RecodeX

📡 On-the-hour Bulletin | 01:00-02:00

1. JPMorgan maintains a long-term bullish view on gold, forecasting an average price of $4,300 per ounce in Q3 2026, rising to $4,500 in Q4, with a further recovery in 2027.

2. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost external power for the 21st time. Emergency diesel generators have started running. Power has been restored, but one transmission line remains unusable.

3. Canada’s pension fund CPP Investments will invest $1.75 billion to support Yintuo’s AI infrastructure buildout, planning to develop over 10 gigawatts of data centers.

4. ECB President Lagarde will personally attend next week’s EU finance ministers’ meeting rather than being represented by the vice president—an action that is quite rare.

5. Bitcoin rebounded from $58,000 to around $62,000. ETF inflows have returned, and net purchases of bitcoin by listed companies reached 166,984 coins—double the output from mined production.

6. UK prime minister candidate Burnham confirmed that there will be no early election. He will negotiate a more “ambitious” agreement with the EU and is also willing to hold talks with the Taliban to deport Afghan nationals seeking asylum.

7. The Argentine government announced the abolition of the Ministry of the Interior, with its functions transferred to the Office of the Chief of the Cabinet, and has created two positions for deputy cabinet ministers.

8. The WHO says the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still spreading. The number of new cases each week has reached the highest level since the outbreak began, and the situation is grave.

📡 Hourly Update | 00:00-01:00

1. The global investment and financing market remains hot. AI and hard-tech fields continue to attract massive capital; companies such as Quantum Systems, ElevenLabs, and Crusoe received large rounds of funding. Conglomerates including South Korea’s Samsung and SK Group have announced investment in physical AI industry clusters at the scale of hundreds of billions of won.

2. ECB Governing Council member Nagel stressed the need to stay alert to inflation risks and maintain policy flexibility. Germany’s 2027 budget draft shows new borrowing exceeding €203 billion, with defense spending rising sharply.

3. Fitch Ratings warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses risks to global businesses. Trump and Netanyahu spoke by phone and agreed to hold a meeting soon. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant lost external power supply for the 21st time.

4. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. In the past 24 hours, the entire market saw liquidations totaling $174 million. Bitcoin’s rebound needs to break through the $72,000 resistance level. Strategy’s unrealized losses narrowed to $11.5 billion.

5. Anthropic launched the Claude Science platform for scientists and plans to take the lead in AI chip R&D. Alibaba has banned employees from using Claude Code, after previously accusing it of conducting model distillation attacks.

6. UK Bank of England Governor Bailey said that if a war involving Iran had not broken out, the UK’s inflation rate would have already met the target; current inflation is 2.8%, and the government will work to bring it down.

7. A surge in storage chip prices has triggered a class action lawsuit by US consumers. The lawsuit alleges that Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron drove prices up by roughly 700% since 2022 by cutting DRAM production capacity.

8. Typhoon “Maysak” has made landfall in Hainan. It is expected to move into the Beibu Gulf in the early hours of the 4th. Guangxi will see strong winds and heavy rain, and the weather disaster emergency response has been raised to Level III.

📡 Hourly News Report | 23:00-00:00

1. OPEC: June oil production daily output surged by 2.34 million barrels to 18.75 million barrels. Increases were notable in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, but they still remain far below pre-war levels.

2. Allianz chief economist warns the U.S. Federal Reserve may have to raise rates in September, as the inflation rate is expected to peak at above 3.7%, with support from AI and fiscal stimulus.

3. Yemen’s Houthi forces claim to have intercepted a Saudi fighter jet, warning that if Saudi launches further attacks, it will target its airports and other key interests.

4. China’s AI industry is at a turning point. ByteDance, Alibaba, and Baidu have shifted to domestic chips, and domestic GPUs’ share in new deployments has risen to 41%.

5. Bitcoin hits $62,300, a nine-day high, buoyed by global stock markets reaching record highs.

6. Major European stock indices closed higher across the board: Germany’s DAX 30 rose 0.90%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.25%.

7. The Prime Minister’s Office of Israel denies reports of plans to assassinate Iran negotiation representatives, calling it “false news.”

8. Domestic futures trade at night saw more gain than loss: asphalt rose by nearly 3%, synthetic rubber rose by more than 2%, while liquefied petroleum gas fell by more than 1%.

📡 Daily News Briefing Overview | July 03

Over the past 24 hours, global markets sharply diverged under the dual shock of the “surprise NFP” and rising geopolitical tensions. U.S. June nonfarm payrolls came in far below expectations, adding only 57,000 jobs. Markets quickly scaled back expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes; the U.S. dollar weakened, gold surged straight through $4,180 per ounce, and Bitcoin reclaimed $62,000. However, China’s A-share technology stocks suffered panic selling after a misinterpretation of Meta’s AI compute-power sale as “oversupply of compute,” with the STAR 50 index plunging 7.7%—in stark contrast to the strength of safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz passage fees remains unresolved, the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates, and domestic financial regulation has been tightened abruptly (with several institutions being taken over and others failing), leading to heavy risk-avoidance sentiment and a clear divergence in asset prices.

