华尔街之猫-DQ

Finance with wisdom, knowing when to hold and when to let go; prioritize risk control before seeking returns.

Daily in-depth market analysis, with exclusive one-on-one guidance;
Adhere to long-term, steady appreciation, and reject short-term speculation and games of chance.

Plan first, then act; know when to stop, and you’ll gain.
I am Ding Qing—together with you on this long journey through the market.

Review this week’s Sandisk SNDK plan:
1. Keep early defense at 1165; Xingqing hasn’t broken the key level.
2. From lower levels, give pullbacks at 1212 and 1325 to meet the entry conditions, aiming for the first-stage target of 1400–1462.
3. After the catalyst is triggered, use 1580 as the confirmation level on the right side; meanwhile, suggest a pullback buy at 1520 low entry, and abandon the setup if it breaks below 1510.
4. Throughout: don’t chase mid-way rallies, don’t subjectively guess the top—only consider short-term trades if conditions are met.

Key levels to watch next week:
Upper resistance: 1675–1700, then further heavy pressure at 1800;
Lower support: 1550, then 1480–1520;
If there is an effective breakdown below 1500, be alert for a deep pullback to 1350–1400.

We need to know: the better entry cost > predicting direction. If the “profit chase” setup is too exaggerated, better miss the trade than force an order. The storage period is still ongoing, but it’s no longer a blind, broad-based uptrend; going forward, focus on whether orders and liquidity delivery can be fulfilled.

$SNDK #SpaceX股价涨至140美元 #沙特PIF披露持有1.541亿股SpaceX #闪迪股价涨幅扩大至11%

Many people, upon seeing a big surge, have the first reaction to go long. But this week I’ve kept reminding everyone to be cautious when making long trades on SNDK.

Looking back at the price action: the range of 1000–1600 is a true surge phase for a breakout rally, with almost no historical resistance in the middle. For this kind of stock, a blowout rally doesn’t necessarily mean an immediate pullback—the chart can be extremely wild.

From a fundamentals perspective, the key driver of this round of gains is the Investor Day: in 2028–2030, the company expects mid-to-high double-digit growth, an 80% gross margin target, and long-term customer agreements that lock in revenue. Short-covering is just an accelerator for the move; it isn’t the root cause of the rally.

So my plan: don’t proactively chase longs. If you do try, it can only be a small-position trade around the pressure level—any upside breakout must come with a stop loss. Always respect the market—never assume it will definitely dip back just because it’s risen a lot.

$SNDK #SpaceX股价涨至140美元 #闪迪股价涨幅扩大至11%

After Investor Day’s major performance guidance came out, Sandisk accelerated its rally, reaching a high of 1580. On August 14, I clearly stated: the overall direction is biased bullish, don’t chase midway, just wait for confirmation signals. At the time, I laid out two execution plans for the trade:

1️⃣ Breakout follow-through: with volume, hold and stand firm at 1580; if it doesn’t fall back within the next ten-odd minutes, follow with a light position;

2️⃣ Pullback buy: wait for the pullback to 1520; only when a low-volume pullback holds up, then buy the dip. Hard risk control: if it breaks below 1510, don’t try to catch it. Backup setup conditions: only if it breaks below 1510 and then the rebound can’t push up past 1530—then consider a short. Until the conditions are met, don’t subjectively guess the top or try to time the bottom.

$SNDK #SpaceX股价涨至140美元 #沙特PIF披露持有1.541亿股SpaceX

August 8: provide the first trading plan: around 1212.
Defense rules: if it breaks below 1212 and you can’t get back within 3–4 hours, exit;
The take-profit zone given at the time: 1400–1462.

After the price completes this round of targets, the daily chart officially breaks through the downward trendline.

August 13: update the view—only consider setting up a buy plan; don’t guess the top.

The optimal entry for this buy plan is around 1325, with a defense/stop at 1300; once the price falls back inside the downward trendline, the buy plan is immediately invalid.

As you can see, from 1212 → 1325, both batches are waiting for a pullback to lower levels. Instead of chasing the price after it’s already risen, the focus is on achieving a comfortable holding cost.

