It’s already very difficult to file a case in China for crypto theft.
Most grassroots police stations haven’t handled virtual currency cases. They may not know how to format the official request letter, how to provide on-chain evidence, or how to coordinate with exchanges.
gate at this scale should assign dedicated personnel to provide one-on-one, offline support to get the whole process completed, rather than posting a timeline on Twitter to prove, “It’s not my problem.”
Helping users solve their problems is more important than winning one round of an online public-opinion battle.
Whether it’s BitMEX or Bitmart, neither is a rug pull—it's just that you can’t make money with a second-tier offshore exchange or see any hope in it, so they actively shut down.
Looking at the broader environment: nobody’s trading coins, and the total market is shrinking dramatically.
By region: the three major markets—the US, South Korea, and Europe—have all become compliant, so offshore space is getting smaller and smaller; in Russia and Iran, if you keep going, you’ll risk your life; in the Chinese-language markets it’s extremely crowded, with the leading exchanges taking up all the space; and in other smaller markets, it’s not profitable.
The market is so bad like this—lots of projects have stalled.
But @predictdotfun is actually growing. Today I chatted with the head of another predict sector and we discussed the state of the predict market. Over the past month, as we watch the platform data, it’s becoming more active—many projects are already laying plans for the predict sector. Today, Changxin Technology listed. In the order book, the people following along directly arbitraged and took a 17% profit. If you got an A-share lottery allocation, you earned over 20,000. If you didn’t get a slot, you still made money on Predict.
Movie box office, Nobel Prize, NBA championship, will OpenAI list on predict? There’s all kinds of markets on predict.
Maybe this is also the rare, currently active market.
A brother I know previously found and opened a node through the official channel on his own, and they gave him a very low percentage.
Today he found me, and I directly raised it to 40%—no assessment required.
Actually, many people don’t know that the official rate started at 30%. The 40% rate requires performance targets to be met. Since the leader achieved the highest performance assessment, he was granted this permission to open it. In other words, it’s like I took on the performance pressure on my side.
Also, for retail traders who want to save on trading fees—no matter what your situation is:
• Existing users who haven’t traded in 90 days → straightaway can be bound • Daily trading volume below $5,000 → you can still apply • Never been bound to someone else →
In short, if you want to save on fees, just do it yourself—basically everything can be sorted out.
And if anyone wants to treat this as a side job and do a bit of promotion, the demand is still pretty high. Many people don’t know they can save this money. You can tell them, and you can also earn on the side.
If you want to save money or want to do this as a side job, feel free to chat anytime.
After playing for a while @predictdotfun , I realized this:
The essence of prediction markets is PVP. What you earn is what the opposing side loses.
So how do you win? Two words: misalignment.
For example, during the World Cup, once the regular 90 minutes end, the result is already effectively decided—there’s no uncertainty in win/loss. But settlement is delayed. A large number of users who don’t understand the rules keep placing bets after the match is over. People who do understand the rules just sit at 99 and take orders, harvesting one point at a time. Big capital effectively prints money.
One side understands the rules, the other doesn’t.
The same logic applies to other markets as well:
For an IPO market-cap bet, the opposing side is foreigners and crypto players who don’t understand the A-share IPO subscription sentiment. If you’re an A-share retail investor, it’s a dimensionality reduction attack.
For sports markets, the opposing side is people from the crypto world. They might not even recognize the players, yet they go all-in. Real fans naturally have an advantage.
Find that right misaligned market, and keep placing bets repeatedly.
The girl’s rights protection gate: watching his latest response, it says the case has been filed. But the gate won’t cooperate. I’m very sympathetic to what he’s going through. In a situation like this, with such a large sum stolen—especially when the market isn’t doing great—at least in a bull market that money should multiply several times. But it feels like the victim himself isn’t taking enough initiative, and it seems like things have kind of gone quiet. That really doesn’t match the usual pattern.
Today I helped a brother get a boost node, and I quickly算了 how much he can save 👍
His monthly trading volume is over 6 million U (USDT). Contract fees are 0.1% (a.k.a.万五). That means his monthly fee is 3000 U. With a 40% rebate, he saves 1200 U per month. That’s 14,400 U per year. With a monthly trading volume of just 500 WU, you can directly activate the node. If you haven’t reached it, you can directly activate a standard rebate.
