RecodeX

📡 Hourly News Update | 15:00-16:00

1. Iran’s offshore floating storage oil stockpiles are piling up, and it is seeking to sell oil to Japanese companies. Potential buyers are asking for longer exemption periods and guarantees for vessel safety.

2. The Hundred Persons’ Assembly of China’s humanoid robots, together with the China Machinery Industry Federation, has jointly proposed an initiative to standardize and guide the development of humanoid robots for emotional companionship, emphasizing technology for good, privacy protection, and safety management.

3. Micron Technology plans to invest $9 billion to expand its chip factory in Japan to increase AI memory production capacity, with production expected to start in 2028.

4. The premium for Bitcoin ETFs has turned negative. Analysts predict that Bitcoin may first drop to $46,000 before rebounding to $65,000, and that risks should be watched in the near term.

5. Typhoon “Maysak” is expected to land again in Guangxi tonight. The National Flood Control and Drought Relief headquarters has initiated a Level IV emergency response, deploying flood and typhoon prevention work for key areas.

6. CATL and Beijing Green Exchange, among others, have signed a strategic cooperation agreement to collaborate on developing carbon-emission-reduction methodologies and innovating green finance for supply chains.

7. Russia says it has taken control of the key town of Konstantinovka in the Donetsk region, but the Ukrainian military denies this, stating that the settlement is still under Ukrainian forces’ control.

8. This year, the Baiyun Airport port of Guangzhou has handled more than 3.9 million entry and exit trips by foreign nationals, up 34% year-on-year. Its share has exceeded 40%, setting a new record high.

📡 8-Hour Review | Jul 04, 08:00-16:00

Over the past 8 hours, market focus has centered on the acceleration of capital capitalization in commercial space and embodied intelligence, the ongoing persistent tensions in the Middle East and regional geopolitics, and increased volatility in the cryptocurrency market driven by ETF fund flows and whale activity. Meanwhile, financing in the AI sector remains active: Kuaishou’s Keling AI completed a $3.0 billion round of financing; Samsung plans to raise DRAM prices significantly; and evidence shows that both hardware and software investment enthusiasm in display technology remains strong.

Macroeconomy

1. The National Meteorological Center issued three warnings for heavy rain, typhoons, and strong convection. Areas including Guangxi and Guangdong need to prepare for extreme rainfall; on the Jingha line, some trains have been delayed due to excessive precipitation.

2. Germany’s draft budget for 2027 plans to add more than €203 billion in new borrowing, with defense spending increasing to €130.1 billion, to respond to economic weakness and geopolitical risks.

3. PJM, the largest power grid operator in the United States, triggered a second-level energy emergency alert under extreme heat and transmission overloads. In North Virginia, spot electricity prices broke above $2,500 per MWh.

4. In the first half of the year, the issuance scale of perpetual (two-year) bonds by commercial banks exceeded RMB 1 trillion. State-owned large banks and joint-stock banks were the main forces, while smaller banks issued more slowly and at higher interest rates.

5. Three departments including the Ministry of Finance announced that starting in 2027, they will取消 eliminate tax incentives for energy-saving and new-energy vehicles and vessels. Experts suggest shifting toward a mileage-based differential road usage fee system.

Crypto Market

1. After Bitcoin broke above $61,000 and moved close to $65,000, three bullish signals appeared, but the sustainability of the rally remains uncertain. On July 3, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $221.7 million, ending the previous 10 consecutive days of outflows.

2. Whale Chun Wang deposited 9,876 ETH into Binance (about $17.02 million), seemingly preparing to sell; meanwhile, an Ethereum bearish whale exited positions at a loss, losing $9.386 million.

3. The government of Bhutan deposited 700 Bitcoins into Binance (worth $43.75 million), which could be a signal of de-risking or selling. Another whale bought $37.7 million worth of ETH and WBTC within three days; ETH had an unrealized gain of $3.3 million, reflecting bullish sentiment from institutional investors.

4. European fintech company Revolut will stop supporting USDT on August 31 and will no longer accept new purchases after July 6.

5. On the Solana chain, the Meme coin ANSEM’s market cap surpassed $350 million, setting a new all-time high, with a 24-hour increase of 69.6%. The total amount of tokenized real-world assets on Solana hit a new high of $3.62 billion.

AI & Technology

1. Kuaishou’s Keling AI completed its first round of financing of $3.0 billion. The post-investment valuation is about $18.0 billion. Investors include Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, and others.

2. Alibaba’s DAMO Academy released its first AI agent for discovering superconducting materials—Elements Claw. In 28 GPU hours, it screened 2.4 million crystal structures and discovered four new types of superconductors.

3. Samsung plans to raise the average selling price of DRAM by 20% quarter-over-quarter in the third quarter. It has already verbally notified some customers. At the same time, Samsung’s 4nm foundry capacity is nearly sold out, and the company has started selecting orders.

4. The embodied intelligence sector is heating up. Unitree Technology’s registration for a ChiNext IPO has been approved. The estimated market size for China in 2026 is expected to reach RMB 1.09 trillion. A team from Peking University successfully developed the world’s first neural dynamics system chip based on phase-change memristors, achieving a speedup of 50 to 478 times over GPUs.