$SNDK #沙特PIF披露持有1.541亿股SpaceX #SpaceX股价涨至140美元 #闪迪股价涨幅扩大至11%

This month, Sandisk SNDK’s full round of upward momentum began with early key defensive levels, and then escalated violently as investor-day catalysts intensified—everything remained within the prior framework.

Initial hint on August 6: 1165 is an important threshold—hold steady and look for confirmation; only an effective break below counts as the turning point.

After that, the rally didn’t break down—prices held the key levels and then kicked off a new upswing.

The most important first step for any trader is to first draw the life-and-death line; before the direction is confirmed, prioritize risk control above all else.

In the rest of this week, as fundamental catalysts explode, it should keep moving higher. However, I do not recommend chasing at mid-route the whole time—I insist on waiting for confirmation signals or for pullback-and-hold (retest/absorption) opportunities.

$SNDK #沙特PIF披露持有1.541亿股SpaceX #闪迪股价涨幅扩大至11%

Finding the right position isn’t actually hard; the real difficulty of doing this lies in mindset:
When the entry point is near, you can’t help but enter early and get trapped;
Without hitting the stop-loss, you panic and exit early, and the price then moves as expected;
You make a small profit and start thinking of taking it, but when you’re down you stubbornly hold without cutting the loss;
You win small multiple times, and in the end, a single big loss wipes back all the gains.

Some of it is about the position, but more often it’s about human psychology. If you can read the trend but can’t beat yourself, it’s still hard to do well at trading.

$SNDK $SPCX #闪迪涨7%因营收增长展望 #沙特PIF披露持有1.541亿股SpaceX

At the moment, the market still keeps trading around the 630 range with repeated oscillations. I don’t recommend blindly chasing here again—the value for money is already very low.

At this stage, my best trading rhythm is very clear: patiently wait for a pullback around 620–615, then enter again at the right time, and wait until the rebound touches the 640 resistance level before trying your luck to enter once more. Just follow the overall market rhythm.

From a technical pattern perspective, a complete downtrend usually plays out as a five-wave structure. After the five waves complete, there often follows an ABC correction pullback. Given the current chart, the downside momentum has already largely exhausted, so there’s no need to keep pressing for further shorting.

By the way, let me share my recent trading reflections—I'm sure this is also a common problem for many people:

- Holding the position for too short a cycle only lets you earn small gains on short-term trades, wasting high-quality entry points and missing out on an entire segment of trend movement.

- But if you hold for too long, greed can easily grow and you may become overly dependent on the market, intentionally ignoring abnormal price movements along the way. Often, the trend quietly reverses—profits can be given back significantly, and you may even hold from floating profit all the way to stop-loss and exit. It’s not worth it.

Why not try the approach I often use:

Long-term trade: low leverage, loosen the stop-loss, extend the holding period, and focus on capturing an entire segment of the major trend movement.

Short-term trade: flexible higher leverage—when floating profit reaches the target, cut the position in half first, and set the remaining portion to break-even to lock in gains.

These two position approaches each have their own role: long-term trades catch the trend, short-term trades capture swings. Don’t go all-in, and don’t miss opportunities. Keeping a stable trading mindset is what allows you to survive in the market for the long run.

$BTC #SEC审查6只3倍杠杆商品ETF #闪迪涨7%因营收增长展望

Let’s talk about SNDK. Yesterday I said I wasn’t really interested in doing this, but many people are curious where you can “buy” it.

This wave surged from 1000 all the way to 1600. Along the way, it’s basically true “straight-up” action with no obvious resistance, so during the earlier big spike phase I had absolutely no intention to “buy.”

Right now, the strongest resistance above is around 1800. Also, there’s some smaller-level pressure around 1680.

For aggressive folks: you can try a small “buy” position near 1680. If it breaks slightly upward, then set a stop loss immediately. You’re gambling for a pullback/continuation for more than 10 “points” of upside, and the risk-reward is acceptable.