Why must you bind the rebate?
1️⃣ Save more: the bigger the volume, the more you save. With 6 million U in monthly volume, you save 14,400 U in a year. Even with 1 million U, you can still save 2,400 U.
2️⃣ After binding, trade however you normally trade—no impact on strategy, no impact on habits.
3️⃣ Existing accounts can bind too: if your trading volume hasn’t been large within the last 90 days, you can still bind later. It’s not only for new users—existing users can also switch the binding.
Honestly, being able to help others save money is really great. In this market, everyone’s finding it tough. If you can lose a little less, that’s something.
Invitation code: JOENS If you need it, you can scan the Binance helper friend code DD, or join the helper’s Binance chat room.
I circled around on Predict and found that everyone’s gameplay has gotten incredibly creative
I整理 (organized) the main current approaches:
1) Finance-style
Buy at low prices on relatively certain markets and hold through settlement. For example, look at the FDV market-cap order book, decide the direction is right, then buy and hold. Someone calculated that the return for half a year is around 10%. In essence, it’s low-risk on-chain “financial management.”
2) Market-making style
Arbitrage the price spread between Predict and Polymarket. Leverage the pricing differences: place orders on one side while hedging the other, and also earn PP rewards. Some people run 6 accounts at once doing this. But it requires a certain amount of capital and technical know-how.
3) Quant-style
Some are researching using weather models to “play against” the order book—trying to exploit the gap between market pricing and real probability. It’s still in the experimental stage. The idea is interesting, but hasn’t been widely validated yet.
4) Sports-style
Soccer/NBA/UEFA Champions League—predict match results based on your knowledge. But some people using AI have failed badly (only 3 correct out of 18), which shows it’s not that easy to beat the markets. You really need a genuine knowledge edge.
5) Airdrop-farming style
Accumulate PP points through trading and wait for TGE to unlock. Since the World Cup just ended, it’s an off-peak period. The exact value isn’t clear yet, but many people are hoarding.
Summary: There are many ways to play, but not every approach fits everyone. Finance-style has the lowest barrier. Market-making and quant require capital and technical skills. Sports-style depends on your cognition/knowledge. Airdrop-farming depends on patience.
This month, the total trading volume of the prediction markets exceeded $50B. The track/sector is exploding—reminder: if you participated in the Predict Cup, don’t forget to claim your medal.
dappOS is finally getting ready for its TGE I’ve done interactions with this before Hope this time the airdrop will get us a little something Airdrop pre-registration: https://dappos.com/airdrop-register Deadline: August 2nd If you haven’t registered yet, hurry @dappOS_com
Scroll back to last year’s social post—full of plans
One project to work on, another to apply for the IPO, Alpha to review, something on-chain to research. Every day you wake up with something to do. It feels like there are so many opportunities you can’t finish them all.
Now when you open your computer, you don’t know what to do. There’s no new project worth researching. No hot topics worth chasing. No action to take. You can’t even apply for the IPO. Second-tier won’t give you any room. On-chain, it’s just a handful of people circle-jerking among themselves.
It’s really hard to find a direction. The whole industry has entered a boring phase. And it’s such a pity—I lost too much last year. I can’t accept it. I didn’t get to quit while I was ahead. Utterly miserable.
Suddenly I feel that if I hadn’t gotten into web3, I probably would’ve just found a job, gone through the routine, and lived a step-by-step life. No unheard-of stories about striking it rich by hundreds or even thousands of times. And definitely I wouldn’t be having dreams like this.
Last night I chatted with a friend who’s in another industry. They couldn’t understand our kind of world at all—nothing about “on-chain memes,” “Trump issuing tokens,” or “turning your life around overnight.” They think all of it is a scam or a joke.
I told them that back in the day, I joined the BNB ICO and got dozens of times returns, but I sold it at a point that ended up costing me thousands of times later. Their reaction was disbelief—they felt that something like that couldn’t truly exist.
There’s still a very deep barrier between traditional industries and web3.
Recently I’ve taken a look at other industries. Even though the overall market is pretty bleak right now, I still feel that this space is relatively the easiest place to find opportunities.
When the wind comes, opportunities will show up from time to time.
I just realized this DEEX has been up for half a year, with a head-cut every day—does anyone really buy this coin? I haven’t seen much discussion about it.