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📊 Global Macros

1. Surprise NFP print triggers plunge in rate-hike expectations: U.S. June nonfarm employment added only 57,000 people, far below the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2%. Markets cut the probability of a July rate hike by the Fed from 29% to 18%. Multiple institutions maintained “no hikes, no cuts” guidance for the rest of the year. The U.S. dollar index fell more than 0.4% to 100.89.

2. Gold and U.S. Treasuries attract strong demand: Spot gold rose more than 2.3% to $4,123 per ounce, then broke above $4,180, setting a recent high. The total assets under U.S. money market funds hit an all-time high of $795 billion, reflecting intense risk-averse sentiment.

3. Europe stocks hit new highs; economic data proves resilient: The eurozone’s unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in May, and the June final composite PMI was 50, indicating the pace of contraction slowed. Both the STOXX 600 Index and the eurozone STOXX 50 Index reached record closing highs. The FTSE 100 rose 1.67%.

4. Domestic easing tone continues: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) net injected 50 billion yuan via open-market treasury bond operations in June. Net injections via 7-day reverse repos totaled 582.6 billion yuan. It also announced that on July 6 it will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan term buyout-style reverse repo to keep banking-system liquidity ample.

5. Refined oil prices record the biggest intrayear drop: Refined oil prices were cut by 950 yuan per ton and 915 yuan per ton starting at 24:00. Filling a private car’s tank will cost about 40 yuan less, reflecting expectations of a slowdown in global demand.

6. Japanese government bond yields surge: The yield on Japan’s 10-year JGB climbed to 2.81%, the highest since 1996, as market expectations for the Bank of Japan’s normalization of monetary policy warmed.

💰 Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin back above $62,000; ETF inflows return: Boosted by weak NFP data and cooling rate-hike expectations, Bitcoin rose more than 2.5% to break through $62,000, while Ether returned to above $1,700. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a streak of ten consecutive days of net outflows, with yesterday’s net inflow reaching $223.5 million, signaling improving investor sentiment.

2. Market sentiment still in a panic zone: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 22, indicating extreme fear. Analysts believe BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL have generated buy signals, and the market may already be oversold.

3. Institutions accelerate positioning: Standard Chartered Bank partnered with Circle to launch bank-led USDC minting and redemption services. Crypto payments startup Mesh raised funding led by Binance, with a valuation of about $2 billion. On-chain perpetual futures platform Extended completed $12.5 million in strategic financing.

4. Regulatory and compliance updates: OFAC added 134 crypto wallet addresses linked to ISIS-K to its sanctions list, and Tether has frozen related funds. Citigroup lowered Strategy’s target price from $260 to $136 while maintaining a “Buy” rating.

🤖 AI and Technology

1. A-share tech stocks hit by a “compute oversupply” misread: The STAR 50 index plunged 7.7%, with semiconductors and compute-hardware sectors leading the decline. The market misinterpreted Meta’s sale of idle GPU compute as “compute oversupply.” Insiders clarified that it is actually a mature AI infrastructure business model; Lenovo executives said long-term demand still has enormous room.

2. Kuaishou’s KeLing AI sets a global video foundation model funding record: Kuaishou’s AI video generation model, KeLing, completed nearly $3 billion in financing. Post-investment valuation is about $18 billion, setting the largest global funding record for video foundation model companies.

3. Microsoft and Meta step up AI deployments: Microsoft formed a new 6,000-person department to help businesses deploy AI and plans to merge Copilot for consumers and enterprises into a single unified application. Meta is considering partnering with Samsung to produce customized AI chips worth 100 trillion won, using a 2-nanometer process.

4. New breakthroughs from Anthropic and Alibaba’s DAMO Academy: Anthropic launched early development of its own AI chips and is in talks with Samsung regarding 2-nanometer manufacturing processes. Alibaba’s DAMO Academy released its first AI agent for superconducting materials—Elements Claw—predicting 68,000 superconducting materials.

5. Yushu Technology’s Science and Technology Innovation Board IPO approved: The CSRC approved Yushu Technology’s IPO registration on the STAR Market. It took only 73 days from acceptance to meeting, setting the fastest STAR Market review record, lifting A-share humanoid robot concept stocks across the board.

🌍 Geopolitics

1. The Hormuz Strait standoff persists: Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over passage-fee issues have yielded no results. The U.S. proposed freezing tens of billions of dollars in assets in exchange for Iran giving up charging fees, but Iran refused to compromise. Iran’s speaker said the strait should be jointly managed by Iran and Oman, raising global concerns about oil shipping. Saudi Arabia’s four supertankers loaded about 8 million barrels of crude oil and sailed out of the strait.

2. Escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Russian forces launched large-scale retaliatory strikes on Kyiv and other areas, killing 27 people and injuring 91. Ukraine said it was hit strikes on the Russian Air Force base in Crimea, with at least seven aircraft destroyed. NATO pledged to provide €70 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2026.