One key reminder: a big rally in US stocks doesn’t necessarily mean it will pull back. Some tickers move extremely—trading behaves unpredictably. Support and resistance levels are of very limited reference value for such instruments, so don’t act recklessly on them.

$SNDK #闪迪涨7%因营收增长展望 #英伟达披露持股SpaceX210亿美元及英特尔300亿美元

No matter whether it’s the short-term chart or the daily chart, the Yitai (ETH) trend is much more solid than the Big Cake (BTC).

Over here on the Big Cake side, things are dire: the levels at 65 and 64 have been breached one after another, and 63 is now also teetering.

The Yitai (ETH) is still holding in the high range, and the trendline hasn’t been broken yet.

If I *have* to choose a direction, I’m leaning bearish, but I don’t recommend jumping in short the Yitai directly right now.

Because to a large extent, Yitai moves in tandem with Big Cake (BTC). If Big Cake pokes back up with a needle around 62, Ethereum will directly pull up to 1900, and then your quick stop-loss will be gone.

I’ll patiently wait to place the short around 1900. If you really want to trade, then use spot holdings.

It’s only August right now, and this pullback hasn’t finished falling yet.

$ETH #BNB链将激活Pasteur硬分叉

False rebound illusion on Friday’s bullish day: Not selling off ≠ going up. Over the weekend, it’s likely still a narrow-range sideways consolidation, and candlestick reference value is low.

Holding through the weekend means facing a total of 9 times of funding/fee costs. Your holding cost and liquidation price position will both be continuously affected.

Two ends are awkward: chasing long fears the rebound, while going short has to endure the funding/fee losses. The priority is to control costs—first consider your ability to withstand stop-loss, then look at profit.

The 620 on the daily chart is an important line of defense. If it breaks, it may probe down to the curve-formation area starting with “5”. Don’t chase the short on the upside.

For short-term: the plan is to take profit at 622. For long-term: continue holding the low-multiplier position; short-term longs will wait at the 620 area.

Weekend range reference: 624‑633

$BTC #Cboe申请3倍比特币与以太坊ETF #Anthropic二季度营收增长逾14倍

Shandi surges higher—what you might be curious about is why the short-covering pull-up can push prices upward?

The logic is simple: short-covering and cutting losses—closing shorts at the bottom itself—is essentially a buy order.

Those who are short and can’t withstand losses are forced to buy back; those buy orders surge in and further lift the price, forming a positive feedback loop.

Now SNDK has three layers of buy pressure: fundamental institutional capital, trend-based quantitative capital, and short-covering.

But it’s important to distinguish this: it’s not the kind of extreme short squeeze like GME—some short-covering participants have already exited. Short-covering is just an accelerator; the core driver of this rally is still the surprise-beating earnings guidance.

Trading plan:

1. Wait for a pullback: if it retraces to around 1550, or the 1480–1520 range, then stabilizes and shows a reversal with strong volume on an up candle, you can try a light position
2. Breakout and follow-through: you can also participate if it directly closes above 1650 with volume, but be sure to control your position size

The first target is around 1737.

$SNDK #标普500周五回落连续第三周上涨 #闪迪股价涨幅扩大至11%

SNDK really can’t be messing around blindly—if there’s no room for it, then don’t do it. Just rest. These force-up and shove-up green candles are not easy to control.

Not every time do we have to eat from fish head to fish tail. From “holding 1165 just to continue” to “1212 directly flashes, hitting the target 1400–1462,” then to “1325 flashes,” and then to “once 1580 stabilizes, directly flashes.”

They’ve given us plenty for the fish head and fish body too :-)

$SNDK #闪迪股价涨幅扩大至11%

A dough of five thousand—(the) yellow croaker chased after him for two rounds of hustle, then he swung back and slapped his way in. He dozed off all day; when he woke up, it was an unexpected surprise ( ̀⌄ ́)

$XAU #油价小幅走高 #Reddit将纳入标普500

SanDisk SNDK is really gaining momentum right now—it’s been surging straight up, with almost no chance for pullbacks to offer an entry.

1675‑1700 is a strong resistance zone. I expect that once price pushes into this area, there will be a pullback, with targets looking toward 1500‑1530.

