC
Market Themes
Focus was on FOMC this week with the 25bp cut cemented following the US data this month, but all eyes were on Powell’s tone and the committee’s dots to ascertain whether the market’s pricing of the future rate path would be validated. Ultimately this was the case with 50bps of further cuts for this year in the dots and Powell/committee rather sanguine on inflationary risks from tariffs at this juncture. The knee-jerk reaction was a pop in equities and a sell-off in the USD, though this was quickly reversed as the market had pretty much priced this in fully and booked profits accordingly. However equities have subsequently marched on higher with nothing obvious to stand in the way and US-China relations moving steadily in the right direction as an additional tailwindCrypto initially benefited from the risk-supportive FOMC, with BTC testing up to key resistance at $117.5–118k in the 24h following the event. ETF inflows were modest after a decent pick up in the prior 2 weeks. However, once again the market was left disappointed with the lack of follow-through and relative underperformance of the asset class, with BTC eventually reversing the whole move and plunging to $112k support on Monday, while SOL rejected a break of $250 to pullback to $220 and ETH also failed again at key resistance around $4800, plunging to $4150 on Monday. Ultimately it feels there are sufficiently attractive alternative ways to invest for returns in this environment (mainly US tech/AI) and as such retail participation in crypto remains broadly muted
BTC$ ATM implied vols

Realised volatility continued to remain in the low-mid 20s last week, as ETF inflows/treasury purchases (MSTR) helped to underpin spot, while significant offers remain on every leg higher, capping the realised vol on the topside for now. The underperformance of gamma locally resulted in daily vols pricing at around 22–25 vols this week, while there was a last minute squeeze for gamma over FOMC pushing overnight to 60 vols ahead of the event, pricing a break-even of 2.4% which ultimately didn’t realiseThe lacklustre realised vol weighed heavily on the implied vol curve, particularly in the front-end towards the end of last week. Some fresh supply of 1w at the local lows of 25–26 vols was seen to end the week, as the market continues to seek yield in this environment. Further out the curve the vol levels have found a bit of support with absolute valuations reaching historical lows on a multi-year look-back
BTC$ Skew/Convexity

Skew prices moved aggressively for puts towards the end of the week, after the disappointing lack of follow-through on the topside and low realised vol was countered by nervousness as spot began to retrace and eventually manifested in a sharp pullback lower on Monday. Ultimately though realised volatility was pretty low even though we pulled back 5.5% from the highs, with the market still clearly long local gamma, and this has resulted in a lack of sustained performance of the risk reversals from a spot-vol correlation perspective.Convexity prices moved higher towards the end of the week from already elevated levels, as the market continues to seek wing protection particularly on the downside given the poor price action and the institutional longs that have built up over the past few months. However these levels of convexity (particularly in shorter dated expiries) are unsustainable, especially given base vols are already very low, and — unless the range break happens imminently — any short dated wing protection will decay rapidly at the valuations
Good luck for the week ahead!

Podle Bloombergu, již po 26. za posledních 100 let, S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow Jones Average a Russell 2000 všechny nastavily nová historická maxima během stejného týdne, přičemž sentiment melt-up pokračoval nezmenšen. Zároveň kreditní spready investičního stupně dosáhly historických minim od roku 1998, přičemž index dosahoval pouhých 0,72 % nad ekvivalentními státními dluhopisy, což nabízí téměř žádnou ochrannou rezervu, pokud by se ekonomika skutečně zhoršila.

Na geopolitické straně došlo k významnému zlepšení v narativu USA-Čína s předběžnou dohodou TikTok, přičemž telefonát Trumpa a Siho potvrdil pokračující pokrok v obchodních rozhovorech. Vůdci také slíbili osobní schůzku během summitu APEC v Jižní Koreji příští měsíc, což by bylo jejich první osobní setkání od G20 v roce 2019. To vše povzbudilo rizikový sentiment, zejména u akcií EM, přičemž BoJ dokonce naznačila plány na (pomalý) odprodej svých ETF podílů, přičemž TOPIX dosahuje historických maxim.

Key metrics: (8Sep 4pm HK -> 15Sep 4pm HK)
BTC/USD +3.8% ($111,300 -> $115,500), ETH/USD +7.2% ($4,290 -> $4,600)

BTC spot is trading in a manner consistent with our evolving view that we have primarily finished the progression that began in Sep 2024 and moving into a corrective phase. We think this is likely to be a flat correction with the market poised to test the highs (and possibly make a new ATH) before setting up for a bigger correction lower. Such a correction will likely take out the $101k support and throw us back into the volatile price region of $88–92k. This in turn could ultimately lead to a three wave mutli-month (or even year long) correction that takes us down to the $60–75k region. Top side resistance initially comes in around $118k and then above there, $120k before ATH above. Support is likely to be solid around $112–113k below here
Market Themes
Focus was on US data and earnings last week, with the threshold to de-rail Fed pricing for a cut in September very high coming into the week on the back of a soft NFP print. Soft UMich confidence and PPI gave the market the green light for the rates market to continue to price a full cutting cycle from the Fed even ahead of the CPI print, with 6 cuts being priced in by the end of 2026. The headline CPI number was actually on the strong side, with MoM core at 0.346% marking the highest print since January… despite this the market shrugged it off quite quickly given the recent Fed-speak and focus around jobs and this gave US equities the green-light to continue their rally into the weekendCrypto benefited from the risk-supportive backdrop and BTC filled the $116k-110k gap from post Jackson Hole. ETF inflows picked up considerably after a quiet ‘summer lull’, as the market regains confidence in the space after an underwhelming few months of performance. The collapse in NAV premium of DATs is actually probably helping sentiment broadly speaking, as coin prices begin to decorrelate from DAT-equity prices once more. Having said that, SOL was ultimately a beneficiary last week of the announcement of Galaxy Digital leading a $1.65billion investment in Forward Industries to establish a Solana treasury, pushing up towards $250
BTC$ ATM implied vols

Realised volatility dropped off significantly last week into the low-mid 20s, as ETF inflows returned to underpin spot, while significant offers remain on every leg higher, capping the realised vol on the topside for now. As we move incrementally higher towards the psychological resistance band of $120–124k, it will be key to see how this realised dynamic plays out, as orderbook offers/liquidity may start to thin outThe lacklustre realised vol weighed heavily on the implied vol curve, particularly in the front-end towards the end of last week. However with FOMC ahead this Wednesday and spot probing the upper end of the recent range, we have seen front-end vols naturally reflate ahead of the events and it’s possible we see renewed participation in call spreads to play for the ‘BTC catch-up’ trade to global liquidity/lower rates, which may lend some support to expiries beyond September
BTC$ Skew/Convexity

Skew prices gradually priced less for puts over the course of last week, as the ETF inflows underpinning spot helped to keep realised volatility muted on the downside and the risk-supportive backdrop helped spot clear initial resistance in the $113–114k zone. However structural demand for topside remains muted compared to previous and cycles and if anything the market continues to see downside protection bought on rallies from long cash players given the suppressed levels of volConvexity prices moved higher towards the end of the week and the market continues to seek wing protection given the historical poor seasonality for BTC over September and the market well positioned for risk-on over Fed. While predominantly the demand was for downside keeping skew very bid for puts, the recent rally in spot has brought into view wing topside strikes above the prior ATH and that has manifested in higher flies (and skew less for puts) as the market clearly does not want to be caught too short optionality in the event of a break of prior ATH
Good luck for the week ahead!