3. Iran’s nuclear facilities damaged: Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered severe damage, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has not yet been approved to conduct inspections. A vice-chairman of the Russian Federal Security Council

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📡 8-hour recap | July 03 16:00-24:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets showed a mixed picture: China A-shares edged higher in a choppy session, while the robotics theme surged. European equities hit record highs, but a surprise drop in U.S. nonfarm data sparked a rebound in gold. In China, financial regulation tightened: Wuhan Zhongbang Bank was taken over, and CITIC Trust went bankrupt. Geopolitical tensions remained high; issues involving Iran’s nuclear facilities and the dispute over the Strait of Hormuz further heightened market uncertainty.

Macroeconomy

1. The eurozone’s June composite PMI final reading was 50; the services PMI final reading was 49.4—both above expectations. The pace of contraction slowed, and inflationary pressure cooled.

2. U.S. June nonfarm employment data came in unexpectedly weak. Market expectations for further Federal Reserve rate hikes cooled. Spot gold rose during the day, and Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold T+D early in the evening session jumped 2.61%.

3. The People’s Bank of China announced it would conduct a CNY 1 trillion (10,000亿元) “buyout-style” reverse repo operation on July 6, with a 3-month term, to keep ample liquidity in the banking system.

4. The State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan” for building a Beautiful China. It calls for comprehensive improvement in ecological and environmental quality by 2030 and lays out 7 key tasks, including carbon reduction and pollution abatement.

5. China’s refined oil price was cut starting from 24:00, lowering by RMB 950 and RMB 915 per ton respectively, marking the largest single cut so far this year.

Crypto Market

1. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF daily inflows exceeded USD 200 million. Bitcoin rebounded to above USD 61,000, but BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF saw net outflows for 10 straight trading days.

2. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows of 588 BTC, while Ethereum ETFs saw net inflows of 6,105 ETH—sentiment remained split.

3. Citigroup cut Strategy’s target price from USD 260 to USD 136, while maintaining a “Buy” rating.

AI Technology

1. Market news said Meta is considering partnering with Samsung to produce customized AI chips worth 100 trillion won, using a 2-nanometer process.

2. A JPMorgan report showed that in June, demand for large-model calls and API spending strengthened. AI infrastructure needs expanded, and unit economics improved for model providers.

3. The Ministry of Transport emphasized implementing the “AI + transport” initiative in depth and accelerating the improvement of development and governance systems.

4. The National Radio and Television Administration released results from June’s “AI video remix/modification” governance: nearly 7,600 non-compliant videos were cleared, and more than 20违规 accounts were handled.

Geopolitics

1. Dmitry Medvedev, Vice Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, said Finland has become a target for Russian nuclear strikes after lifting its ban on nuclear weapons deployment. Iran’s nuclear facilities were severely damaged, and the IAEA has not yet been authorized to enter for inspections.

2. Iran’s Speaker of the Parliament, Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf, said the Strait of Hormuz should be jointly managed by Iran and Oman, raising global concerns about oil shipping.

3. A NATO Ankara Summit statement noted that Russia poses a “long-term threat” to Europe–Atlantic security. Allies pledged to provide EUR 70 billion in military assistance to Ukraine in 2026.

4. Ukraine said it struck a Russian air force base in Crimea, destroying at least seven aircraft. The Bulgarian prime minister said Bulgaria would reserve its view on the EU’s 21st round of sanctions against Russia.

Financial Regulation and Market

1. The National Financial Regulatory Administration decided to place Wuhan Zhongbang Bank, which had serious credit risks, under receivership for one year. Hankou Bank will take over related businesses.

2. The Financial Regulatory Bureau of Heilongjiang agreed that CITIC Trust enter bankruptcy proceedings in accordance with the law, requiring strict compliance with relevant laws and regulations for follow-up work.

3. The China Securities Regulatory Commission solicited public comments on improving rules for listed companies’ refinancing. It plans to establish a shelf-offering system for targeted share placements, and raise the cap for small, fast financing to RMB 600 million.

4. Bank of America data showed that, as of the week ending July 1, U.S. stock funds saw net outflows of USD 17.2 billion—marking the first net outflow in three months.

Market sentiment and key focus: Sentiment remained divided. Weak nonfarm data supported gold and crypto, but tighter financial regulation and heightened geopolitical risks suppressed risk appetite. Investors are watching next week’s nonfarm revised data and developments in the Strait of Hormuz situation.

📡 On-the-hour Update | 22:00-23:00

1. US antitrust authorities are closely monitoring the oil market for any signs of price manipulation and urging states to assist with the investigation. Meanwhile, OPEC’s June crude oil output increased significantly by 2.34 million barrels per day due to restored exports from members in the Persian Gulf.

2. BlackRock recorded 10 consecutive days of net outflows totaling 35,980 BTC, indicating notable institutional selling pressure. At the same time, US Bitcoin ETFs saw net outflows of 588 BTC; Ethereum ETFs had net inflows of 6,105 ETH, with market sentiment splitting.

