ALISHBA SOZAR

The Big Sunday Report: All You Need to Know

🚩 TA / LCA / Psychological Breakdown:

This is an early Sunday report, published on Saturday due to the current market movement and a very important development. For the first time in a month, BTC is breaking out above the Silver Line, which was rejected in the last five attempts, now with a clear retest and bullish confirmation. What does this mean? It means that Bitcoin has managed to defeat the bears at this short-term resistance, giving a clear signal that it is ready to move further. This is what I have been waiting for over the past two months. After hitting my target of 80k, I clearly stated that targets of 97–107k were not off the table before continuing the downside move, and that I was buying spot at 85k, looking to sell between 97–107k. Now it looks like the market wants to make this move. For this reason, I am placing several short orders between 97–107k, where each line represents one short order. For example, if my trading capital is 10k, I divide it into 12 parts and place each order with its respective size. This is how I always trade to catch the absolute best average price for shorts.

At the same time, I keep the shorts from 115–125k fully open, as the placed short orders are important preparations in case the market allows us to visit these levels. Remember that I remain fully bearish on this market and am targeting levels below 70k in the coming months.

Something that supports my bearish narrative is the fact that on New Year’s Day, the FED lent $106bn in overnight repo operations to banks. The question is: why? Why such a large amount? The more important answer is that the FED changed the lending rules in September 2025, on the same day as the FOMC press release, likely to avoid too much attention on the new rule. Back then, the standing repo had a daily limit of $500bn to be lent, meaning it would be returned within a day or two to the FED. Now its a total cap for all banks combined, up to $240bn per single bank, which is a major red flag that screams one thing very clearly: the system is under far more stress than most people are willing to admit. In simple terms, the Fed is preparing for situations where multiple large institutions may need massive liquidity at the same time, and they are making sure there is no chaos when that moment arrives. And history showed us, the moment when Banks been in pressure, needed help or been sitting at extreme low liquidity, the markets didnt like it at all and we saw a bear market. This is the current scenario. This is exactly what I predicted in August when I turned bearish, calling it by name: a repo and liquidity crisis. Now, on New Year’s Day, we saw the largest amount ever lent: $106 BILLION US DOLLARS! AGAIN $106bn!!!! That is something that should have shaken the markets, yet the markets did not seem to react.

At the same time, insiders continue to sell at maximum speed. I have been able to predict these events very accurately, and I am more than confident that a 2008-style crash will repeat in the near future. The entire market is putting pressure on banks, while silver is liquidating and applying stress to one bank after another. Is this the reason banks are borrowing more and more money to cover their short positions in silver? These are crazy times we are living in, and congratulations to everyone who trusted my words, as what I predicted and shared has once again come true. Many people ignore these fundamental signs, but the market is extremely bearish and could crash at any moment. I am bullish only on gold and silver, ultra-bearish on stocks and BTC, and opening large shorts across almost all of them. If the market allows a move into the 97–107k region, I will add a significant amount of capital to shorts. On top of that, I will realize the spot position from 85k and add those profits to the short positions as well.

New macro data just dropped and it’s worse than anyone realizes.

This is not a drill.

98% of people will lose everything this year.

Not because of a normal recession.
Not because of a bank run.
Not because of never-ending military conflicts.
Something bigger is coming.

It starts in sovereign bonds - especially U.S. Treasuries.

Bond volatility is waking up.
The MOVE index is rising, and that never happens without stress underneath.
Bonds don’t move on stories, they move when funding tightens.

And right now, three fault lines are converging:

1⃣ U.S. Treasury

In 2026, the U.S. must refinance massive debt while running huge deficits.
Interest costs are surging, foreign demand is fading, dealers are constrained, and long-end auctions are already showing cracks.

Weaker demand. Bigger tails. Less balance sheet.
That’s how funding shocks begin - quietly.

2⃣ Japan

The largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries and the core of global carry trades.
If USD/JPY keeps climbing and the BOJ reacts, carry trades unwind fast.

When that happens, Japan sells foreign bonds too - adding pressure to U.S. yields at the worst possible time.

Japan doesn’t start the fire, but it'll contribute to it big way.

3⃣ China

Their massive local-government debt problem still sits unresolved.
If that stress surfaces, the yuan weakens, capital flees, the dollar strengthens - and U.S. yields rise again.

China amplifies the shock.
The trigger doesn’t need to be dramatic.
One badly received 10Y or 30Y auction is enough.

We’ve seen this before - the UK crisis in 2022 followed the same script.
This time, the scale is global.

If a funding shock hits, the sequence is clear:
Yields spike → Dollar up → Liquidity dries up → Risk assets sell off fast.

Then central banks step in.
Liquidity injections → Swap lines →Balance sheet tools.

Stability returns, but with more liquidity.
Real yields fall → Gold breaks out → Silver follows → Bitcoin recovers → Commodities move → The dollar rolls over.

The shock sets up the next inflationary cycle.
That’s why 2026 matters.
Not because everything collapses, but because multiple stress cycles peak at once.

The signal is already there.
Bond volatility doesn’t rise early by accident.
The world can survive recessions.
What it can’t handle is a disorderly Treasury market.

That risk is building quietly - and by the time it’s obvious, it’s too late.

Many will wish they paid attention sooner.

zeptal jsem se ho, co odděluje obchodníky, kteří přežijí, od obchodníků, kteří vybuchnou

jeho odpověď mě překvapila

nebyla to strategie. nebyla to disciplína. nebyla to psychologie.

"sázky na velikost. to je ono. to je celá hra."

tady je to, co vysvětlil:

TEZE:

"Viděl jsem stovky obchodníků, kteří prošli. dobré. chytré. talentované."

"90 % těch, kteří vybuchli, nevybuchli kvůli špatným obchodům. vybuchli kvůli špatnému velikosti na normálních obchodech."

"ztráta 1R při správné velikosti je nic. ztráta 1R při 10x správné velikosti je smrt účtu."