5. Goldman Sachs maintains a “Buy” rating for MiniMax, with a target price of HK$860. It says inference efficiency of its M3 model has improved by more than 2x, making it more cost-effective than DeepSeek’s V4 after its price increase.

Geopolitics

1. The situation in the Middle East remains tense: Iran held a public farewell and mourning ceremony in Tehran for the late supreme leader Khamenei; the Houthis claimed that Saudi aircraft violated Yemeni airspace and warned they would strike Saudi airports; Iran’s deputy foreign minister warned countries such as the UK and France not to carry out military actions in the Strait of Hormuz.

2. The Russia-Ukraine conflict continues: Putin said that large-scale strikes on Ukraine’s military-industrial facilities must continue. Russia said it intercepted 23 Ukrainian drones heading toward Moscow; Ukraine has not yet responded.

3. China Coast Guard’s Shushan (舰) formation replaced the Daishan (舰) formation, continuing routine law enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan. Experts say this move demonstrates sovereignty through continuous actions.

4. Canada plans to announce, at the NATO summit, the establishment of a global defense bank together with around 10 countries to reduce strategic reliance on the United States. Lithuania’s president said the country hopes to integrate into the Western nuclear deterrence framework against Russia, and it is currently lifting its ban on nuclear weapon deployments.

5. Trump announced that the U.S. Treasury Department will accept stock donations from public companies to fund the “Trump account” project. The number of applicants has exceeded 6 million, sparking ethical and legal controversies.

Market Sentiment Summary: Market sentiment is swinging between a tech investment boom and geopolitical risks. The cryptocurrency market shows a short-term rebound under ETF fund inflows and whale operations, but its sustainability remains doubtful. Financing in the AI and semiconductor sectors is active; expectations of hardware price increases are being reinforced. Investors should monitor how subsequent policy changes and geopolitical events affect risk appetite.

📡 Hourly News Report | 14:00-15:00

1. Iran’s deputy foreign minister warns the UK, France, and other countries not to carry out military actions in the Strait of Hormuz, stressing that security should be jointly maintained by coastal states.

2. China Mobile initiates the establishment of the first industry-leading AI-eSIM industrial collaboration platform in the sector, bringing together 40-plus leading companies to promote the standardized development of the intelligent connectivity ecosystem.

3. Russia says it intercepted 23 Ukrainian drones bound for Moscow, and the mayor of Moscow reports that the air defense system successfully intercepted them.

4. The price of Bitcoin is nearing $65,000. It has shown three bullish signals, but it remains to be seen whether a valid breakout occurs.

5. Hainan issues its “15th Five-Year Plan” (2026–2030) outlining steady progress toward banning the sale of gasoline-fueled vehicles by 2030. The share of new energy vehicle ownership is expected to reach 45%.

6. The State Administration for Market Regulation and the Ministry of Commerce publicly solicit opinions on the draft “E-Commerce Law (Amendment Draft for Comments),” aiming to standardize the conduct of platform operators.

7. Samsung Electro-Mechanics and Sumitomo Chemical form a joint venture to expand their glass substrate business, planning to start production in South Korea in the second half of 2027.

8. France’s health minister supports a lifelong ban on selling tobacco to people born in 2009 and afterward, but emphasizes that this does not reflect government decision-making.

📡 Hourly Report | 13:00-14:00

1. Goldman Sachs maintains a “Buy” rating for MiniMax, with a target price of HKD 860. It says its M3 model inference efficiency has improved by more than 2x, and its cost-effectiveness is better than DeepSeek’s post-price-increase V4.

2. France’s Minister of Health supports a lifelong ban on selling tobacco to people born in 2009 or later, aiming to create a smoke-free generation.

3. European fintech company Revolut will stop supporting USDT on August 31 and will no longer accept new purchases after July 6.

4. China Coast Guard conducts routine law-enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan Island. Experts say this move uses continuous actions to assert sovereignty.

5. Israel’s prosecutors have indicted a U.S.-born man for allegedly carrying out espionage for Iran—possibly as the first U.S.-linked suspect in the case.

6. Russia says it intercepted 23 Ukrainian drones headed for Moscow, while Ukraine has not yet responded.

7. In the first half of the year, issuance of “two-year” perpetual bonds by commercial banks exceeded 1 trillion yuan. State-owned major banks and joint-stock banks were the main issuers, while smaller and medium-sized banks progressed more slowly and offered higher interest rates.

8. The driver in the Tesla accident in Texas had searched “FSD too conservative” and manually accelerated, crashing into a residential home and causing one death. He has been charged with manslaughter by negligence.

📡 On-the-hour News | 12:00-13:00

1. The President of Lithuania said he hopes to integrate with the West’s nuclear deterrence system regarding Russia, as the country is lifting its ban on nuclear weapons deployment.

2. Zhongrong International Trust Co., Ltd. has been approved by regulators to enter bankruptcy proceedings according to law, becoming a major event in the industry.

3. He Tingbo, head of Huawei’s semiconductor business, released a paper on the “Tao Ding Law” V2 version, adding engineering details and measured data.

4. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw net inflows of $221.7 million on July 3, ending the previous 10 consecutive days of capital outflows.

5. Micron Technology officially launched the expansion of its Western Japan plant, with a total investment of 1.5 trillion yen, and the Japanese government’s maximum subsidy of 500 billion yen.