3. The European Commission has proposed five major cross-border defense projects, including drones and wing-edge early-warning capabilities. The initiatives have already secured a €325 million budget and may receive additional funding.

4. Germany’s automotive parts manufacturer Continental Group is close to selling Continental Teves to Lone Star Funds for about €4 billion, with the stock price rising 2%.

5. Guizhou Province has released a plan to upgrade the strategy from “selling liquor” to “selling a lifestyle,” supporting Moutai’s Gucheng to be developed to 5A scenic area standards and launching a three-year action plan to expand liquor exports overseas.

6. A malfunction in the customs system in the Democratic Republic of the Congo may prevent major cobalt producers from completing their first-half export quotas, potentially affecting up to about 20,000 tons of cobalt exports, worth roughly $1.1 billion.

7. A former White House adviser said the Trump administration will not establish an AI approval and regulatory body, opposing burdensome bureaucratic oversight. However, earlier it forced Anthropic to withdraw its model and delayed OpenAI’s release.

8. ECB President Lagarde has not ruled out the possibility of leaving early to enter French politics. At the same time, French economists believe the Federal Reserve still needs to raise rates, while the ECB may already have completed tightening.

📡 Hourly Update | 21:00-22:00

1. Iran’s Speaker Qalibaf said the Strait of Hormuz should be jointly managed by Iran and Oman, raising global concerns about oil shipping.

2. Oil export volumes in the Gulf region surged in June to more than 10 million barrels per day. The UAE’s crude oil pipeline throughput hit a record high, but it still remains 40% below pre-war levels.

3. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of over $200 million in a single day. Bitcoin rebounded to above $61,000, but BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF recorded net outflows for 10 consecutive trading days.

4. The National Financial Regulatory Administration has approved the bankruptcy of Rongrong International Trust Co., Ltd., and, in accordance with the law, placed Wuhan Zhongbang Bank under receivership, with Hankou Bank taking over the relevant assets.

5. Global central banks net bought 41 tons of gold in May. Poland remained the largest buyer, and despite a sharp drop in gold prices, the reserve-building trend has not changed.

6. A NATO summit statement shows that member states have committed to providing €70 billion in military assistance to Ukraine by 2026, reaffirming the commitment to collective defense.

7. The Indian government is investigating a data leak incident involving an Apple supplier, Tata Electronics. The leaked files include photos of an unreleased iPhone 18 Pro model.

8. At the start of the night session, domestic futures contracts were mostly up rather than down. Shanghai silver and Shanghai tin rose more than 1%, but afterward Shanghai silver fell 5.41% and crude oil fell 2.27%.

📡 Hourly News Bulletin | 20:00-21:00

1. US June nonfarm payrolls came in unexpectedly, cooling market expectations for more Federal Reserve rate hikes. Spot gold prices rose during the day, and Shanghai Gold Exchange Gold T+D rose 2.61% at the start of the evening session.

2. Domestic sales of electric motorcycles have been booming since the start of this year. From January to May, total sales increased 5.2% year over year, export value grew 28.4% year over year, and production and sales have both been strong.

3. Nvidia holds a dominant position in the ASIC market, but competitors such as Marvell are gradually eroding Broadcom’s market share, signaling changes in the semiconductor competitive landscape.

4. The National Film Administration and the State Administration for Market Regulation jointly issued a notice encouraging cinemas to introduce AI intelligent agents, video gaming and other formats to create comprehensive cultural experience spaces.

5. A statement from NATO’s Ankara Summit said Russia poses a “long-term threat” to European-Atlantic security. Leaders will announce that European member states and Canada will assume more defense responsibilities.

6. The State Post Bureau visited the headquarters of five express delivery companies, including ZTO and YTO, emphasizing the need to deepen governance of “involutionary” competition and resist low-quality, low-price practices.

7. Iran has begun negotiations with regard to selling oil to Japanese companies. Potential buyers hope to obtain a longer US sanctions exemption period.

8. The China Securities Regulatory Commission and Singapore’s Monetary Authority held the 10th China–Singapore securities and futures regulatory roundtable to discuss cross-border regulatory cooperation and the development of capital markets.

📡 Hourly Report | 19:00-20:00

1. The China Securities Regulatory Commission has solicited public comments on improving rules for listed companies’ refinancing. It plans to establish a shelf offering system for private placement, raise the cap for small, fast financing to RMB 600 million, and implement a unified market-price-based pricing mechanism.

2. The National Financial Regulatory Administration has decided to place Wuhan Zhongbang Bank under receivership for one year, with all principal and interest on individual deposits fully protected.

3. The Heilongjiang Financial Regulatory Bureau has approved Fosun Trust’s entry into bankruptcy proceedings in accordance with the law, and requires that subsequent work be carried out strictly in line with relevant laws and regulations.

4. EVE Energy plans to reduce its holdings of no more than 3.5% of Smart More International shares, aiming to optimize its asset structure and meet funding needs for R&D investments.

