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I noticed that the TVL path of @BabylonLabs_io is not a straight line, but clearly split into three phases.
Starting from the launch mark of roughly $307 million in early 2024, the separate staking-cap openings—such as Cap-2 in October 2024—immediately pulled in $2 billion within just a few blocks, pushing TVL to rise exponentially and reaching a peak of over $7.1–$7.4 billion during 2025.
That’s equivalent to an increase of more than 2,300% in one year.
But what I find more noteworthy than the peak figure is what happened afterward: from late 2025 into early 2026.
TVL contracted to around $5.6 billion, and at times dipped below $4 billion—mainly due to BTC price adjustments rather than net withdrawals, since the absolute amount of BTC remained stable around 56,000–60,000.
In my view, the main downside is that converting TVL into USD can make the number more prone to misunderstanding the protocol’s real health—BTC-relative trends look much more stable than USD-relative ones. @BabylonLabs_io #baby $BABY
When looking back at Bitcoin’s cycles in 2014, 2018, and 2022, I notice that each time there was a strong drop after a period of overheated growth.
If history continues to repeat, 2026 could still have one final pullback before the market confirms a return to a bullish trend, guys.
Personally, I’ll keep tracking price reactions at key support zones, instead of FOMO.
In this segment, I’ll focus on the TREND MEME + STOCK trend—there’s a possibility that next week could see a strong wave.
Anyone who wants to wait for the meme + stock trend play can connect and set up a web3 wallet on Binance HERE. I’ll share the ship/boat with you. 👇👇 https://web3.binance.com/referral?ref=N7CB1APG
I just rechecked the TBV testnet information and found that the official public figure is about 3 hours for one peg-in cycle, not 2 hours as many circulated summary posts suggest. This could be due to confusion with an earlier internal benchmark figure.
According to the actual timeline: the initial step of signing the BTC lock transaction with a Taproot script takes a few minutes. But the longest part is waiting to accumulate enough confirmation blocks on the Bitcoin chain to ensure safety before the vault state is reflected on Ethereum in the form of a vaultBTC.
I noticed this is the strongest optimization from Babylon compared with the earlier trial version—reducing the time by more than 3 times versus before, while also cutting the corresponding on-chain fees.
The point to watch is that the 3-hour figure is measured under stable network conditions. It’s still unclear what the real latency would be when the Bitcoin mempool is congested. @BabylonLabs_io #baby $BABY
When comparing data, by the end of 2025, at the Founders Call Q4, @BabylonLabs_io reported that the staking TVL reached about 60,000 BTC—equivalent to roughly $5–6 billion. At that time, the protocol had just run a trial mainnet for USDC lending using native BTC, and it had not yet expanded the TBV to the public.
Entering early 2026, TVL did not continue to grow; instead, it shrank to below $4 billion at one point. Although earlier it had hit a peak of more than $7 billion in mid-2025—that is, a negative variance versus the peak—not the continuous growth many people assumed.
I noticed this lines up with the period when the BTC market adjusted its price, suggesting that most TVL fluctuations still track coin price more than new net capital inflows.
In my view, a more reliable figure than TVL is the absolute amount of BTC, which remains around 55,000–60,000. This better reflects more stable long-term confidence than the USD-converted value. @BabylonLabs_io #baby $BABY
$grvt will be launched on Binance Alpha on July 30.
This is one of the projects that many of you have been working on—whoever farms Alpha and has enough points (240) will receive an airdrop.