6. The Bhutanese government deposited 700 Bitcoins with Binance (valued at $43.75 million), possibly as a signal of planned sell-downs.

7. Trump pardoned 11 people (including 9 who violated the Clean Air Act), while SBF was not on the list.

8. China plans to expand the scope of the E-commerce Law to cover platforms and digital enterprises, and is soliciting public comments.

📡 Hourly News Broadcast | 11:00-12:00

1. Chen Li, co-founder of Ubtech, predicts that in the next 2–5 years the intelligent robotics industry will see three major breakthroughs: end-to-end large models, falling hardware costs, and scaled computing power. The hallmark of the “ChatGPT moment” for embodied intelligence is that a robot can complete 80% of tasks in 80% of unfamiliar scenarios.

2. Kuaishou has spun off its AI video generation unit, Ke Ling, securing $3.0 billion in investments from Tencent, Alibaba Cloud, Baidu, and others, with a valuation of $18.0 billion.

3. US President Trump said Iran is very eager to reach an agreement, citing a one-week holiday granted to Iran due to Hameinei’s funeral. Putin, meanwhile, said that large-scale strikes against Ukraine’s military-industrial facilities must continue.

4. Three ministries, including the Ministry of Finance, announced that starting in 2027, tax incentives for energy-saving and new-energy vehicles and vessels will be abolished. Experts recommend shifting to a mileage-based differentiated road usage fee system.

5. Alibaba’s DAMO Academy AI agent ElementsClaw screened 2.4 million crystal structures within 28 GPU hours, discovering four new types of superconductors.

6. A major US options market maker, Hainer International, has sued 100 people accused of allegedly obtaining advance knowledge of China’s regulatory actions. They allegedly profited more than $100 million through put options, and the court has frozen the relevant accounts.

7. Samsung Electronics plans to unexpectedly raise DRAM prices by 20% in the third quarter, putting pressure on major tech companies’ investments.

8. In Belgium, a 11-day heatwave killed 1,222 people; nearly half were elderly people aged 85 and above, and the death rate was 39% higher than normal levels.

📡 Top-of-the-hour update | 10:00-11:00

1. Doubao and the Qianwen platform each announced that their intelligent agent features will be discontinued on July 10 and July 15, 2026, respectively. Users need to back up their data before October 15.

2. In Tehran, Iran held a public farewell and memorial ceremony for the late supreme leader Khamenei. He was killed in a U.S.-Israeli airstrike on February 28.

3. China Coast Guard’s Xiu Shan (秀山) vessel formation took over from the Dai Shan (岱山) formation and continues routine law-enforcement patrols in waters east of Taiwan.

4. A team from Peking University successfully developed the world’s first neural dynamics system chip based on phase-change memristors. In tasks such as cerebral cortex reconstruction, it achieves speedups of 50 to 478 times compared with GPUs.

5. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $294.62 million in net outflows, while demand for Ethereum funds shows a more resilient institutional investment landscape.

6. Canada plans to, together with around 10 other countries at the NATO summit, announce the establishment of a Global Defense Bank to reduce strategic dependence on the United States.

7. The Central Meteorological Observatory continues issuing orange alerts for heavy rain. It is expected that regions including Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hubei will experience extremely heavy rainfall, with localized areas in southern Guangxi seeing exceptionally heavy rainfall.

8. Changguang Satellite has completed equity financing of nearly 5 billion yuan. The funds will be used to build satellite mass-production capabilities, develop the “Jilin-1” networking, and create remote-sensing data application software.

📡 Hourly Report | 09:00-10:00

1. The State Administration for Market Regulation and the Ministry of Commerce have publicly solicited comments on the “E-commerce Law (Draft Amendment for Public Comment)”, covering five areas including expanding and adjusting the scope, and improving platform responsibilities.

2. Typhoon “Maysak” is expected to land again tonight near the border area between Guangxi and northern Vietnam. The National Marine Forecasting Center has upgraded the storm surge alert to yellow, with heavy to intense rainfall expected across South China.

3. Samsung plans to raise DRAM prices by about 20% in the third quarter. It has orally notified some customers. Meanwhile, Samsung’s 4nm foundry capacity is nearly sold out, and it has started accepting orders selectively.

4. Kuaishou’s subsidiary, Keling AI, has completed its first round of financing of $3.0 billion, with a post-investment valuation of about $18.0 billion. Investors include Tencent, Alibaba, Baidu, and others.

5. The funeral of Iran’s Supreme Leader Khamenei begins today in places including Tehran, as tensions in the Middle East continue to run high.

6. Alibaba’s DAMO Academy has released its first AI discovery agent for superconducting materials, Elements Claw. The discovery has been validated through lab experiments, confirming four new types of superconductors.

7. The first “Hualong One” project in the Guangdong–Hong Kong–Macao Greater Bay Area—the Taipingling Nuclear Power Plant Unit 2—achieved successful first grid connection, generating its first unit of electricity.

8. A single whale bought $37.7 million worth of ETH and WBTC within three days. Of the ETH, there is an unrealized gain of $3.3 million, reflecting bullish sentiment among institutional investors.