5. The Ministry of Transport emphasized deep implementation of the “AI + Transportation” initiative, accelerating the improvement of development and governance systems, and maintaining a firm bottom line on safety.

6. Pinde Holdings plans to raise funds via a private placement of shares of no more than RMB 9.6 billion, to be used for Qingding AI server and high-density interconnect multilayer boards for high-speed optical modules projects.

7. Bank of China has restarted 5-year large-denomination time deposits with an annualized interest rate of 1.60%. Analysts view this as a differentiated deposit-attraction strategy rather than an industry-wide trend reversal.

8. UK new car sales in June rose 14.9% year over year. Tesla’s sales increased 42% year over year, while BYD’s sales grew 9.01% year over year.

📡 Hourly News Update | 18:00-19:00

1. Jiangbo Long is expected to see first-half net profit grow by more than 620 times year-on-year, reaching RMB 9.2 billion to 11 billion, driven by strong demand for storage chips and joint optimization technology with AMD.

2. The People’s Bank of China and two other departments issued the “Interim Measures for Cybersecurity Management in the Financial Sector (Draft for Comment),” emphasizing focused protection for critical information infrastructure to prevent cybersecurity risks from evolving into financial risks.

3. A report by JPMorgan Chase shows that in June, the volume of large-model calls and API spending strengthened; demand for AI infrastructure expanded, and unit economics for model providers improved.

4. Tech Data Port (China) expects first-half net profit to increase 176%-193% year-on-year, as demand remains strong in areas such as artificial intelligence and data centers, while memory prices continue rising.

5. Samsung announced that it will invest about 600 trillion won in the Yeongnam region of South Korea to build a physical AI industrial cluster, including humanoid robots, solid-state batteries, and AI server packaging substrates.

6. Cathay Highton expects first-half net profit to grow 27%-30% year-on-year; second-quarter net profit is projected to surge 290%-304% year-on-year, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 113%-121%.

7. Ukraine says it attacked a Russian Air Force base in Crimea, destroying at least seven fighter jets; Bulgaria’s prime minister said it will reserve its position on the EU’s 21st round of sanctions against Russia.

8. Typhoon Maysak (No. 10) made landfall in Lingshui, Hainan. It is the first typhoon to land in China this year. The Ministry of Emergency Management has launched a level-IV emergency response for geological disasters.

📡 On-the-hour News Report | 17:00-18:00

1. The State Council issued the “15th Five-Year Plan” for building a Beautiful China. It sets out that by 2030, the overall quality of the ecological environment will be comprehensively improved, and it lays out seven key tasks, including carbon reduction and pollution control.

2. The People’s Bank of China announced that on July 6 it will conduct CNY 1 trillion in buyout-style reverse repo operations with a term of three months to keep liquidity sufficiently abundant in the banking system.

3. Three government departments announced that, starting from January 1, 2027, preferential tax policies for energy-saving vehicles and new-energy commercial vehicles will be abolished. Pure electric passenger vehicles will still not be taxed.

4. The National Financial Regulatory Administration decided to place Wuhan Zhongbang Bank, which has experienced serious credit risks, under receivership for one year. Bank of Hankou will take over the relevant businesses.

5. Data from Bank of America shows that, as of the week ending July 1, US stock funds recorded net outflows of USD 17.2 billion, the first instance of net outflows in three months.

6. The Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited plans to launch five-year China government bond futures on August 3, 2026.

7. The Russian Ministry of Finance announced that between July 7 and August 6, the daily scale of foreign exchange purchases will be reduced to 5.4 billion rubles, down from 9.9 billion rubles previously.

8. The National Medical Products Administration proposes to include qualified cell and gene therapy drugs in the 30-day fast-track for review and approval of innovative drug clinical trials.

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 16:00-17:00

1. Final Eurozone composite PMI for June came in at 50, and the final services PMI at 49.4—both higher than expected. The pace of contraction is slowing, and inflation pressures are cooling.

2. Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, said that after Finland lifted its ban on nuclear weapons deployment, it has become a target for Russia’s nuclear strikes. Iran’s nuclear facilities were severely damaged, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has not yet been approved to enter for verification.

3. At the close of trading in Hong Kong stocks, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.28%. The robotics sector surged across the board: LIFO Harmonic rose 44.95%, and Eston rose 33.09%.

4. Market news says Meta is considering partnering with Samsung to produce custom AI chips worth 100 trillion Korean won, using a 2-nanometer process.

5. According to preliminary figures from the China Passenger Car Association, in June the national retail sales of passenger vehicles were 1.651 million units, down 21% year-on-year; retail sales of new energy vehicles were 1.037 million units, down 7% year-on-year.

6. Hangdian Co., Ltd. expects that in the first half of 2026 its net profit will increase by 852%–958% year-on-year, mainly because the fiber optic cable market has rebounded, with both volume and price rising.

7. The UK’s final services PMI for June was 48.8, contracting for the second consecutive month and marking the largest drop since early 2023, affected by the Iran war.

8. The Hong Kong Exchanges and Clearing Limited announced that its derivatives exchange has reached a data cooperation agreement with the ChinaBond Pricing Center, supporting the launch of five-year China government bond futures on August 3.