I’d rather wait for it to dip back into this range before placing the order. After all, this breakout’s momentum is strong, and trading volume is gradually rising. After a retracement, the cost-performance for placing the trade will be much better.

One reminder! In this kind of rush-driven move, chasing blindly will feel awful—you can easily get whipsawed back and forth. It’s better to wait for a comfortable position rather than forcing the move.

$SNDKB #闪迪股价涨幅扩大至11%

Remember one sentence: if there isn’t a suitable price, don’t rush to place an order.

For example, SPCX: the trend has already broken, but now it’s at 136—neither high nor low, not a good position.

If you rush in at this time and get whipsawed, even if your big direction is right, your mindset will be worn down. You won’t be able to hold the position, and in the end you still won’t make any money.

Whether you do誃 or do誃, the core of being able to hold the position is that your entry cost is comfortable enough.

Better to miss a wave of green than to force yourself to do a questionable order.

$SPCXB #闪迪股价涨幅扩大至11% #全球股市逼近历史高位

SNDK evening reminder: set 1650–1700 as the take-profit position. The first objective has already been reached successfully.

Earlier, I reminded you to take profit in batches—take some of the liquidity, and for the remaining positions, gamble against the 1700 pressure level.

Focus on the test results at 1700: if price is blocked here and falls back, then prioritize watching the 1450 support and see whether it can once again break out into a rebound.

If 1450 support holds, it’s a structure of a pullback followed by another push higher; if it turns out to be a bottoming formation, then use 1450 as the take-profit level.

The previously provided position plan has been fulfilled. From here, just follow the signal on the chart and execute accordingly.

$SNDKB #闪迪股价涨幅扩大至11% #DeepSeek推出Harness代码智能体公测

This SNDK upswing isn’t just emotion-driven speculation. Investors have laid out long-term goals—by 2028–2030, revenue is projected to grow in the high double digits; the gross margin target is 80%. Long-term customer agreements are in place to stabilize revenue, providing fundamental support for the market.

From August 6, when I told everyone to consider entries at 1165, to what I explained clearly this afternoon: once 1580 holds steady, you can follow up and enter. The price action also confirms this judgment. Now the price is at 1641; you can take partial profits and secure gains. The targets are 1650–1700. If it spikes higher and then falls back below 1500, we need to be cautious and be prepared to test the 1350–1400 range.

The big picture hasn’t changed. The AI storage cycle hasn’t finished yet, but the trend has shifted—there won’t be blind, straight-line upside anymore. Going forward, we’ll need to watch whether orders and “Li Run” can be realized.

Many people are纠结 about selling too early and feeling uncomfortable. Remember: it’s not about who sold at the very top. If you can capture the gains, that’s enough. If you didn’t catch it, don’t feel resentful—most importantly, don’t rush in emotionally and get trapped around the waist.

$SNDKB #闪迪股价涨幅扩大至11% #韩股KOSPI开盘破7000点

The big pie continues falling. The highs and lows keep getting lower, and price is moving within a downward channel. The hourly M-top has broken below the neckline at 631, officially confirming the move. The FVG gap has already been filled.

The lower boundary of the channel at 625 is key support. If it breaks, look toward 618. If the channel support holds, the downside can remain controlled; a breakdown will accelerate the selloff.

Condition for a rebound: a valid breakout above 631.

There’s no clear negative news on the news front. Oil and gold are both falling together, but they haven’t been able to lift the big pie—Yiyitai is holding up better, and the market is showing divergence.

Short-term plan:
1) Conservative: If it rises with volume and holds above 630, then enter a long near 630, targeting 636–640;
2) Aggressive: If 625 breaks down on heavy volume and the subsequent rebound fails to reclaim it, then chase a short on the right-side confirmation, and strictly keep your stop/defense in place.

$BTC $ETH #以太坊基金会L1弃用Poseidon哈希 #Tapestry财报后股价跌近15% #美国30年期国债投标倍数降至2.39 #伊朗要求船只过境霍尔木兹需许可