📡 On-the-hour News | 08:00-09:00

1. Intensive verification of reusable rocket technologies. Commercial space companies such as Blue Arrow Aerospace and CAS Space have accelerated their IPO plans; more than 20 A-share related companies have been revealed. Companies like Haozhi Electromechanical have received expectations of high performance from institutions.

2. According to analysts at SemiAnalysis, the share of AI data center spending on memory will exceed 40% by 2027. The market has not yet fully priced this in.

3. Trump announced that the U.S. Treasury will accept stock donations from listed companies to fund the “Trump Account” program. The number of applicants has already exceeded 6 million, sparking ethical and legal controversies.

4. Samsung plans to raise the average DRAM selling price by 20% quarter-on-quarter in the third quarter. It has already verbally notified some customers, and consumer-electronics terminal manufacturers have confirmed the news is true.

5. The embodied intelligence sector is heating up. Unitree Technology’s registration for a Sci-Tech Innovation Board IPO has been approved. The expected market size in China in 2026 will reach 1.09 trillion yuan, and the competitive focus will shift from “building bodies” to “competing with data.”

6. Spot gold rose 1.23% to $4,174.90 per ounce. It gained 2.13% for the week so far. Weaker-than-expected employment reports have reignited rate-cut expectations, providing upward momentum for gold prices.

7. Giant whale Chun Wang transferred 9,876 ETH (about $17.02 million) into Binance, apparently preparing to sell. Meanwhile, an Ethereum short “giant whale” exited positions after realizing a loss of $9.386 million.

8. Argentina defeated Cape Verde 3-2 to advance to the Round of 16. Messi scored his 20th World Cup goal, ushering in the “20-goal era.”

📡 Hourly News Update | 07:00-08:00

1. Messi scored 20 goals at the World Cup and netted in eight consecutive matches, setting a historic new record.

2. Ongoing tensions in the Middle East: France adjusts its military deployments, Houthi forces intercept Saudi aircraft, Iran warns the U.S. to comply with the memorandum of understanding, and Fitch warns that risks remain at the tail end of the conflict.

3. The cryptocurrency market rebounds: Bitcoin breaks through $61,000, SOL rebounds as meme-coin activity surges, but the sustainability of the rally is in doubt.

4. The brokerage sector sees intensive institutional research: since June, 13 brokerages have been surveyed. Industry expectations suggest that listed brokerages’ net profit year-on-year growth could reach as high as 50%, and that the valuation-repair rally has staying power.

5. The Central Meteorological Observatory issues three alerts—heavy rain, typhoons, and severe convective weather. Areas including Guangxi and Guangdong need to guard against heavy rainfall and typhoon impacts; on the Jingha line’s conventional-speed railway, some trains are delayed due to rainfall exceeding the standard.

6. Germany’s 2027 draft budget plans to add borrowing of more than €203 billion, and defense spending will rise to €130.1 billion to address economic sluggishness and geopolitical risks.

7. PJM, the largest power-grid operator in the U.S., triggers a Level 2 energy emergency alert due to extreme heat and transmission overload. In Northern Virginia, spot electricity prices exceed $2,500 per MWh.

8. OPEC: June crude-oil production increases by about 3.3 million barrels per day month-on-month, rebounding from a more than two-decade low, but it remains far below quota levels.

📡 8-Hour Review | July 04, 00:00-08:00

Over the past 8 hours, global markets have been choppy amid multiple factors, including cooling macro data, rising geopolitical risks, and the rapid transition of the AI industry. The U.S. dollar logged its biggest weekly drop since April after weak employment data. Gold and Bitcoin rebounded as a result. Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East have remained high; OPEC output surged, and China’s AI industry shifting toward domestically produced chips has become even clearer.

Macroeconomy

1. The weakening of U.S. June nonfarm payrolls has dampened near-term rate-hike expectations. The U.S. dollar index is expected to post its largest weekly decline since April, while the euro and the pound strengthened.

2. Allianz’s chief economist warned that the Fed may have to raise rates in September, as inflation is expected to peak above 3.7%, with AI and fiscal stimulus supporting the economy.

3. ECB President Lagarde will rarely attend in person next week’s EU finance ministers’ meeting. The market is watching whether she steps down early to enter French politics. Germany’s draft 2027 budget shows new borrowing of more than €203 billion, with defense spending rising sharply.

4. Extreme heat has swept the U.S. Midwest and Northeast. More than 185 million people are under heat alerts. PJM, the largest grid operator in the U.S., warned it cannot meet expected energy demand and will implement plans to cut electricity consumption.

5. Brazil’s June trade surplus expanded to $9.758 billion, with year-on-year growth in both soybean and iron ore export volumes.

Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin hit $62,300, a nine-day high, rebounding from around $58,000 to near $62,000, boosted by record highs in global stock markets and a return of ETF inflows.

2. In the past 24 hours, crypto liquidations totaled $174 million across the market. Both long and short positions were liquidated, and volatility was intense. Bitcoin faces key resistance in the $62,800–$63,400 range.

3. Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings narrowed their unrealized loss to $11.5 billion. The number of net purchases by listed companies reached 166,984 BTC—more than double the amount produced by mining.

4. Trump’s financial disclosures show that in 2025 he earned more than $600 million from the $TRUMP meme coin. The revenue share has already surpassed the total of his real-estate and licensing businesses.