📡 Hourly News Broadcast | 15:00-16:00

1. China’s refined oil prices will be cut by 950 yuan and 915 yuan per ton starting at 24:00. This marks the largest single cut this year. Filling a 50-liter tank of 92-octane gasoline can save about 37.5 yuan.

2. China’s three major stock indexes fluctuated throughout the day. The Shanghai Composite rose 0.37%, the Shenzhen Component gained 0.64%, and the ChiNext Index increased 0.07%. Shares related to robots surged, with a wave of daily limit-up moves; more than 40 stocks hit their limit.

3. Commodity futures finished mixed, with more gains than declines. Silver on the Shanghai exchange rose more than 4%. Palladium, the European shipping line (container freight) and platinum each rose over 3%. Shanghai gold climbed more than 2%, while aluminum oxide and iron ore fell by more than 1%.

4. European stocks opened higher across the board. Germany’s DAX 30 and the STOXX 600 index both set intraday record highs. Chip stocks such as ASML rose 2%–2.5%.

5. Spain’s June services PMI rose to 54.2, reaching a new high for 2026 and well above expectations of 50.9, indicating a rebound driven by strong domestic demand.

6. Samsung’s 4nm wafer foundry capacity is basically sold out. Some 8nm production is operating at full capacity. The company has started selectively taking orders, and certain process technologies have seen price increases of 15%–20%.

7. South Korea announced plans to push companies to invest more than 312 trillion KRW in the country’s southeast. Priority areas include semiconductors, AI, and the aerospace industry, with SK Group, Samsung, and others participating.

8. The National Radio and Television Administration released the June results of its “AI tampering” video governance campaign. Nearly 7,600 noncompliant videos were removed, and more than 20 accounts were dealt with for violations.

📡 8-hour recap | July 03 08:00-16:00

In the past 8 hours, U.S. June non-farm payrolls came in far below expectations (adding 57,000 jobs). The market pared back rate-hike expectations, the U.S. dollar softened, and gold broke through $4,180 per ounce. However, the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2%, sparking discussion about economic resilience. After wild volatility, South Korea’s equities rebounded strongly: the KOSPI index closed up 5.76%, boosted by Samsung DRAM price increases and an AI investment plan. In China A-shares, trading fluctuated upward, led by sectors such as robots and memory chips. Ashiots Technology’s STAR Market IPO approval became a key focus for the market.

Macroeconomy

1. In the U.S., June non-farm employment added 57,000, well below expectations. The unemployment rate fell to 4.2%. The market adjusted down rate-hike expectations, and multiple institutions maintained the view that the Fed will not hike or cut rates this year.

2. Japan’s 10-year government bond yield rose to 2.81%, the highest since 1996, reflecting expectations of a normalization of the Bank of Japan’s monetary policy.

3. The EU plans to introduce a ban on social media for minors. Von der Leyen plans to release the proposal in September. Member states differ on age thresholds and whether parental consent is required.

4. Vietnam’s GDP grew 8.39% year over year in Q2. Export growth was 28.1% in the first half, while foreign direct investment increased 11.2% year over year.

5. The National Development and Reform Commission said that this year’s 200 billion yuan of ultra-long special sovereign bonds supporting “two new” equipment upgrades have all been allocated.

Crypto market

1. Bitcoin spot ETFs ended a streak of ten consecutive days of net outflows. Yesterday recorded net inflows of $223.5 million, indicating a recovery in investor sentiment.

2. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 22, indicating extreme fear. The market may have already been oversold.

3. On-chain perpetual futures trading platform Extended completed a strategic financing round of $12.5 million, led by eToro.

AI technology

1. Kuaishou’s Lingyi AI (可灵AI) completed an initial funding round of nearly $3 billion. Post-money valuation is $18 billion, setting a global record for the largest financing round among video foundation model companies.

2. Alibaba’s DAMO Academy and others jointly released the first AI agent for superconducting material discovery, Elements Claw, predicting 68,000 superconducting materials, of which 4 have already been validated by experiments.

3. Due to risks of planted backdoors after deployment, Alibaba has fully banned internal employees from using Claude Code starting July 10, recommending Qoder as a replacement.

4. The South Korean government announced it will increase its AI budget to 9.9 trillion won. It plans to build 8.4 GW of data center capacity by 2029, aiming for the number one position globally in physical AI by 2030.

5. The China Securities Regulatory Commission approved the registration for Ashiots Technology’s STAR Market IPO. From acceptance to review and approval took only 73 days—setting the fastest record for STAR Market review—and lifted A-share humanoid robot concept stocks across the board.

Geopolitics

1. A plan by U.S. Defense Secretary Hegseth to significantly cut deployments of troops stationed across Europe and the U.S. was rejected. It will instead conduct a deployment posture assessment for up to six months.

2. The death toll from the Venezuela earthquake rose to 2,595. The vice president announced the establishment of a $200 million reconstruction fund together with the International Monetary Fund.