If you’ve been farming Binance Alpha, you can check this one here. In addition, you can sign up for the Web3 wallet in advance here to claim right away. https://web3.binance.com/referral?ref=N7CB1APG
🚨 Could $57,000 be Bitcoin’s next destination? BTC just lost the 63,700 USD mark, causing around 305 million USD in positions to be liquidated. Since the start of the week, the total liquidation value across the entire crypto market has exceeded 1.23 billion USD. Get ready for a deal on Binance Web3—brothers, join here! https://web3.binance.com/referral?ref=N7CB1APG What’s notable is that the 30-day liquidation map is showing a major imbalance: $4.04 billion in short positions
$ONDO candles look healthy, bro, right? I checked and found that the team is planning to develop a DEX product. Not sure if it can compete, but bro, just follow along. These candles can break easily and pump 20-30% a lot. If you trade this, you can time it around: 0.38–0.4 Target: 30–50% STL: 10%
These are my personal opinions—do your own research. $ONDO 👇
I just skimmed the doc for @BabylonLabs_io and found that this set of three tools isn’t meant to be showcased in a transparent, marketing-style way; instead, each tool addresses a different layer of risk.
Explorer lets you directly inspect the blocked status on the Babylon Genesis mainnet, so everyone can verify the delegation without having to trust reports from the team.
Staking Portal is where the operations truly happen with full self-custody—no intermediary custodian.
And the new Docs are the part I appreciate most, because they don’t only guide staking; they also publicly include the technical specs of TBV, the security report, and the original whitepaper.
In the way I see it, what makes these three tools different from other projects is that the docs aren’t separated from the product. To understand the risks before locking BTC, users have a real way to look things up—not just a marketing FAQ to read. #baby $BABY
In the first 30 days, opened Cap-2 @BabylonLabs_io in October 2024, witnessing a nearly vertical rise: limitless TVL, opened within just a few blocks, and immediately drew in 23,857 BTC, equivalent to $2 billion.
This kind of growth only happens in the early FOMO phase at the start of the cycle, when everyone is afraid of missing out on staking.
Compared with the most recent 30 days, the picture is completely different: TVL fluctuates around $4–5.6 billion, and even dropped 32% when Lombard withdrew 14,929 BTC during the finality provider conversion.
So now, increases and decreases depend more on internal operations than on new capital flooding in.
In the way I see it, the early phase was growth driven by events, while the current phase is growth driven by structure—slower but more real, and less dependent on launch hype. @BabylonLabs_io #baby $BABY
ETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE $2,000 MILESTONE – HAS THE ALTCOIN SEASON STARTED?
ETH IS MOVING TOWARD THE $2,000 MILESTONE – HAS THE ALTCOIN SEASON STARTED? Ethereum is showing positive signs after several months of fairly quiet trading. In just 30 days, the price of ETH has risen by about 30%, reflecting that buying pressure is returning and market sentiment is gradually becoming more optimistic. Guys using Binance web3, come here 👇👇 https://web3.binance.com/referral?ref=N7CB1APG Notably, ETH took just 55 days to return to the $1,982 area, an important milestone that previously acted as a strong resistance zone.
BTC IS A FINAL SHOCK ABOUT TO FALL? DON'T GET CAUGHT IN THE PRICE-RISE TRAP!
🚨 $BTC IS A FINAL SHOCK ABOUT TO FALL? DON'T GET CAUGHT IN THE PRICE-RISE TRAP! The market is giving off a very optimistic vibe, but it’s precisely times like this that often make many investors lose their guard. If we look at previous Bitcoin cycles, we’ll notice a common pattern: before forming a real bottom, the price often shows a strong rebound to lure in capital, and only then does it enter the final drop.
It is worth noting that the TBV whitepaper for @BabylonLabs_io is not the only document worth reading. The technical PDF posted on docs babylonlab is where the empirical evidence is provided—showing that the vault operates with minimal on-chain overhead, something that many popular articles tend to omit.
At the same time, I find the article on onchainbitcoin.substack.com far more valuable than PR pieces: the author previously discussed directly with the Babylon team on X.
It then lays out four mandatory conditions for a BTC loan to be truly trustless, and concludes that TBV only reaches a trust-minimized level—not absolute trustless, despite the name.
The current scale of the system is about 56,800 BTC, equivalent to 5.6 billion USD—large enough that this rebuttal is no longer mere academic debate. If I had to choose just one document for deep understanding, I would pick the rebuttal first, then read the whitepaper afterward for cross-checking. #baby $BABY