5. Illinois signed the Digital Assets Privilege Tax Act, which will levy taxes on crypto activities starting January 1, 2027.

AI Technology

1. China’s AI industry has reached a turning point. ByteDance, Alibaba, and Baidu are shifting to domestically produced chips. The share of domestically produced GPUs in new deployments has risen to 41%. Supported by AI application growth, China’s quant funds have seen assets under management double in less than a year to about $384 billion.

2. Anthropic launched Claude Science, a platform for scientists, and plans to take the lead in AI chip R&D. Alibaba banned employees from using Claude Code, after earlier accusations that it carried out model-distillation attacks.

3. Microsoft invested $2.5 billion to set up a new AI engineering division, deploying 6,000 experts to help companies build AI systems, and secretly incubating Project Aion to create a Copilot operating system.

4. A surge in storage-chip prices has triggered a group lawsuit by U.S. consumers, accusing Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron of driving price increases of roughly 700% since 2022 by cutting DRAM capacity. UBS raised its storage-price outlook. The DRAM/NAND price upcycle is expected to continue through 2027.

5. Spending on AI infrastructure hit a record high, but efficiency gains are reducing the necessity of building space data centers. In the U.S., 11 states have limited AI data-center expansion due to rising power costs.

Geopolitics

1. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russian forces have fully “liberated” Luhansk and captured the town of Konstantinovka, saying that Russian troops have gained “strategic initiative.” The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant lost external power for the 21st time; its emergency diesel generators have started running.

2. Yemen’s Houthi forces said they intercepted a Saudi warplane and warned that if Saudi Arabia launches further attacks, they will strike its airports and important interests. Fitch ratings warned that ongoing Middle East conflict poses risks to global companies.

3. Israel’s prime minister’s office denied reports about a planned assassination of Iran’s negotiation representative, calling it “fake news.” Iran’s parliament speaker, Ghalibaf, said the U.S. must accept the region’s “real changes.”

4. OPEC’s June oil production surged by 2.34 million barrels per day to 18.75 million bpd. Increases were significant for Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, but the level is still far below pre-war figures. A Reuters survey showed that OPEC’s June crude output rose by 3.30 million barrels per day month-over-month.

Commodities & Gold

1. JPMorgan maintains its long-term bullish view on gold. It expects the average spot price in the third quarter of 2026 to be $4,300 per ounce, rising to $4,500 in the fourth quarter. It also expects further recovery in 2027. Spot gold rose 2.16% over the week.

2. The weakening of U.S. June nonfarm payroll data reduced near-term rate-hike expectations. Gold prices rebounded to above $4,100 per ounce, and the risk of a further sharp drop later has narrowed.

3. In domestic futures, night trading saw more gains than losses. Asphalt rose nearly 3%, synthetic rubber rose more than 2%, and liquefied petroleum gas fell more than 1%.

Market sentiment summary: The market is swinging between cooling macro data and rising geopolitical risks. A weaker dollar is driving rebounds in gold and Bitcoin. However, volatility remains high in the crypto market. The AI industry’s transition and the surge in storage-chip prices have become the key focus in tech, and overall sentiment is cautiously optimistic.

📡 Hourly Report | 06:00-07:00

1. Russian President Putin announces that Russian forces have fully liberated Luhansk and have made major progress in Donetsk, while the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant has lost external power for the 21st time amid the conflict.

2. Iran warns the United States not to violate the Iran-U.S. memorandum of understanding, saying any violation will be met with a response. Meanwhile, Poland’s prime minister urges the NATO representative to be cautious in making a new financial support commitment to Ukraine.

3. China’s quant funds are being driven by AI applications. Assets under management have doubled in less than a year to about USD 38.4 billion, as investors’ money pours in.

4. Several European countries are affected by the ongoing heatwave. More than 4,000 cases of excess deaths have been recorded, and France experienced its highest temperatures in nearly 80 years last week.

5. The iPhone 18/18e cannot support two AI features of iOS 27 due to the need for 12GB of RAM. Apple has also begun testing iOS 27.4 and plans to roll out new features such as AI-enhanced Siri.

6. Inference chips are evolving from general-purpose GPUs toward specialization and heterogeneity. Multiple companies have released chips with different architectures to address the “inference crisis.”

7. From January to May this year, China’s Export-Import Bank has issued more than CNY 340 billion in new technology loans, focusing on areas such as artificial intelligence and humanoid robots.

8. The Central Meteorological Observatory issues alerts for heavy rain and strong convective weather. In some areas of Guangxi, Guangdong, Hainan, and other places, there are bouts of torrential rain, with localized thunderstorms, strong winds, or hail.

📡 Hourly News Update | 05:00-06:00

1. Weakening of the U.S. June nonfarm payrolls data dampened short-term rate-hike expectations. Gold rebounded to above $4,100 per ounce, with the risk of further sharp declines in the future narrowing.

2. Emerging-market assets rallied across the board, boosted by the AI boom and optimistic expectations for the U.S. Federal Reserve. The MSCI Emerging Markets Stock Index posted its largest single-day gain since mid-June.

3. The largest U.S. power grid saw electricity demand surge to a record high due to extreme heat. The Department of Energy ordered generating units to run at full capacity to prevent power outages.