3. China called at the UN Security Council for all sides to avoid actions that could further intensify tensions in the Middle East, in response to the recent escalation of military standoffs between the U.S. and Iran.

Market sentiment summary: Market sentiment is diverging. Weak non-farm payrolls data eased concerns about further rate hikes, but signals of economic slowing triggered discussion about the quality of growth. Tech stocks rebounded on expectations of AI investment and higher memory chip prices, but geopolitical risks and uncertainty in inflation remain sources of pressure.

📡 Hourly Broadcast | 14:00-15:00

1. The South Korean government announced it will increase its AI budget to 99 trillion KRW. It plans to build 8.4 GW of data center capacity by 2029, aiming to rank No. 1 globally in the physical AI sector by 2030.

2. The Securities and Exchange Commission approved the registration for Unitree Technology’s STAR Market IPO. “The first A-share humanoid robot stock” is about to hit the market, driving big rallies in concept stocks such as Qoder/InfiniWave.

3. Due to potential backdoor security risks after implantation, Alibaba has fully banned internal employees from using Claude Code starting July 10, recommending Qoder as a substitute.

4. The Korean KOSPI rebounded today and closed up 5.76%. Samsung Electronics rose 8.22% and SK Hynix gained 10.88%, after falling nearly 10% over the prior two days.

5. The National Development and Reform Commission issued the “14th Five-Year Plan for the Development of the Circular Economy (15th Five-Year Period)” [sic], targeting that by 2030, the output value of the resource-recycling industry will reach 8 trillion yuan.

6. In the U.S., June non-farm payrolls added 57,000 jobs—far below expectations. Institutions believe this will ease pressure for the Federal Reserve to raise rates, and the U.S. dollar remains weak.

7. Zhaoyi Innovation and Desay SV have reached a strategic cooperation agreement to jointly advance the industrialization and rollout of domestic automotive-grade chips, deepening collaboration on storage and MCU product lines.

8. In May, Chinese automakers’ sales in the European market first surpassed Japan. The five Chinese automakers together sold nearly 140,000 vehicles, up 65% year over year.

📡 Top-of-the-hour News | 13:00-14:00

1. China A-shares continued to strengthen after noon. The Shanghai Composite rose more than 1%, while the Shenzhen Component and the ChiNext Index gained more than 2%. Sectors such as robotics, memory chips, and AI computing hardware led the advance, with over 3,400 stocks rising.

2. South Korea’s KOSPI surged by more than 6%. Samsung Electronics and SK hynix rose by more than 9% each, boosted by rumors of cooperation involving Anthropic and expectations of higher DRAM prices.

3. Samsung Electronics plans to raise DRAM prices by up to 20% in the third quarter. With tight supply and demand in the memory-chip industry, TrendForce expects the shortage to persist.

4. A-share robotics-related stocks saw a broad surge: more than 40 stocks hit the daily limit. The move was catalyzed by news that Unitree Technology’s Science and Technology Innovation Board IPO has been approved, lifting expectations for valuations across the industrial chain.

5. In China, Infintech (EVO) filed six patent countersuits in multiple locations, accusing DJI of infringing patents related to panoramic cameras and gimbal devices, covering key technologies such as panoramic shooting and bullet-time.

6. Citigroup expects that as the crisis in the Strait of Hormuz eases, Brent crude could fall to as low as $60 per barrel by year-end, intensifying market pessimism.

7. The South Korean government plans to expand AI data center construction. By 2029, it aims to complete capacity of 8.4 gigawatts, and to advance development of homegrown AI foundational models. This year’s AI budget has increased to 99 trillion won.

8. ECB President Lagarde hinted that she may take part in next year’s French presidential election, saying, “In the French presidential election, there should be a European voice.”

📡 Hourly News Update | 12:00-13:00

1. The intraday increase in the Korea KOSPI index widened to 5.5%. Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix both rose more than 9%, driven by a rebound in technology stocks.

2. The World Meteorological Organization warned that El Niño will rapidly strengthen into a strong El Niño event, expected to increase the risk of global heatwaves, droughts, and heavy rainfall.

3. Bitcoin spot ETFs ended 10 consecutive days of net outflows. Yesterday recorded net inflows of USD 223.5 million, indicating improving investor sentiment.

4. At the Hong Kong midday close, the Hang Seng Index rose 1.57%. Gold-related stocks surged across the board: Zijin Mining’s ? (Chifeng Gold) rose more than 16%, while technology stocks led the rebound.

5. A magnitude-6.4 earthquake struck the near-northwest waters of Miyakojima in Japan. The epicenter was extremely shallow, and no tsunami warning was issued.

6. Samsung and SK Hynix asked PCB/IC substrate makers to cut their quotes, planning to withdraw an expected Q1 price increase of about 3%-4%.

7. The Crypto Fear and Greed Index fell to 22, in a state of extreme fear. The market may already be oversold.

8. Ningbo Huaxiang announced that its quadruped robots have begun mass production and deliveries. Fully self-developed PEEK-based joint modules have been applied across the stack.