4. Last year, Trump reportedly profited $1.4 billion from cryptocurrencies; the share of his revenue from this source has now surpassed the combined total from real estate and licensing businesses.

5. Spending on AI infrastructure hit a record high, but efficiency improvements are reducing the necessity of building space-based data centers. Eleven U.S. states have limited the expansion of AI data centers due to rising electricity costs.

6. A 5.5-magnitude earthquake struck the near-offshore waters of central Chile. The epicenter depth was 10 kilometers. There have been no reports of casualties or property damage.

7. The state of Illinois signed the “Digital Assets Privilege Tax Act,” which will impose taxes on crypto activities starting January 1, 2027.

8. Brazil’s Supreme Court ruled to extend former President Jair Bolsonaro’s home confinement.

📡 Top-of-the-hour bulletin | 04:00-05:00

1. Extreme heat sweeps across the U.S. and the Middle East; more than 185 million people are under heat alerts. With the country’s 250th anniversary Independence Day celebrations, many events were cancelled. The National Mall in Washington hosts a temporary closure of the exhibition.

2. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that Russian forces have “completely liberated” Luhansk and taken control of the city of Konstantynivka, as the geopolitical situation remains tense.

3. Bitcoin’s price hits $62,594. The crypto market shows momentum in catching up with equities. About 50% of positions are in profit, and analysts are watching for signs of a bullish market reversal in the second half of the year.

4. European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde warns that the pace of AI development is outstripping existing rules, posing a major risk. The UK’s FCA says the traditional rulemaking timeline is “not working.”

5. The U.S. dollar index falls 0.02% to 100.845. Driven by rising expectations for rate cuts, the week is expected to record the largest weekly drop since April, with assets in Latin America seeing a rebound.

6. In Venezuela, the death toll from the earthquake rises to 2,645; 12,666 people are injured. 1,074 buildings have been damaged, and 15,050 people have been displaced.

7. Forecasts for S&P 500 revenues in the second quarter of 2026 are expected to grow 12.2% year-over-year, higher than the earlier estimate of 9.5%. U.S. stocks rebound after a selloff in technology shares.

8. Argentina’s central bank foreign-exchange reserves total $48.24 billion. In June, car sales reach 44,096 units. Brazil’s Supreme Court allows former President Jair Bolsonaro to continue his house arrest in a more lenient form.

📡 Hourly News Report | 03:00-04:00

1. Russian President Putin inspects a frontline command post, saying Russian forces have seized “strategic initiative,” and have fully “liberated” Konstantinovka.

2. A Reuters investigation shows that in June, OPEC crude oil production surged by 3.3 million barrels per day month-on-month. It rebounded from multi-year lows, but supply remains far below quota levels.

3. The dollar is expected to record its biggest weekly drop since April this week, as cooling U.S. employment data weakens expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes, while the euro and pound strengthen.

4. PJM, the largest U.S. grid operator, warns it cannot meet expected energy demand and will implement planned reductions in electricity usage in its service area.

5. Iran’s parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, says the U.S. must accept “real changes” in the region and hopes to create conditions for lifting sanctions.

6. JPMorgan forecasts that gold prices will reach $4,500 in the fourth quarter, but notes that if economic data is strong, the Federal Reserve may raise rates earlier, creating downside risk to its outlook.

7. Tesla’s Optimus robot is set for mass production soon; installation of the first production line has begun, and China’s A-share humanoid robot sector is rising.

8. Bitcoin faces a key resistance level in the $62,800–$63,400 range. If it falls below $59,055, the liquidation intensity for long positions could reach $1.196 billion.

📡 Hourly News Brief | 02:00-03:00

1. US officials are concerned that Israel’s planned assassination of Iran’s negotiating representative could derail peace talks. Meanwhile, Iran’s president discussed expanding cooperation with Russia, and the Houthis threatened retaliation against Saudi Arabia.

2. Microsoft will invest $2.5 billion to establish a new AI engineering division, deploying 6,000 experts to help companies build AI systems, while secretly incubating Project Aion to develop a Copilot operating system.

3. UBS raised its outlook for storage prices. The DRAM/NAND price-increase cycle is expected to continue through 2027, with supply-demand imbalance at a 30-year rare level.

4. ECB President Christine Lagarde will unusually attend next week’s EU finance ministers’ meeting in person. The market is watching whether she steps down early to enter French politics.

5. Trump’s financial disclosures show that in 2025, he earned more than $600 million in revenue from the $TRUMP meme coin. The SEC chair said it will cooperate with the CFTC to push the market toward on-chain.

6. Peru’s National Elections Office announced that Keiko Fujimori has been elected president. She will be sworn in on July 28, serving a five-year term.

7. JPMorgan Chase expects gold to face near-term pressure, but may reach $4,500 in the second half of 2026. Spot gold rose 2.16% this week.

8. Brazil’s June trade surplus expanded to $9.758 billion. Both soybean and iron ore export volumes increased year over year.

📡 On-the-hour Bulletin | 01:00-02:00

1. JPMorgan maintains a long-term bullish view on gold, forecasting an average price of $4,300 per ounce in Q3 2026, rising to $4,500 in Q4, with a further recovery in 2027.

2. The Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant lost external power for the 21st time. Emergency diesel generators have started running. Power has been restored, but one transmission line remains unusable.

3. Canada’s pension fund CPP Investments will invest $1.75 billion to support Yintuo’s AI infrastructure buildout, planning to develop over 10 gigawatts of data centers.

4. ECB President Lagarde will personally attend next week’s EU finance ministers’ meeting rather than being represented by the vice president—an action that is quite rare.

5. Bitcoin rebounded from $58,000 to around $62,000. ETF inflows have returned, and net purchases of bitcoin by listed companies reached 166,984 coins—double the output from mined production.

6. UK prime minister candidate Burnham confirmed that there will be no early election. He will negotiate a more “ambitious” agreement with the EU and is also willing to hold talks with the Taliban to deport Afghan nationals seeking asylum.

7. The Argentine government announced the abolition of the Ministry of the Interior, with its functions transferred to the Office of the Chief of the Cabinet, and has created two positions for deputy cabinet ministers.

8. The WHO says the Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo is still spreading. The number of new cases each week has reached the highest level since the outbreak began, and the situation is grave.

📡 Hourly Update | 00:00-01:00

1. The global investment and financing market remains hot. AI and hard-tech fields continue to attract massive capital; companies such as Quantum Systems, ElevenLabs, and Crusoe received large rounds of funding. Conglomerates including South Korea’s Samsung and SK Group have announced investment in physical AI industry clusters at the scale of hundreds of billions of won.

2. ECB Governing Council member Nagel stressed the need to stay alert to inflation risks and maintain policy flexibility. Germany’s 2027 budget draft shows new borrowing exceeding €203 billion, with defense spending rising sharply.

3. Fitch Ratings warned that the ongoing conflict in the Middle East poses risks to global businesses. Trump and Netanyahu spoke by phone and agreed to hold a meeting soon. The Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant lost external power supply for the 21st time.

4. The cryptocurrency market is highly volatile. In the past 24 hours, the entire market saw liquidations totaling $174 million. Bitcoin’s rebound needs to break through the $72,000 resistance level. Strategy’s unrealized losses narrowed to $11.5 billion.

5. Anthropic launched the Claude Science platform for scientists and plans to take the lead in AI chip R&D. Alibaba has banned employees from using Claude Code, after previously accusing it of conducting model distillation attacks.

6. UK Bank of England Governor Bailey said that if a war involving Iran had not broken out, the UK’s inflation rate would have already met the target; current inflation is 2.8%, and the government will work to bring it down.

7. A surge in storage chip prices has triggered a class action lawsuit by US consumers. The lawsuit alleges that Samsung, SK hynix, and Micron drove prices up by roughly 700% since 2022 by cutting DRAM production capacity.

8. Typhoon “Maysak” has made landfall in Hainan. It is expected to move into the Beibu Gulf in the early hours of the 4th. Guangxi will see strong winds and heavy rain, and the weather disaster emergency response has been raised to Level III.

📡 Hourly News Report | 23:00-00:00

1. OPEC: June oil production daily output surged by 2.34 million barrels to 18.75 million barrels. Increases were notable in Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and Iran, but they still remain far below pre-war levels.

2. Allianz chief economist warns the U.S. Federal Reserve may have to raise rates in September, as the inflation rate is expected to peak at above 3.7%, with support from AI and fiscal stimulus.

3. Yemen’s Houthi forces claim to have intercepted a Saudi fighter jet, warning that if Saudi launches further attacks, it will target its airports and other key interests.

4. China’s AI industry is at a turning point. ByteDance, Alibaba, and Baidu have shifted to domestic chips, and domestic GPUs’ share in new deployments has risen to 41%.

5. Bitcoin hits $62,300, a nine-day high, buoyed by global stock markets reaching record highs.

6. Major European stock indices closed higher across the board: Germany’s DAX 30 rose 0.90%, and the UK’s FTSE 100 rose 0.25%.

7. The Prime Minister’s Office of Israel denies reports of plans to assassinate Iran negotiation representatives, calling it “false news.”

8. Domestic futures trade at night saw more gain than loss: asphalt rose by nearly 3%, synthetic rubber rose by more than 2%, while liquefied petroleum gas fell by more than 1%.

📡 Daily News Briefing Overview | July 03

Over the past 24 hours, global markets sharply diverged under the dual shock of the “surprise NFP” and rising geopolitical tensions. U.S. June nonfarm payrolls came in far below expectations, adding only 57,000 jobs. Markets quickly scaled back expectations of further Federal Reserve rate hikes; the U.S. dollar weakened, gold surged straight through $4,180 per ounce, and Bitcoin reclaimed $62,000. However, China’s A-share technology stocks suffered panic selling after a misinterpretation of Meta’s AI compute-power sale as “oversupply of compute,” with the STAR 50 index plunging 7.7%—in stark contrast to the strength of safe-haven assets. Meanwhile, the deadlock over the Strait of Hormuz passage fees remains unresolved, the Russia-Ukraine conflict escalates, and domestic financial regulation has been tightened abruptly (with several institutions being taken over and others failing), leading to heavy risk-avoidance sentiment and a clear divergence in asset prices.