📡 Hourly Update | 11:00-12:00

1. In early trading, China’s three major A-share indexes all closed higher: the Shanghai Composite rose 0.69%, the ChiNext Board gained 1.58%, robot-related stocks surged to the daily limit in a wave, and the precious metals sector remained strong.

2. Alibaba’s DAMO Academy, together with partners, released the first AI intelligence agent for superconducting material discovery—Elements Claw—predicting 68,000 superconducting materials, including 4 already experimentally verified.

3. The People’s Bank of China announced net issuance of 10 billion yuan via open market treasury bond buy/sell operations in June. For the first six months, net issuance totaled 300 billion yuan. At the same time, net issuance via the MLF reached 200 billion yuan, and net issuance via the 7-day reverse repo stood at 582.6 billion yuan.

4. US June nonfarm payroll data came in far below expectations, weakening rate-hike bets. The US dollar softened, copper prices and industrial metals rose together, and gold rebounded strongly from near the lows.

5. In May, China’s passenger car market share in Europe surpassed Japan for the first time. Five Chinese automakers sold 138,400 vehicles, up 65% year on year.

6. The Ministry of Education issued a notice to strictly control the total amount of summer homework, and to prohibit examinations or tests being organized indirectly under names such as “summer camps” or “study tours.”

7. Shares related to innovative drug concepts in Hong Kong continued to climb. Driven by a “rotation” of market funds from high to low and catalyzed by improving sector fundamentals at a turning point, OraKangweisheng Bio surged by more than 8%.

8. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak instructed to formulate measures to stabilize domestic fuel supply. A rush to buy increased demand by 20%-30%, and a short-term ban on diesel exports may be introduced.

📡 On-the-Hour Updates | 10:00-11:00

1. The CSRC has approved Unitree Technology’s registration for an IPO on the STAR Market. The fund-raising target is RMB 4.2 billion, driving a broad surge in A-share and Hong Kong-listed humanoid robot concept stocks. Multiple stocks hit the daily limit, including Kairong Hi-Tech and Eston.

2. The U.S. June nonfarm payrolls data came far below expectations, weakening expectations for further Fed rate hikes. The dollar may be on track for its largest weekly drop in nearly three months. Spot gold has returned to $4,100.

3. China’s three major A-share indices moved higher amid fluctuations. The ChiNext Index’s gain expanded to 2%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose more than 1%, and sectors such as humanoid robots, precious metals, and defense-related industries led the advance.

4. Vietnam’s second-quarter GDP grew 8.39% year over year. Exports rose 28.1% in the first half, and foreign direct investment increased 11.2% year over year.

5. The National Development and Reform Commission said that this year’s RMB 200 billion-plus超-long Special Treasury Bonds supporting “two new” initiatives have all been allocated, earmarked for equipment upgrades.

6. Indonesia’s benchmark stock index rose more than 2% intraday. South Korea’s KOSPI expanded its gain to 3%, and Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.7%.

7. Jewelry brands saw a sharp jump in gold jewelry prices. Chow Sang Sang quoted RMB 1,266 per gram, and Lao Feng Xiang quoted RMB 1,260 per gram—up RMB 30 from the previous day.

8. The brain-computer interface company Fassetta (Formatta) completed a RMB 420 million angel+ round financing. The robot-integrated joint module company Quanzhibo (Quanshibo) completed an A+++ round financing.

📡 Hourly News Update | 09:00-10:00

1. The CSRC has approved the registration application for Unitree Technology’s IPO on the STAR Market. From acceptance to approval for listing took only 73 days—setting the fastest record for review on the STAR Market.

2. In the US, June nonfarm payrolls added 57,000 jobs, far below expectations. The market has pushed back expectations for additional Fed rate hikes. Spot gold jumped more than 1.4% to break above $4,180 per ounce.

3. Kuaishou’s Lingxi AI has completed its first round of financing of nearly $3 billion, with a post-investment valuation of $18 billion—establishing the largest single financing record globally for video AI model companies.

4. South Korea’s KOSPI index fell more than 3.5% at the open, then rebounded strongly, ultimately rising more than 2% to above 7,800 points. Samsung Electronics surged more than 5%.

5. The central bank carried out a reverse repo operation worth RMB 63 billion with a 7-day term at an interest rate of 1.4%. Net funds withdrawn that day were RMB 168.5 billion, and the all-accounts net funds withdrawn for the week totaled RMB 158.7 billion.

6. The three major Hang Seng Indexes opened higher. The Hang Seng Index rose 0.81%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 0.76%, with gold stocks and internet/tech stocks leading gains.

7. The death toll from an earthquake in Venezuela has risen to 2,595. In the state of La Guaira, nearly all officials were killed. Acting President announced the establishment of a $200 million reconstruction fund in collaboration with the International Monetary Fund.

8. Japan’s Finance Minister Akiya Katayama stated that Japan is prepared to take appropriate measures in response to exchange-rate fluctuations. The yen has broken through the 161 level against the US dollar.