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📊 Global Macros

1. Surprise NFP print triggers plunge in rate-hike expectations: U.S. June nonfarm employment added only 57,000 people, far below the expected 110,000, while the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to 4.2%. Markets cut the probability of a July rate hike by the Fed from 29% to 18%. Multiple institutions maintained “no hikes, no cuts” guidance for the rest of the year. The U.S. dollar index fell more than 0.4% to 100.89.

2. Gold and U.S. Treasuries attract strong demand: Spot gold rose more than 2.3% to $4,123 per ounce, then broke above $4,180, setting a recent high. The total assets under U.S. money market funds hit an all-time high of $795 billion, reflecting intense risk-averse sentiment.

3. Europe stocks hit new highs; economic data proves resilient: The eurozone’s unemployment rate fell to 6.2% in May, and the June final composite PMI was 50, indicating the pace of contraction slowed. Both the STOXX 600 Index and the eurozone STOXX 50 Index reached record closing highs. The FTSE 100 rose 1.67%.

4. Domestic easing tone continues: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) net injected 50 billion yuan via open-market treasury bond operations in June. Net injections via 7-day reverse repos totaled 582.6 billion yuan. It also announced that on July 6 it will conduct a 1,000 billion yuan term buyout-style reverse repo to keep banking-system liquidity ample.

5. Refined oil prices record the biggest intrayear drop: Refined oil prices were cut by 950 yuan per ton and 915 yuan per ton starting at 24:00. Filling a private car’s tank will cost about 40 yuan less, reflecting expectations of a slowdown in global demand.

6. Japanese government bond yields surge: The yield on Japan’s 10-year JGB climbed to 2.81%, the highest since 1996, as market expectations for the Bank of Japan’s normalization of monetary policy warmed.

💰 Crypto Market

1. Bitcoin back above $62,000; ETF inflows return: Boosted by weak NFP data and cooling rate-hike expectations, Bitcoin rose more than 2.5% to break through $62,000, while Ether returned to above $1,700. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs ended a streak of ten consecutive days of net outflows, with yesterday’s net inflow reaching $223.5 million, signaling improving investor sentiment.

2. Market sentiment still in a panic zone: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell to 22, indicating extreme fear. Analysts believe BTC, ETH, XRP, and SOL have generated buy signals, and the market may already be oversold.

3. Institutions accelerate positioning: Standard Chartered Bank partnered with Circle to launch bank-led USDC minting and redemption services. Crypto payments startup Mesh raised funding led by Binance, with a valuation of about $2 billion. On-chain perpetual futures platform Extended completed $12.5 million in strategic financing.

4. Regulatory and compliance updates: OFAC added 134 crypto wallet addresses linked to ISIS-K to its sanctions list, and Tether has frozen related funds. Citigroup lowered Strategy’s target price from $260 to $136 while maintaining a “Buy” rating.

🤖 AI and Technology

1. A-share tech stocks hit by a “compute oversupply” misread: The STAR 50 index plunged 7.7%, with semiconductors and compute-hardware sectors leading the decline. The market misinterpreted Meta’s sale of idle GPU compute as “compute oversupply.” Insiders clarified that it is actually a mature AI infrastructure business model; Lenovo executives said long-term demand still has enormous room.

2. Kuaishou’s KeLing AI sets a global video foundation model funding record: Kuaishou’s AI video generation model, KeLing, completed nearly $3 billion in financing. Post-investment valuation is about $18 billion, setting the largest global funding record for video foundation model companies.

3. Microsoft and Meta step up AI deployments: Microsoft formed a new 6,000-person department to help businesses deploy AI and plans to merge Copilot for consumers and enterprises into a single unified application. Meta is considering partnering with Samsung to produce customized AI chips worth 100 trillion won, using a 2-nanometer process.

4. New breakthroughs from Anthropic and Alibaba’s DAMO Academy: Anthropic launched early development of its own AI chips and is in talks with Samsung regarding 2-nanometer manufacturing processes. Alibaba’s DAMO Academy released its first AI agent for superconducting materials—Elements Claw—predicting 68,000 superconducting materials.

5. Yushu Technology’s Science and Technology Innovation Board IPO approved: The CSRC approved Yushu Technology’s IPO registration on the STAR Market. It took only 73 days from acceptance to meeting, setting the fastest STAR Market review record, lifting A-share humanoid robot concept stocks across the board.

🌍 Geopolitics

1. The Hormuz Strait standoff persists: Negotiations between the U.S. and Iran over passage-fee issues have yielded no results. The U.S. proposed freezing tens of billions of dollars in assets in exchange for Iran giving up charging fees, but Iran refused to compromise. Iran’s speaker said the strait should be jointly managed by Iran and Oman, raising global concerns about oil shipping. Saudi Arabia’s four supertankers loaded about 8 million barrels of crude oil and sailed out of the strait.

2. Escalation in the Russia-Ukraine conflict: Russian forces launched large-scale retaliatory strikes on Kyiv and other areas, killing 27 people and injuring 91. Ukraine said it was hit strikes on the Russian Air Force base in Crimea, with at least seven aircraft destroyed. NATO pledged to provide €70 billion in military aid to Ukraine in 2026.

3. Iran’s nuclear facilities damaged: Iran’s nuclear facilities suffered severe damage, and the International Atomic Energy Agency has not yet been approved to conduct inspections. A vice-chairman of the Russian Federal Security Council

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